Analysis: Newmarket Handicap — Matt Stewart dissects the field for Victoria’s premier sprint

MATT Stewart says a perfect alley means superstar Chautauqua may not need to produce his trademark late lunge in Saturday’s Newmarket Handicap.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - FEBRUARY 20: Dwayne Dunn riding Chautauqua celebrates with the crowd after winning race 7 the Black Caviar Lightning on Black Caviar Lightning Day at Flemington Racecourse on February 20, 2016 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images for VRC)

HERALD Sun racing writer Matt Stewart says a perfect alley means superstar Chautauqua may not need to produce his trademark late lunge in Saturday’s Newmarket Handicap.

THE EARLY OIL: FLEMINGTON

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

STABLE WATCH: INSIDE MAIL AT ROSEHILL

THE FACTORS

TRACK: Good 3

WEATHER: Humid, chance of showers in afternoon. 25C

RAIL: Out 3m

THE SPEED

CHARMED HARMONY is a natural leader but usually at 1400m around corners. Reckon SECRET AGENDA has more speed, with JAPONISME, CHURCHILL DANCER and KEEN ARRAY not far away.

THE FIELD

NEWMARKET HANDICAP

Flemington, Saturday 3.50pm

1 CHAUTAUQUA M, W & J Hawkes D Dunn 58kg $2.40

2 DELECTATION C Waller D Oliver 10 56kg $10

3 TIGER TEES J Pride 7 54kg $61

4 BLACK HEART BART D Weir D Lane 2 53.5kg $17

5 CHARMED HARMONY J Sadler Ms K Mallyon 1 53kg $101

6 JAPONISME C Waller C Williams 8 52.5kg $4.20

7 CHURCHILL DANCER D Hayes & T Dabernig M Dee (a) 6 52kg $26

8 THE QUARTERBACK R Griffiths CNewitt 9 52kg $19

9 KEEN ARRAY D Hayes & T Dabernig P Moloney 4 50kg $15

10 COUNTERATTACK C Waller G Boss 3 50kg $9

11 SECRET AGENDA M Price 5 50kg $15

MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS

Dwayne Dunn celebrates another Chautauqua victory down the Flemington straight. Picture: Getty Images

THE SKINNY

CHAUTAUQUA: The great escape artist. Leapt off the canvas to win the Lightning. No one really knows if there will be a fast lane or two down the increasingly perilous straight but he seems perfectly drawn to have one uninterrupted crack at them. Best horse, not badly weighted. Deserves to win.

DELECTATION: Steps to the same trip where he nailed Chautauqua up the straight last spring, albeit finding the right lane. Good enough first-up with an eye to this. Not as good as the grey and not pitched in at the weights to beat him but when Waller gang tackles he often wins — just a matter of which one.

TIGER TEES: The Nathan Ablett of his family. Serviceable but nowhere near as good as his half-brother Terravista, who has been scratched. Win might make family proud but would shock.

BLACK HEART BART: Weiry’s doing a Lang Hancock, the way he’s plundering the west’s riches. Another Perth newcomer to his yard and a high class, versatile sprinter/miler. Good fresh and Weir is winning everything.

CHARMED HARMONY: Effective at rolling along in the 1400m range but suspect lacks the sheer brilliance to first lead these, then hold them off.

JAPONISME: Waller’s got so many good horses that this bloke has never really been rated a star, but maybe he is. Burst Exosphere’s bubble in the spring, beaten a head by Chautauqua in the Lightning. Win would be an upset but maybe not a major one.

CHURCHILL DANCER: Like putting a Magna in the Bathurst 1000.

THE QUARTERBACK: Has a gangbuster finish but a far paler version of the ultimate gangbuster, Chautauqua. The handicap conditions give him a top-five chance.

KEEN ARRAY: He’s the rave horse up at Euroa but seemed to melt under the high pressure of the Oakleigh Plate. How’s he going to handle Chautauqua breathing down his neck?

COUNTERATTACK: Has beaten smart ones like Spill The Beans and Hellbent in Sydney and ran well in the Coolmore here last spring. Might not be much between him and stablemate Japonisme. Shock value.

SECRET AGENDA: Off and gone at Valley before being nailed late by a handy filly. Not sure if that translates to beating Chautauqua.

THE HISTORY

2015Brazen Beau Chris Waller J. Moreira $5.50

2014 Lankan Rupee Mick Price C. Schofield $6

2013Shamexpress Danny O’Brien C. Newitt $15

2012Hay List John McNair G. Schofield $3.80fav

2011 Black Caviar Peter Moody L. Nolen $1.18fav

* Race first run: 1874

* Bart Cummings holds the training record with eight winners

* Damien Oliver has ridden three winners

Chad Schofield and Lankan Rupee wins the Newmarket Handicap. Picture: Getty Images

TALKING POINTS

Can Chautauqua finally win a Group 1 race over the straight 1200m course at Flemington after three previous second placings.

* Chautauqua could become the fourth horse in 50 years to carry 58kg or more to victory in the Newmarket.

* A small field and the absence of Terravista, with a hoof problem, prompted connections of Secret Agenda to give the filly her chance.

* Japonisme will try to become the second Chris Waller-trained three-year-old to win after Brazen Beau was successful in 2015.

WHAT CONNECTIONS ARE SAYING

“Tom (Sadler) thought it was the firm ground but he can put in the odd ordinary one. The horse is good and hopefully he’s put that bad one away.”

— Charmed Harmoney’s trainer John Sadler

“Going back to that track that he’s had such a good record at, and the extra 100m on top of the Oakleigh Plate, you’d think it should be a really good race for him to run well in.”

— The Quarterback’s trainer Robbie Griffiths

“She might not get a lot of chances in Group 1s, in small fields and with no weight and if she runs a place it adds to her CV as a broodmare.”

— Secret Agenda’s trainer Mick Price

MATT STEWART SELECTS

1. CHAUTAUQUA

2. Counterattack

3. Delectation

4. Japonisme