Beat The Bookie value bets

OUR experts try to boost your bank balance with the best value bets of the weekend in the major cards around the nation.

Caulfield Guineas Day

OUR experts try to boost your bank balance with the best value bets of the weekend in the major cards around the nation.

SATURDAY MEETINGS (AEDT Times)

RANDWICK (9 races, start 12.20pm), FLEMINGTON (9 races, start 12.40pm),

DOOMBEN (8 races, start 1.10pm), MORPHETTVILLE (8 races, start 1.24pm),

ASCOT (8 races, start 3.38pm).

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

RANDWICK

RAY THOMAS (Daily Telegraph). Form: 009

RULE THE RIVER

Race 8, No. 7

Is resuming off a short let-up where she was in outstanding form over summer, racing through her grades with four straight wins before an unlucky third in the Takeover Target Stakes behind Howmuchdoyouloveme. Rule The River is very effective at 1000m, she will enjoy sitting just in behind the leaders from her soft barrier and at $17 she is very good each way value.

TAB Fixed Odds: $17

NIC ASHMAN (Daily Telegraph). Form: x1489

BOHEMIAN LILY

Race 3, No. 5

Been going well in trackwork and has tackled Group company at her last five runs. Drops back to Listed grade here.

TAB Fixed Odds: $7

STABLE WATCH: INSIDE MAIL FOR RANDWICK

STEPHEN ZAMMIT (Daily Telegraph). Form: 18123

SHIRAZ

Race 8, No. 3

This Tony McEvoy gelding resumes here and has an impressive fresh record. He is ultra-consistent with 10 wins to his credit and wasn’t asked to do much in a recent barrier trial, Has the services of Hugh Bowman to help him along.

TAB Fixed Odds: $6

JOHN DAVIS (Daily Telegraph). Form: 30082

SAVOUREUX

Race 9, No. 6

Caught the eye in the Triscay Stakes when a fast-closing third to Sultry Feeling and Peeping. Freshened nicely for this assignment and Tommy Berry has stuck, which speaks for itself.

TAB Fixed Odds: $11

SHAYNE O’CASS (Sportsman). Form: 35120

FURNACES

Race 6, No. 2

Is the highest rated horse in the Fireball (6s 2-2-1) and has form around Vancouver and Chautauqau (oh and Flamberge) which is bound to carry him a long way in a Listed race. All I needed to see from him to have on top was a good barrier trial and in his case, there has been two.

TAB Fixed Odds: $5

DARREN PRENDERGAST (Superracing). Form: 40042

EGYPTIAN SYMBOL

Race 6, No. 10

Talented filly who didn’t have much luck over summer. Sent for a break after running third to Mahuta on the Gold Coast. Has a good fresh record and will be storming home late.

TAB Fixed Odds: $6

SIMON MOY (Superracing). Form: 2x15x

CRITERION

Race 5, No. 1

First-up since failing in Hong Kong late last year. Goes well fresh and has the pedigree to upset these at really good odds.

TAB Fixed Odds: $9.50

MARKETS: TAB FIXED ODDS

FLEMINGTON

MATT STEWART (Herald Sun). Form: 41015

CHOOSE

Race 8, No. 9

High class mare. Well suited, well drawn. Can’t miss each-way.

TAB Fixed Odds: $6.50

MICHAEL MANLEY (Herald Sun). Form: x2490

WAWAIL

Race 8, No. 1

Chopped out in the closing stages at Caulfield last week behind Azkadelia so should have finished closer. This is slightly easier, likes this track and should get a great on-speed run. $6 looks nice each-way value.

TAB Fixed Odds: $6.50

DARYL TIMMS (Herald Sun). Form: 62831

JESSY BELLE

Race 8, No. 2

Likes the track and always performs well second-up.

TAB Fixed Odds: $7.50

Dan Zephyr, ridden by Michael Dee, gets the better of his rivals at Flemington on February 20. Picture: George Salpigtidis

CHRIS VERNUCCIO (Superracing). Form: 5x211

DAN ZEPHYR

Race 5, No. 6

Aiming for four in a row but doesn’t look to be slowing down. Ran quick time last start and again placed perfectly on the minimum weight.

TAB fixed odds: $4

NICK QUINN (TAB). Form: 08098

CREATIVITY

Race 2, No. 11

First starter who has not been seen at the public trials but has been working stylishly in trackwork and should run a big race on debut.

TAB Fixed Odds: $4.80

MARKETS: TAB FIXED ODDS

DOOMBEN

NATHAN EXELBY (The Courier-Mail). Form: x1801

I AM BOSS

Race 5, No. 1

Ignore the first up flop when he never got on the track off wide gate. Much kinder draw here and last time was his only top three miss at this track. Best form looks a benchmark here and prepared to bet against the fav who is 600 days between wins.

TAB Fixed Odds: $14

BEN DORRIES (The Courier-Mail). Form: 42601

CRAIGLEA WANDOO

Race 6, No. 2

Great odds for a gelding who has won 10 of 23, admittedly most in regional Qld. Was always wide last time and freshened for this, over a shorter trip. Draws perfectly and can win at big odds.

TAB Fixed Odds: $15

BRAD DAVIDSON (Gold Coast Bulletin). Form: 67860

OUTRAGED

Race 4, No. 1

I AM BOSS

Race 5, No. 1

Surprised to see the bookies put up $6 about Outraged and they have overreacted to the luckless run on Kaiser Franz last time out in my opinion. Yes, he goes up in weight but Outraged had a torrid run last start as well and should be much shorter than $6. I Am Boss is also over the odds at $14 and forget his run first-up when he was never on the track. Improves sharply second up and should get the gun run from barrier three.

TAB Fixed Odds: $6

TAB Fixed Odds: $14

MARKETS: TAB FIXED ODDS

MORPHETTVILLE

BEN SCADDEN (The Advertiser). Form: 68243

NEAPOLITAN

Race 5, No. 11

Well-regarded youngster from the Phillip Stokes stable who was narrowly beaten on debut by the smart Bullion Wolf as odds-on favourite in November. She’s since trialled impressively at Gawler and has drawn to enjoy a good trip. Worth following at double-figure odds.

TAB Fixed Odds: $13

LINCOLN MOORE (The Advertiser). Form: 6666x

COUNTER PULSE

Race 1, No. 1

Smart type first-up from a break. Looked good winning two consecutive before a solid effort in the Lightning Stakes behind Wild Rain. Unbeaten first-up and will take some beating.

TAB Fixed Odds: $4.40

MARKETS: TAB FIXED ODDS

FEATURE RACE MARKETS

AUSTRALIAN CUP

Flemington, March 12

$3.50 Bow Creek

$6.50 Our Ivanhowe, Preferment

$8 Suavito

$11 Xtravagant

$13 Almoonqith, Fenway, Rising Romance

$15+ Others

FULL MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS

GOLDEN SLIPPER

Rosehill, March 19

$3.50 Extreme Choice

$4.20 Capitalist

$8 Flying Artie (n/n)

$11 Astern

$15 Good Standing, Honesty Prevails, Scarlet Rain, Weatherly

$26+ Others

FULL MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS

DONCASTER MILE

Randwick, April 2

$4.60 Press Statement

$7.50 Winx

$9 First Seal

$11 Azkadellia, Kermadec

$! 5+ Others

FULL MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS

Note: Prices correct at time of publishing