The Early Oil: Flemington

HERALD Sun racing writer Matt Stewart enters the fray and gives his expert take on the challenging Flemington meeting on Saturday.

Race 1. The Red Rock Deli Plate, won by Yellen, ridden by Hugh Bowman (purple sleeves). Picture: Jay Town Tuesday November 5, 2015. Melbourne, Australia. OaksDay15

HERALD Sun racing writer Matt Stewart enters the fray and gives his expert take on the challenging Flemington meeting on Saturday.

Track: Good (4). Rail: True.

Weather: Possible shower 19C.

EXPERTS HAVE SAY: WEEKEND BEST BETS

EXPERTS HAVE SAY: BEAT THE BOOKIE VALUE BETS

SETBACK: TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS, BUT MICK TO PUSH ON

RACE ONE

Virtually impossible. PERITUS (10) was solid on debut and the two who finished second and third have since won. May have a little more upside than most her rivals. LAHQA (8) resumes. Beating older horses in a BM64 at Geelong (albeit narrowly) suggests she’s handy. DOWN THE HATCH speared up the inside first-up when caught the eye and has won second up. KALABEK (3) would go close if repeated her effort from two starts back and the addition of a tongue tie might help.

SUGGESTED BET: Nil.

RACE TWO

MR PAGO (8) was backed off the map first-up and couldn’t rein rivals in off soft tempo. Drawn to get OK run with cover here from middle gate and has excellent second up record. Not often Melham links up with Hayes/Dabernig but does so with MIHANY (5) who led into a headwind at Bendigo and ran every bit as well as winner NOT A HAPPY CAMPER (7), who had cover. ROCK SPUR (11) ran favourite in that race and ran an OK fifth when appeared cluttered for room. DIVINE MR ARTIE (10) chased the impressive Rillito at the Valley and won’t find this any harder. Chances to DUKE OF BRUNSWICK (1), ASHDAM (3) and A LOTTA LOVE (6).

SUGGESTED BET: Each-way No. 8.

RACE THREE

Damien Lane is winning on broomsticks since his return and he can win on BADAJOZ (1), who is genuinely promising and will benefit greatly from sound first-up run at Canterbury. Stablemate ANTELUCAN (2) ran well in better race last start and is a straight winner. DATE NIGHT (7) was super impressive on debut. This is obviously harder but chance, as is WELL SIGHTED (5) who might appreciate bigger track and gets Maher/Zahra combo. NICCOCO (11) raced on-speed in good race at Valley and battled on strongly. Ellerton/Zahra are flying and HETUKA ZARSHO (8) won well at Kilmore.

SUGGESTED BET: Each-way No. 1

RACE FOUR

Good race featuring some “carnival’’ names. DAN ZEPHYR (10) and BURNING FRONT (6) were both excellent at Pakenham in good race, won by Burning Front. Both drop a stack in weight and can measure up. RED BOMBER (2) was a victim of the on-pace bias on Ballarat Cup Day and ran OK. Too good to ignore. GRACIOUS PROSPECT (4) is fully fit and will be a strong on-pace chance. Big watch Weir pair HONORIUS (5) and SIGNOFF (1).

SUGGESTED BET: Each-way No. 10.

Second Bullet should be cherry ripe to put in a solid performance on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

RACE FIVE

Hard to be mad keen given this lot is pretty even but SECOND BULLET (5) is fully fit and playing at home. Was seven weeks between runs at Pakenham and should improve off it. OUR VOODOO PRINCE (1) has been “up’’ as long as the West Gate Bridge but (typically for Weir) just keeps putting in. BLACK JAG (3) was aided by an escalator six off the fence second up but was still good and will run well. LONGERON (4) is entitled to be bombarded with rotten tomatoes and was pretty horrid at Traralgon. Only upside is bigger track.

SUGGESTED BET: Each-way No. 5.

RACE SIX

I’M A TIGER (13) was ridden the perfect 10 by Higgins at Bendigo but effort still good when run down late by talented Turbo Street. Not much depth here and he has huge chance at big odds. FLYING LIGHT (15) gets Lane and comes off tenacious on-pace effort at the Valley. HIPSTER GIRL (14) was massive at Sale, working hard in the run before kept surging. Gets Melham. CRIMSON CAPE (5) won that Sale race and chance here although Hipster Girl’s run was better. Chuck a beach towel over the rest of the field.

SUGGESTED BET: Key quaddie runners are No. 13, 14 and 15.

RACE SEVEN

Hard to see TASHBEEH (1) being beaten here. Last two runs through carnival simply huge. Gets claim and good barrier. What’s not to like? ORION (2) was one of many disadvantaged by on-pace bias at Ballarat and can lift sharply. BELORUM (11) never runs badly but never wins either. CLEMO (12) was excellent against the pattern at Ballarat and returns to Flemington, where he goes well. Next best SADAQA (4).

SUGGESTED BET: No. 1 the win.

Durendal and Damian Lane combine to get the chocolates last month. Picture: David Crosling

RACE EIGHT

Very good race. Lane holds the aces on DURENDAL (9) who can go in or out from middle gate; if there’s a preferred part of track. Super solid winner at Ballarat and good chance to keep the winning run going. BOOMWAA (11) was far better than appears on face value at the Valley. Rails was off and he was hammered on-pace. Can lift sharply. BRITISH GENERAL (3) and SISTINE DEMON (4) were both terrific first-up and are very good horses. But both are drawn in (not usually preferred up straight, especially for off-pacers like Sistine Demon) and reckon better bets once they get to 1400m. Next best SARAJEVO (10) and NICOSCENE (7).

SUGGESTED BET: Each-way No. 9

RACE NINE

Race of few chances and best start from near the bottom. YELLEN (10) monstered her rivals at the Valley, classes above. Wide draw here should actually play to her advantage so long as rails not red hot. Big strider who should just gobble them up. FELICIENNE (11) had been working to a win before impressive Valley effort and has claims. SEA SPRAY (12) is a deadset money muncher but placed two of three at Flemington. RING DA BELLE (8) is down in class.

SUGGESTED BET: Each-way No. 10.

Herald Sun chief form analyst Michael Manley is on leave.