The Wolf: Redzel, Redkirk Warrior right at home down the straight

FOR racing purists, the Group 1 VRC Sprint Classic is just about the race of the Melbourne Cup carnival, writes punters.com.au form analyst JAMES LAMB.

FOR racing purists, the Group 1 VRC Sprint Classic is just about the race of the Melbourne Cup carnival, writes punters.com.au form analyst James Lamb.

Eight of the 14 runners have won at the highest level, with last year’s winner Redzel facing stiff opposition from both here and abroad.

In a first for the $1m event, we will see five internationally-trained horses front up, with the raiders not content with just plundering our staying riches.

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From a punting perspective, you’re getting great bang for your buck, with multiple-Group 1 winners Santa Ana Lane and Redkirk Warrior at double-figure odds.

The latter failed to fire in a two-start stint in the UK earlier this year but the Lindsay Park gelding is a completely different beast at Flemington, winning four of his five starts down the straight. It was only three starts ago that he knocked off Brave Smash and Merchant Navy in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap over this route, running brilliant time in the process.

Redkirk Warrior has an excellent record down the straight at Flemington. Picture: Getty Images

While Redkirk Warrior does appear over the odds at $12, it’s hard to go past Redzel, a dual winner of The Everest and two-time Group 1 winner.

The Snowden-trained son of Snitzel has won two of his three starts down the Flemington straight and is coming off a fairly dominant win in Australia’s richest race last start. The form out of The Everest has not surprisingly stacked up incredibly well, with third-placegetter Osborne Bulls recording a scintillating win at his next outing, and Brave Smash winning the Group 1 Manikato.

Redzel’s racing pattern also makes him an attractive betting proposition, with the gelding capable of leading or taking a sit just off the pace. Luck, or lack thereof, is rarely a factor with the $15 million-earner.

In what promises to be a fascinating spectacle, a two-horse play on Redzel and Redkirk Warrior makes the most appeal.

VRC SPRINT CLASSIC SPEED MAP

By this stage of the Flemington carnival, you would imagine jockeys will be using the middle and outside sections of the track in these straight-course races. Redzel should be prominent from barrier eight, with Spirit Of Valor reasonably handy out wider. Invincible Star is the quickest beginner of those drawn closest to the inside rail.

Redzel will be up near the speed and take plenty of running down. Picture: Getty Images

$100 BETTING STRATEGY

$70 on REDZEL (1) at $4.80

$30 on REDKIRK WARRIOR (4) at $12

CUP DAY RETURN

$100 Cup betting strategy returned $100 (no damage done)

$100 two-race play returned $187.50 with Fifty Stars winning and Life Less Ordinary placing

$75 quaddie returned $0

So small win overall

JAMES LAMB’S TWO BEST

R8, No.3 BLAIR HOUSE

His form around Benbatl reads incredibly well for this and he should get every possible chance from barrier two.

R4, No.5 ULMANN

Looms as a big improver second-up after getting back to last at Moonee Valley last start. This track suits his style of racing and he’ll appreciate the rise to 1400m.

FOUR RACES TO PLAY

RACE 1 – MELBOURNE’S OWN 3AW TROPHY

AL PASSEM (2) was a dominant winner over this route in July when leading in a smallish field. This race sets up in very similar fashion and he should be at peak fitness fifth-up. He was less than a length off Land Of Plenty four-back and was terrific behind Cliff’s Edge three starts ago. ESHTIRAAK (7) looms as danger coming off a soft win at Bendigo last start.

$50 BETTING STRATEGY

$40 on AL PASSEM (2) at $3

$10 on ESHTIRAAK (7) at $6

RACE 3 – WATCH RACING.COM SPRINGTIME STAKES

YULONG JANUARY (4) shouldn’t have too many issues finding the front from barrier three. He was just run down late by Ranier last start after being annoyed by a riderless horse at various stages of the race. It was a game effort and the form out of that race has stacked up well, with the winner and third-placed Wild Planet running the quinella in the Group 3 Carbine Club on Derby day.

$50 BETTING STRATEGY

$50 on YULONG JANUARY (4) at $3.90

Ulmann is great each-way value in the Chatham Stakes. Picture: AAP

RACE 4 – DERUCCI CHATHAM STAKES

ULMANN (5) can be a big improver here second-up. The Darren Weir gelding was taken back to last over 1200m at Moonee Valley last start and was in an utterly hopeless position with 400m to run. When John Allen eventually got across heels to the outside, the son of Sebring lengthened nicely, clocking the third-fastest final furlong. He can settle closer here up to 1400m, jumping from barrier three. It’s been a while between drinks but his best is certainly good enough.

$50 BETTING STRATEGY

$25 each-way on ULMANN (5) at $13

RACE 6 – 7NEWS MATRIARCH STAKES

SHEEZDASHING (8) still sits on just the one win from 16 starts but she looks well-suited back at Flemington fourth-up. The Mat Ellerton and Simon Zahra-trained mare needs a solid tempo and galloping room and she should get both here. Her run in the Group 2 Let’s Elope Stakes on resumption was a cracker and her form around Youngstar last preparation reads well for this. TEMPLE OF BEL (11) was outstanding at Group 1 level last start and warrants a saver.

$50 BETTING STRATEGY

$35 on SHEEZDASHING (8) at $7.50

$15 on TEMPLE OF BEL (11) at $5.50

QUADZILLA

The last race on the card might be the hardest of the entire Melbourne Cup carnival so we’re casting a very wide net there. That means going skinny somewhere else, and Blair House does look a class above in the Mackinnon Stakes.

LEG 1 (R6)

Going with just two runners in this, which is a bold play given how open the market is. SHEEZDASHING (8) is knocking on the door and will appreciate the expansive surroundings of Flemington. She maps for a soft run around midfield. TEMPLE OF BEL (11) flew home in the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes last start, clocking a quicker final 200m than impressive winner Shillelagh.

SELECTIONS: 8,11

LEG 2 (R7)

REDZEL (1) won this event last year and is coming off a brilliant frontrunning display in The Everest. He looks the horse to beat but this is a deep Group 1 sprint. REDKIRK WARRIOR (4) flies down the straight and has jumped out well in preparation for his return. KEMENTARI (7) and SPIRIT OF VALOR (8) were outstanding in the Group 1 Manikato last start and also warrant inclusion. PIERATA (6) is also hard to leave out.

SELECTIONS: 1,4,6,7,8

Blair House (left) has excellent form around Cox Plate runner-up Benbatl. Picture: AAP

LEG 3 (R8)

BLAIR HOUSE (3) finished a nose off Cox Plate runner-up Benbatl in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes last start which certainly looks the right form for this. That run followed an encouraging display in the Underwood Stakes so he’s clearly adapted to Australian conditions very quickly. He maps for the right run up on the speed and has the all-important Charlie Appleby polish.

SELECTIONS: 3

LEG 4 (R9)

This is just an utterly impossible race to assess. Godolphin saddle-up three runners and REVENIRE (4) looks the best of the trio but nothing would shock here. Even ASTRO CASTRO (10) could bob up at $81 – he has form in the art of ‘quaddie killing’.

SELECTIONS: FIELD

FAT QUADDIE: 8,11 / 1,4,6,7,8 / 3 / F — Cost $50 for 31.25%

SKINNY QUADDIE: 8,11 / 1,4,6,7,8 / 3 / 2,4,8,9 — Cost $25 for 62.50%

Skinny quaddie explanation

Cutting the last leg back to the three Godolphin runners and the talented Eurack who resumes for a new stable off a lengthy break.

FEATURE FOCUS

MACKINNON STAKES (2000m WFA)

Michael Manley looks at the feature event on the final day.

RACE 8, SATURDAY 4.55PM

1 IT’S SOMEWHAT 1 James Cummings Kerrin McEvoy 59kg

2 PRIZED ICON 5 Kris Lees Damien Oliver 59kg

3 BLAIR HOUSE 2 Charlie Appleby William Buick 59kg

4 TRAP FOR FOOLS 8 Jarrod McLean John Allen 59kg

5 DOUBT DEFYING 10 Steven O’Dea Michael Walker 59kg

6 OCTABELLO 7 Mick Price Noel Callow 58.5kg

7 LATROBE 3 Joseph O’Brien Mark Zahra 57.5kg

8 SHILLELAGH 6 Chris Waller James McDonald 57kg

9 EXTRA BRUT 9 Darren Weir Craig Williams 51kg

10 MICKEY BLUE EYES 4 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Corey Brown 51kg

LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

HISTORY SAYS

Last five winners have all been unplaced at their last start but four of them were from the Cox Plate and no horse from that race is backing up here. Last year’s winner Tosen Stardom run in the Kennedy Mile last year before backing up as SHILLELAGH is here. Only one favourite has been successful in the past 14 years which was So You Think in 2010.

Only one three-year-old has won this race in the last 50 years which was Casual Pass in 2003.

THE SKINNY

IT’S SOMEWHAT

On face value he looks outclassed but he finished third in this race last year with similar form going into this. Has barrier one, Kerrin McEvoy and carries the Godolphin Royal Blue.

PRIZED ICON

Good effort when second to Cliff’s Edge last start in the Crystal Mile at The Valley. Better suited over 2000m but he hasn’t won since he took out the 2016 Victoria Derby but has run three Group 1 placings since.

BLAIR HOUSE

All arrows point to another win for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. Fought hard when second to Benbatl in the Caulfield Stakes who franked that form with his second to Winx in the Cox Plate.

TRAP FOR FOOLS

He’s racing in great fashion. He followed his fifth behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes with a brave second to Ventura Storm in the Moonee Valley Cup. He’ll lead and should give some cheek.

DOUBT DEFYING

Brisbane galloper who couldn’t have been more impressive winning the Sale Cup at his Victorian debut. He looks a star in the making but this is a quantum leap in class.

OCTABELLO

He was unlucky in the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley when close-up fifth. He’s racing well and in peak form but a place looks best.

LATROBE

Irish Derby winner who was aimed at this for his Australian debut instead of the Melbourne Cup by Lloyd Williams as he thought he wouldn’t be ready for 3200m. He’s got to go close,

SHILLELAGH

Gun mare who loves this track. Given a perfect ride to win the Empire Rose Stakes last Saturday. Untried over 2000m and a query at weight-for-age level.

EXTRA BRUT

Tough three-year-old who outstayed his rivals to win the Victoria Derby last Saturday. Super fit and carries light weight but imagine this is a quantum leap.

MICKEY BLUE EYES

Another three-year-old who hasn’t had any luck in three runs since winning the Dulcify Quality. Backing up from the Derby and this looks too hard.

MICK’S TIPS

1. BLAIR HOUSE

2. Latrobe

3. It’s Somewhat

4. Extra Brut