Australian Guineas 2016: Herald Sun racing writer Matt Stewart runs the rule over one of the best editions of this classic

BETTING/ANALYSIS: NOT for many a year has there been so much interest in the Australian Guineas. Herald Sun racing writer Matt Stewart analyses the crackerjack field for Saturday’s feature.

Derby Day Race 7, The AAMI Victoria Derby, won by Tarzino (7) ridden by Craig Newitt and trained by Mick Price. DerbyDay15 Picture Jay Town.

NOT for many a year has there been so much interest in the Australian Guineas. Herald Sun racing writer Matt Stewart analyses the crackerjack field for Saturday’s feature.

THE EARLY OIL: FLEMINGTON

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BESTS

STABLE WATCH: INSIDE MAIL FOR RANDWICK

$750,000 AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS

FLEMINGTON, SATURDAY 4.30PM

THE FIELD

1 MAHUTA 9 D Weir B Rawiller 56.5kg $9

2 TARZINO 5 M Price C Newitt 56.5kg $7

3 VANBRUGH 1 C Waller J Winks 56.5kg $26

4 READY FOR VICTORY 5 M Price G Boss 56.5kg $35

5 XTRAVAGANT 3 S Autridge & J Richards M Cameron 56.5kg $3.50

6 BON AURUM 11 C Maher J Hill 56.5kg $35

7 SOVEREIGN NATION 8 D Hayes & T Dabernig L Currie 56.5kg $26

8 TIVACI 3 M Moroney N Hall 56.5kg $17

9 PALENTINO 16 D Weir M Zahra 56.5kg $7.50

10 RIVER WILD 6 G Waterhouse B Prebble 56.5kg $17

11 SNOOPY 14 Team Hawkes D Dunn 56.5kg $51

12 TULSA 15 M Moroney S Arnold 56.5kg $18

13 JAMEKA 12 C Maher D Oliver 54.5kg $17

14 PERFECT REFLECTION 2 D Weir B Melham 54.5kg $10

15 RISQUE 10 D Hayes & T Dabernig D Lane 54.5kg $12

16 SAILING BY 7 M Price M Dee 54.5kg $35

MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS

THE FACTORS

TRACK: Good 3

RAIL: True

WEATHER: Partly cloudy, 26C

Star New Zealand colt Xtravagant arrives on our shores with a huge reputation. Picture: Nick Reed

MATT STEWART’S ANALYSIS

MAHUTA: The picket fence might be about to be smashed. Interesting that Weir was keen to run at Caulfield last week and maybe avoid this, sensing Mahuta may have struck a race he just can’t win. Will be high pressure upfront from Xtravagant and Co. Hard to say “no’’ to a horse that doesn’t lose — but I am.

TARZINO: That rare beast — a genuinely classy Victoria Derby winner. Returned with eye-catching fast close in the Autumn Stakes. On face value guaranteed hectic tempo will suit but the Xtravagant’s won’t be stopping. Can he bridge the gap?

VANBURGH: He’s no Bernborough but he’s a good, solid staying colt. Doesn’t appear quite dynamic enough to win this, even if it’s last man standing. But Waller is a real party pooper.

READY FOR VICTORY: Not particularly well named in respect of his chances here. Gifted but essentially a bit of a villain.

XTRAVAGANT: The spruik will either prove just that — extravagant — or he is good as the videos suggest. Relentless on-pacer who asserts himself the moment the gates open. But this is his first big adventure and these locals aren’t mugs. If he wins well he is the next great NZ champion.

BON AURUM: One of a handful of serious wildcard chances. Has been ticking over without luck with this big prize on the horizon. Drawn to swoop hard and has done it hard from wide gates and prevailed before. Chance.

SOVEREIGN NATION: If you like Bon Aurum a bit, you must entertain this horse, a bit. Been doing similar things in similar races. First four chance.

TIVACI: Eventual winner out of that controversial protest a fortnight ago. Often those horses start over the odds next start, especially by those who reckon the “winner’’ – in this case Palentino — was robbed.

PALENTINO: Probably just as disrupted by interference last start as Tivaci and was holding that horse on wire. The gate is a real issue, unless Flemington returns to being favourable for those wide/no cover on the cambered turns. Gifted.

RIVER WILD: Could Gai be the sleeping giant? Missed start, wove and made up many lengths last start. Totally inconclusive. Goes in wide quaddies.

SNOOPY: Nice horse but no chance — that’s how strong this race is.

TULSA: The forgotten horse of the controversial protest; another bound and he probably wins. Will be scorching late.

JAMEKA: Grand filly but you suspect this is the autumn of the colts. Or at least the Guineas of the colts. Each-way.

PERFECT REFLECTION: Could the addition of the blinkers be Weiry’s great masterstroke? She was OK a fortnight ago but not good enough to win this. But with the blinkers, who knows?

RISQUE: Well named. Good, classy win first start here but this is a very good race. Suggesting can’t win.

SAILING BY: Excellent at Caulfield but that was behind Mahuta and I’m saying Mahuta can’t win.

Powerful pacesetter Mahuta is certain to pull them a long at a decent speed. Picture: Getty Images

THE SPEED

Should be fireworks, at least until they find their order. MAHUTA is a deadset frontrunner, but so is XTRAVAGANT. Suspect the rest will let them go. RIVER WILD will be close if it gets away cleanly. SNOOPY and JAMEKA can race close.

THE FACTS

HISTORY

First run in 1986 as a Group 3 race won by True Version;

Run at Group 1 level since 1987;

Held over 2000m from 1998 to 2000;

Four fillies have won — Triscay (1991), Miss Finland (2007), Shamrocker (2011), Mosheen (2012).

NOTABLE WINNERS

Zabeel (1990), Triscay (1991), Mahogany (1994), Flying Spur (1996), Pins (2000), Reset (2004), Apache Cat (2006), Miss Finland (2007), Mosheen (2012) and Shamus Award (2014).

TALKING POINTS

RUN on the same day, over the same distance as the Group 1 Randwick Guineas for three-year-olds in Sydney.

BOOM New Zealand colt Xtravagant makes his Australian debut having won two Group 1 races.

FOUR fillies, including Group 1 winners Jameka, Risque and Perfect Reflection are acceptors.

TARZINO could provide trainer Mick Price and jockey Craig Newitt with their third Australian Guineas after Light Fantastic (2008) and Heart Of Dreams (2009)

GAI Waterhouse and Brett Prebble will chase their second-straight win with River Wild after combining with Wandjina in 2015.

WHAT CONNECTIONS ARE SAYING

“It’s going to make it tough. He’s going to need an extra good ride now.”

— Jockey Mark Zahra on Palentino who has the outside barrier.

“The draw is OK, not great. We’re just going to rely on the speed. If they go quick enough, he’ll be hard to beat.”

— jockey Craig Newitt on Tarzino.

MATT STEWART SELECTS

1st TARZINO

2nd Xtravagant

3rd Palentino

4th Perfect Reflection