Early Oil: Caulfield tips, race-by-race analysis with Michael Manley

Although the Regal Roller Stakes will present Begood Toya Mother with a new challenge at 1200m, form analyst Michael Manley doesn’t think it will pose any issues for the rich talent.

Emerging talent Begood Toya Mother can continue on where he left off when he contests the Listed 1200m Regal Roller Stakes at Caulfield.

Begood Toya Mother pulled together an unbeaten five-run campaign through the autumn and winter, culminating in an explosive, all-the-way, five-length romp in a 1440m Benchmark 84 at Caulfield.

BEST BET

BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (R7, No. 9)

VALUE BET

CAUSEWAY GIRL (R9, No. 10)

EARLY QUADDIE

1,2,5/1,5,6,7,8,9,11/2,3,6/1,2,3,4

$100 Flexi for 39.68%

BIG6

2,3,6/1,2,3,4/1,5/9/1,4,11/4,5,6,10,12

$100 flexi for 27.77%

QUADDIE

Race 6: 1,4,5,6,7

Race 7: 7,9

Race 8: 1,4,5,11

Race 9: 3,4,5,6,10,11,12

$100 flexi for 35.71%

Stream over 50 sports live & anytime on your TV or favourite device with KAYO SPORTS. The biggest Aussie sports and the best from overseas. Just $25/month. No lock-in contract. Get your 14-day free trial instantly.

WEEKEND BEST BETS: WHO TO BACK AT THE TRACK

RACE 1: 1100M BM78 HANDICAP 12.15PM

Hard to go past the flying Brisbane mare PIPPIE (12) who resumed from a spell with a brilliant all the way win at Doomben by three and a quarter lengths eased down. She showed her class last spring in Melbourne with a close seventh behind Sunlight in the Quezette Stakes. From barrier one, Ben Melham can lead or tuck in. Another promising sprinter DIAMOND EFFORT (16) resumes. She’s also only had four starts for two wins and a second and could graduate to good class races this spring. TONY NICCONI (2) has been a little disappointing but if he found his best form he looks well placed in a BM78. GODDODIN won well at Caulfield two starts ago before solid effort at Flemington. BLONDIE has trialled well and has won first-up twice.

SUGGESTED BET: PIPPIE THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pippie $2.70-$2.30 ($800 @ $2.60)

RACE 2: 1700M BM84 HANDICAP 12.50PM

BENITOITE (2) is a promising mare who was perfectly ridden by Damien Oliver to win over 1600m last start at this track. Ollie stays with her and she should be suited by the extra 100m. She only goes up 1.5kgs. She’s won four of her six starts and had no luck in the two losses. Sydney mare TORYJOY (1) is in great form with wins at two of her last three starts which were at Rosehill and Randwick where she led throughout. She’ll be ridden by Kerrin McEvoy. RAT WITH GOLDTOOTH (5) is a model of consistency and she’ll be better suited over 1700m than 1400m. COLLECTABLE (7) finished on well for third behind Benitoite last start. PAINT THE TOWN TWO (6) and HUNBOSHI (8) are racing consistently.

SUGGESTED BET: BENITOITE THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Benitoite $3.40-$3.60-$3.50 ($1,500 e/w @ $3.60/$1.60, $800 @ $3.50, $500 @ $3.50), Rat With Goldtooth $4.40-$3.40 ($500 @ $4.40, $500 @ $4.20, $300 @ $4, $500 @ $3.60, $5000 @ $3.50)

Snitzepeg (centre) ran home well for third over 1400m at Caulfield last start.

RACE 3: 1600M, HANDICAP 1.25PM

A difficult race with well performed international horses either making their Australian debuts or resuming from spells after contesting feature races. Horses resuming include DURETTO (1) who hasn’t started since he finished fourth in the Caulfield Cup. Chris Waller’s YULONG PRINCE (2) won one of South Africa’s feature w-f-a races last year. NEW UNIVERSE (6) has a race fitness edge. Strong win last start at The Valley where he defeated Pacodali over 1600m. SNITZEPEG (11) ran home well for third over 1400m at Caulfield last start. GUIZOT (7) is always a chance in this type of race. Team Williams has KING OF LEOGRANCE (9) who won three of his five starts in France and two other well credentialed gallopers in DOUGLAS MCARTHUR (5) and US ARMY RANGER (4) resuming. Former German galloper BEAU BALMAIN (8) has been impressive in his two Australian starts for placings at Caulfield and Sandown Hillside.

SUGGESTED BET: NEW UNIVERSE THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Douglas Macarthur $6.50-$5, Snitzepeg $5.50-$5 ($500 @ $5.50, $300 @ $5)

RACE 4: 1400M BM84 HANDICAP 2PM

Classy galloper AGE OF CHIVALRY (6) had little luck when he resumed at The Valley when he finished fifth behind Usain Bowler as he was held up for a run around the turn. He charged home when in the clear. Last preparation as a three-year-old he finished second to top gallopers Mr Quickie and The Inevitable. In that same race at The Valley ROX THE CASTLE (2) worked hard in the early stages before he tired to finish a close-up ninth. He’s had one start over 1400m for an easy win at Flemington. Tassie galloper SHOT OF IRISH (3) proved too good for SMART ELISSIM (4) at Sandown Lakeside running away in the closing stages for an easy win. Stablemate FIVE KINGDOM (4) also has talent. SILENT ROAR (13) is better suited over 1600m but has the talent to win this.

SUGGESTED BET: AGE OF CHIVALRY THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Age Of Chivalry $3.30-$2.30 ($450 @ $3.20, $500 @ $2.90, $500 @ $2.80, $1,100 @ $2.70, $1,000 @ $2.60, $650 @ $2.60, $480 @ $2.60, $400 @ $2.60 TWICE, $320 @ $2.60, $575 @ $2.50, $520 @ $2.50, $400 @ $2.50, $500 @ $2.30, $300 @ $2.25)

RACE 5: 1100M GP 3 VAIN STAKES 2.40PM

Godolphin’s BIVOUAC (2) loves it wet and James Cummings is sure to have him primed for this. He finished fourth in the Group 2 Todman Stakes behind Yes Yes Yes before he easily won the Group 3 Kindergarten Stakes at Randwick on a soft 7 track. DUBIOUS (1) is a classy colt but he failed at his only run on a heavy track. He finished fifth in the Group 1 Kingsford-Smith Stakes at Eagle Farm at his last start. SEBRAKATE (3) bolted in at Flemington at his last start. At his debut he finished second to Kiamichi at Rosehill. STAR SURPRISE (4) overcame difficulties to win at this track last start. CONDO’S EXPRESS (5) powered home to win at The Valley last start. The same scenario could present itself here.

SUGGESTED BET: BIVOUAC THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note

RACE 6: 1100M GP 3 QUEZETTE STAKES 3.20PM

Cracking race. Star two-year-old filly LYRE (1) resumes after a first campaign where she won the Blue Diamond Stakes and finished a slightly unlucky third in the Golden Slipper Stakes. She has to give weight to her rivals but she’s good enough to do so. Magic Millions winner EXHILARATES (4) resumes and has to be respected. CHEER LEADER (6) resumes and showed a lot of potential as a two-year-old. ABSOLUTE FLIRT (5) will have a fitness advantage after an unlucky first-up third at The Valley. LANKAN STAR (7) failed in two Sydney runs but she finished runner-up in the Blue Diamond before that.

SUGGESTED BET: LYRE THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Lyre $6-$5.50 ($500 @ $5.50, $500 e/w @ $5.50/$2.20), Exhilarates $8.50-$7.50, Lankan Star $13-$10

Begood Toya Mother will find the slow conditions to his liking.

RACE 7: 1200M REGAL ROLLER STAKES 4PM

BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (9) created a huge impression last campaign with five wins from five starts but the best part of that was he seemed to get better with every start. He’s facing his hardest test but he’ll roll forward and with his light-weight will take catching. He also loves it wet. Adelaide visitor BEHEMOTH (7) will settle off the speed and charge home. Two starts ago he finished second in The Goodwood before resuming with a second to Assertive Approach in the Adelaide Lightning Stakes. Both of the Lindsay Park runner’s FUNDAMENTALIST (1) and LONG LEAF (6) are classy performers and have looked sharp in recent Flemington jump-outs. HAUNTED (5) was unlucky last start at Randwick when he charged home for third. He has race fitness on his side. ANTAH (8) is a smart horse resuming.

SUGGESTED BET: BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Behemoth $4.80-$3.60 ($1200 @ $4.80, $500 @ $4.40, $350 @ $4, $400 @ $3.90, $500 @ $3.80, $440 @ $3.70)

RACE 8: 1400M GP 2 PB LAWRENCE STAKES 4.40PM

Quite a few arrows point in the HARTNELL (1) direction but happy to stick with the Tassie champ MYSTIC JOURNEY (11) who completed her last campaign with wins in the Australian Guineas and the All-Star Mile. She’s won her past six starts and has won 10 of 13. She’s had one start on a soft track for a win. Hartnell finished second to her in the All-Star Mile. He loves Caulfield and has a first and a second in this race to his credit. He also loves a slow track. He’ll also roll forward in a race where there mightn’t be a lot of pace. CLIFF’S EDGE (4) will also go forward. He resumed with a sound third in the Bletchingly Stakes. He also handles the wet. FIFTY STARS (5) should be in for a big campaign. He looked sharp in a recent Flemington jump-out. KENEDNA (9) is an under-rated mare and has the talent to run a big race.

SUGGESTED BET: HARTNELL EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Hartnell $6.50-$4.20 ($200 @ $5, $498 @ $5, $500 @ $4.20), Mystic Journey $1.80-$2

Tasmanian mare Mystic Journey makes her return to the track.

RACE 9: 1100M, HANDICAP 5.15PM

You could build a case for every starter. CAUSEWAY GIRL (10) is two from two first-up. She also finished fourth behind Classique Legend on a soft 5 track at Group 2 level at Randwick. VICTORY KINGDOM (12) was a Group 2 and Group 3 placegetter last autumn. She chased hard in a recent jump-out when second to Fragonard. MISS IANO (6) has race fitness on her side and is in great form. She swooped home to defeat JORDA (9) and MISS NORWAY (8) over 1100m at this track last start. WORKING FROM HOME (4) is a Caulfield winner and likes it wet. GREY SHADOW (5) has won three of four at this track and distance. BELLA VELLA (11) was impressive winning in Adelaide last start where she sprinted home powerfully.

SUGGESTED BET: CAUSEWAY GIRL EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Miss Iano $11-$6 ($200 e/w @ $9.50/$3.20)