Analysis: Matt Stewart runs the rule over the Memsie Stakes field

ANALYSIS: DARREN Weir’s tough sprinter Black Heart Bart primed to kick off spring campaign in style at Caulfield on Saturday.

Darren Weir’s tough sprinter Black Heart Bart primed to kick off spring campaign in style at Caulfield on Saturday.

THE EARLY OIL: CAULFIELD

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

Black Heart Bart should make his presence felt in the first Group 1 of the new Victorian season. Picture: Getty Images

MEMSIE STAKES (1400m)

Group 1, Caulfield, Saturday 4.10pm

1 PRINCE OF PENZANCE D Weir H Coffey 11 59kg

2 BLACK HEART BART D Weir B Rawiller 5 59kg

3 LORD OF THE SKY R Laing D Oliver 1 59kg - SCRATCHED

4 CHARMED HARMONY J Sadler T Sadler 3 59kg

5 HE OR SHE D & B Hayes & T Dabernig D Dunn 12 59kg

6 TASHBEEH D & B Hayes & T Dabernig C Parish 14 59kg

7 ALPINE EAGLE T McEvoy L Currie 6 59kg

8 MAHUTA D Weir J Allen 2 58.5kg

9 TARZINO M Price C Newitt 9 58.5kg

10 TAVAGO T Busuttin & N Young B Melham 8 58.5kg - SCRATCHED

11 PALENTINO D Weir M Zahra 10 58.5kg

12 TALLY J O’Shea M Dee (a) 13 58.5kg

13 RISING ROMANCE D & B Hayes & T Dabernig D Lane 4 57kg

14 SOFIA ROSA (NZ) S Marsh M Walker 7 56.5kg

BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

Lord Of The Sky is out for a month after suffering heat in a tendon. Picture: Getty Images

THE SKINNY with MATT STEWART

PRINCE OF PENZANCE

Can last year’s fluke fairytale horse be this year’s fair-dinkum defending Melbourne Cup champ? Mail is he is flying. Probably can’t win this but will surprise a few.

BLACK HEART BART

More like Big Heart Bart. Tough, relentless, classy sprinter. Perfectly drawn, you can bet he’s been trained to win this Group 1.

LORD OF THE SKY

LATE SCRATCHING

CHARMED HARMONY

Track and distance specialist and sprinter taking on mostly stayers, which gives him genuine top five chance. A win, however, would be an early spring bonus.

HE OR SHE

If they’re swooping late, he’s some sort of boilover chance. Has run some blinders fresh, mostly here.

TASHBEEH

Loomed to win first-up but lacked Sooboog’s zing. Barrier consigns him to peel back, run on mission but he’s in similar blowout category as He Or She.

ALPINE EAGLE

Can the substance match the style? Been spruik horse for over a year but needs a solid, consistent, classy campaign. Draw gives him chance to settle close enough to find out if he’s as good as the hype.

MAHUTA

Remains to be seen if he’s top class or merely placed to advantage at three. Finished in the pack first-up. Went OK. Drawn well here, will settle in great stalkers spot. Jury out.

Tarzino wins the Rosehill Guineas on Golden Slipper Day this year. Picture: Getty Images

TARZINO

One of the spring’s big expectation horses. Unravelled in ATC Derby and connections will be desperate for him to resurrect himself as a Cups horse. Will be thundering late.

TAVAGO

LATE SCRATCHING

PALENTINO

Was always going to improve lengths but he was genuinely plain first-up. Average sprinting stablemate Voodoo Lad left him for dead. Could find three lengths but needs to.

TALLY

Late improver last season, culminating in good Derby placing. Hard to judge if he’s truly classy or had a late season purple patch. Draw tricky.

RISING ROMANCE

Now a Cups perennial. Some chance on best but seemed to be going through the motions last prep. Dunno where she’s at.

SOFIA ROSA

Oaks-winning 4YO mares always create Caulfield Cup interest but proof will be in pudding. Not sure what she was beating last preparation.

MATT STEWART TIPS

1st BLACK HEART BART

2nd Tarzino

3rd Prince Of Penzance

4th Mahuta

THE FACTORS

Track: Soft 5

Rail: Out six metres.

Forecast: 16C. Overcast.

THE SPEED

LORD OF THE SKY (late scratching) and CHARMED HARMONY only know one way and that’s flat out so should be a fast speed. MAHUTA should get a great stalking spot and BLACK HEART BART won’t be too far away. Best swoopers TARZINO and PRINCE OF PENZANCE.

MICHAEL MANLEY BEST BETS

BEST BET

PRINCE OF BROOKLYN (Race 2, No. 9)

EARLY QUAD

4,9/5,6,8,11,13/2,3,4,6,7,12,17/1,2,4,6,13

$100 flexi for 28.57 per cent

VALUE BET

MISS PROMISCUITY ((Race 5, No. 13)

BIG6

2,3,12,17/1,2,6,13/1,2,5,9/2,8/4,9/1,2,5,13

$100 flexi for 9.76 per cent

QUADDIE

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9/2,8/4,6,9/1,2,4,5,8,9,11,12,13,14,15

$100 flexi for 19.84 per cent

SATURDAY MEETINGS (AEST Times)

ROSEHILL (9 races, start 12.10pm),

DOOMBEN (8 races, start 12.17pm),

CAULFIELD (9 races, start 12.25pm),

MORPHETTVILLE (8 races, 1.08pm),

BELMONT (7 races, start 3.18pm).