Stakes Day 2016: Michael Manley previews final day at Flemington
GODOLPHIN star Blair House can bring down a sensational carnival for the global giant with success in the Mackinnon Stakes, according to Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley.
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GODOLPHIN star Blair House can bring down a sensational carnival for the global giant with success in the Mackinnon Stakes on the final day at Flemington, according to Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley.
If you go on his narrow defeat to Cox Plate runner-up Benbatl in the Caulfield Stakes, Manley believes Blair House stamps him as the one to beat and has made him his best bet for the program.
TOP PICKS: BEST BETS FOR STAKES DAY
HOT TIPS: RED ALERT FOR SPRINT FINISH
BEST BET
BLAIR HOUSE (R8, No. 3)
VALUE BET
REDKIRK WARRIOR (R7, No. 4)
Back to the Flemington straight where he’s won three Group 1 races. He jumped out well last week.
EARLY QUADDIE
5,7/1,4,6,12/1,3,4,7,13/1,2,6,7,11
$100 flexi for 50 per cent
BIG6
1,3,4,7/1,2,6,7,11/1,8,13,14/1,2,4/3/2,9,11,15
$100 flexi for 10.4 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1,8,9,11,12,13,14
Race 7: 1,2,4,6,7,8
Race 8: 3,7
Race 9: 2,4,6,8,9,11,15
$100 flexi for 17 per cent
RACE 1: 12.15PM MELBOURNE’S OWN 3AW TROPHY (1600M)
AL PASSEM (2) is racing well. Worked hard to lead in the
Toorak Handicap two starts ago before tiring. Then last start in the Sale Cup
he chased home two smart horses in Doubt Defying and Fastnet Tempest. Five
starts ago he led throughout to win this track and distance. MANUEL (3) is
backing up after excellent run on Tuesday when second to the smart Fifty Stars
over 1400m. This is his first try at 1600m. ESHTIRAAK (7) is racing well this
campaign. Strong on speed win at Bendigo
last start in a BM70. LOYALTY MAN (1) is fitter for two runs back from a spell.
ONCIDIUM RULER (4) won at this meeting last year over 2000m and he’ll be suited
by the likely fast speed.
THE TRAINER
TONY McEVOY
MANUEL (RACE 1, No.3)
“He’ll appreciate the firmer ground here than on Tuesday. He’s been strong at the end of his 1400m races and I’m confidenthe’ll run out the 1600m.”
THE BET: AL PASSEM THE WIN (CONFIDENCE RATING: 8.5/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Manuel $3.50-$3.10
RACE 2: 12.50PM JUVENILE DIABETES RESEARCH FOUNDATION PLATE (2000M)
LUCKY FOR ALL (5) can still do a lot wrong but he’s a horse
with a stack of potential. Despite laying in he was able to beat former Japanese
galloper DANON ROMAN (7) last start over 2000m at Caulfield. Both drop in weight
as they rise from a BM78 to a BM90 but Danon Roman will meet him 2.5kg better.
Also there is a slight query on the speed which won’t affect Danon Roman as he’ll
be up on the speed. PLEASURING (8) should now be ready to find her best form
after four starts back from a spell. She looked likely to win at The Valley last
start but tired in a race which SPECIAL ALERT (9) finished second. SILVERA (2),
THE PINNACLE (6) and BOXOFCHOCOLATES (10) all have claims.
THE TRAINER
TONY McEVOY
SILVERA (RACE 2, No. 2)
“He’s racing well and he’s crying out for 2000m. He’s ready to win.”
THE BET: LUCKY FOR ALL THE WIN (CONFIDENCE: 8.5/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pleasuring $13-$9.50
Top Prospect $13-$11
RACE 3: 1.30PM WATCH RACING.COM SPRINGTIME STAKES (1400M)
Should be good speed in this which could play into the hands
of RINGERDINGDING (6) who flew home for third at The Valley last start behind
Charge over 1200m. He recorded the fastest last 1000m for the meeting, on a day
which played to on-pacers. Step back to 1400m will suit. Stablemate NO EMOTION
(12) is also a promising galloper having won his past two impressively in the
country. YULONG JANUARY (4) has great formlines. He won his first three starts
before finishing second to Ranier with Wild Planet third over 1400m at
Caulfield and that form was franked in the Carbine Club Stakes with that pair
quinellaing the race. LONG LEAF (1) stuck on well in strong race behind
Sunlight over 1200m at Flemington last Saturday. SUNSET WATCH (3) is racing
consistently and is well drawn.
THE TRAINER
DAVID EUSTACE
YULONG JANUARY (R3, NO. 4)
“Was unlucky last start, pestered by the riderless horse. He’s still in good order and the form has been franked with Ranierand Wild Planet who’s run well since. Drawn well.”
THE BET: RINGERDINGDING THE WIN (CONFIDENCE: 8.5/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Yulong January $3.20-$4-$3.90
Ringerdingding $5.50-$4 ($650 @ $4.80, $250 @ $4, $300 @ $3.90, $200 @ $2.90)
RACE 4: 2.10PM DERUCCI CHATHAM STAKES (1400M)
MR SNEAKY (7) wasn’t suited by the track bias or the wet
track at Caulfield last start over 1400m. His previous form reads well for this
with a fourth at The Valley behind Land of Plenty and Peaceful State and a
close-up sixth in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stake. He races well this track and
distance and should be suited by the good speed. WIDGEE TURF (1) is an ultra
consistent galloper. He’ll drift back and charge home. DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR (3)
has drawn out but he’ll push forward. He also races well this track and
distance. DREAMFORCE (4) fought on strongly when second to Sirconni at Group 3
level where he worked hard early. SO SI BON (13) ran well last week when eighth
behind Osborne Bulls over 1200m and will be suited by the step up to 1400m.
THE TRAINER
TONY McEVOY
DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR (RACE 4, No.3)
“He’s a great little horse and he didn’t quite get the mile in the Toorak. I then decided to set him for this race and he’sin great shape. The wide barrier isn’t ideal though.”
THE BET: MR SNEAKY EACH-WAY (CONFIDENCE: 7/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ulmann $26-$13 ($500 @ $17, $200 x $300 e/w @ $13/$4)
RACE 5: 2.50PM QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2600M)
JAAMEH (7) was held up at a key point early in the straight
when he finished third behind A Prince Of Arran at Flemington last week in The Hotham
and he franked that form with his third in the Melbourne Cup. Before that he
finished second to Avilius in the Bart Cummings. He races well at Flemington.
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (2) is racing in great form running on strongly for fourth in
the Hotham Stakes. MIDTERM (11) finished a close-up fourth in the Geelong Cup
at his last start. LIBRAN (1) finished off nicely for third in the Moonee
Valley Cup in a race which played to on-pacers. He finished eighth in last year’s
Melbourne Cup. CASTERTON (6) best work was late in the Geelong Cup when he
finished sixth. He also likes it wet as does MEGABLAST (4) who also ran on in
the Moonee Valley Cup.
THE TRAINER
DAVID HAYES
JAAMEH (RACE 5, No.7)
“He ran really well last week and look how that form held up and he was held up. Hopefully he can win and he can get a highenough rating to get into next year’s Melbourne Cup.”
THE BET: JAAMEH THE WIN (CONFIDENCE: 9/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Megablast $26-$17 ($200 @ $21, $370 e/w @ $21/$6, $200 e/w @ $21/$6, $300 @ $18)
Midterm $8-$7
RACE 6: 3.30PM 7NEWS MATRIARCH STAKES (2000M)
OUR LIBRETTO (14) has won each of her four starts this time
in and gets to her grand final. At her past two starts she’s overcome difficulties
as two starts ago at Flemington the track played to on-pacers and last start in
the Pinker Pinker Plate at Cranbourne she wasn’t suited by the tight turning
track where she came from last and swooped home out wide to win. This is her
biggest test but she has the talent to win this. MISS SISKA (13) backs up from
Tuesday when she finished third on a heavy track to One More Try. She’ll go forward
from her inside draw. ALOISIA (1) covered a lot of ground in the Empire Rose
Stakes. She looked as if she’s crying out for 2000m. TEMPLE OF BELL (11) rocketed
home for seventh in that race. SHEEZDASHING (8) ran on well for fifth in the
Cranbourne Cup last start.
THE TRAINER
DAVID EUSTACE
ALOISIA (RACE 6, No. 1)
“Very disappointing last start, we thought we had her right up to scratch, so it was a bit of a head scratcher on what wentwrong. Arguably, she runs her best races over the 2000m, so the extra distance should suit but we guess time will tell tomorrow”.
THE BET: LIBRETTO EACH-WAY (CONFIDENCE: 7/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note
RACE 7: 4.10PM VRC SPRINT CLASSIC (1200M)
Forget REDKIRK WARRIOR’s failures in England as he’s a
terrible traveller. He’s back at Flemington where he’s won two Newmarkets and a
Lightning. He flopped in this race last year but that was after he’d run in The
Everest. He looked powerful in Flemington jump-out late last week. Last year’s
winner REDZEL (1) will be the horse he’ll have to catch. With the presence of the
speedy INVINCIBLE STAR (14) he may not be able to control the tempo from the
front and slowly build as he likes to. BRAVE SMASH (2) sat off the speed and
swooped home to win the Manikato Stakes over a gallant SPIRIT OF VALOUR (8). Brave
Smash was narrowly beaten by Redkirk Warrior in the Newmarket. In that race KEMENTARI
(7) flew home to finish third and could
have won but for ducking in the closing stages. PIERATA (6) defeated him
four starts ago in the Missile Stakes at Rosehill.
THE TRAINER
JAMES CUMMINGS
KEMENTARI (RACE 7, No.7)
“He was very strong in the Manikato from a difficult position and has come on nicely since.
“The Coolmore winner Sunlight finished behind us in that race.”
“He’s deep into his preparation, but he’s thriving and a win here would completely forgive him for a campaign that hasn’tgone his way.”
THE BET: REDKIRK WARRIOR EACH-WAY (CONFIDENCE: 6/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Redzel $4.40-$5-$4.80 ($1000 e/w @ $5/$2, $200 x $800 e/w @ $5/$2, $1250 @ $4.80, $1,000 @ $4.80, $500 @ $4.80)
Brave Smash $13 unchanged ($1,000 x $2900 e/w @ $13/$3.80, $750 @ $13, $300 e/w @ $13/$3.80)
Redkirk Warrior $13-$11
Spirit Of Valour $15-$9.50 ($2,000 e/w @ $10/$3.20)
RACE 8: 4.55PM SEPPELT MACKINNON STAKES (2000M)
BLAIR HOUSE (3) has compelling form lines to win this. He was
unlucky at his Australian debut as he was slowly away but finished on strongly
for fourth behind Homesman in the Underwood Stakes before a close second to
Benbatl in the Caulfield Stakes, who subsequently finished second in the Cox
Plate. Query runner is Lloyd Williams/Aidan
O’Brien’s Irish Derby winner LATROBE (7) who makes his Australian debut. They
decided to target this race as they believed he wasn’t ready for the rigours of
a Melbourne Cup. Brisbane galloper DOUBT DEFYING (5) is an exciting prospect.
He’s won five of his last six and was impressive scoring in the Sale Cup but
this is much tougher. IT’S SOMEWHAT (1) finished third in this race last year
off a similar preparation. SHILLELAGH (8) and EXTRA BRUT (9) both back up after
Group 1 wins last Saturday but the mare is a query over 2000m and the colt is a
query at this level. TRAP FOR FOOLS (4) ran well in the Turnbull Stakes behind
Winx when fifth this track and distance.
THE TRAINER
CHARLIE APPLEBY
BLAIR HOUSE (R8, No.3)
“We are very confident. He came out of that last run well and we purposefully skipped the Cox Plate because we thought wecouldn’t reverse the form with Benbatl let alone Winx. We go into the Mackinnon with some fresh legs.I feel they have gotus to beat on Saturday.”
THE BET: BLAIR HOUSE (CONFIDENCE: 9.5/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: It’s Somewhat $21-$18
Latrobe $6-$5
RACE 9: 5.45PM GRAND HANDICAP (1100M)
GUN sprinting mare EURACK (9) resumes and she’s out to take
her record to five from five. She hasn’t raced since she led throughout to win
at Caulfield in February. She’s drawn out which should suit. EL MAGNIFICENCE
(15) led throughout to win first-up at Sale. He’s run well down the straight and
Barrier 20 might help. ORDER OF COMMAND
(11) has great form to win this. At his last two starts he’s finished second
down the Flemington straight to Nature Strip and Brave Song. He has Oliver on
to overcome his inside draw. James Cummings has three good chances — ESPERANCE (2)
who flew home at The Valley last start for fourth in a 955m race. REVENIRE (4)
who finished second to Esperance two starts ago at Randwick followed that with
another second at that track in a race which BEACON (8) finished third. SIRIUS
SUSPECT (6) also has strong claims.
THE TRAINER
DAVID EUSTACE
SHERIFF JOHN STONE (R9, No.1) and LAGERFIELD (R9, No.7)
“Both horses racing very well. Lagerfeld is owned by members of the committee at Flemington so it would be a very timely win.Sheriff John Stone loves this distance and loves running down the straight so expecting a good performance.”
THE BET: EURACK EACH-WAY (CONFIDENCE: 8/10).
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Eurack $5-$4.60 ($400 @ $5, $200 @ $5, $1,000 @ $4.80, $300 @ $4.80 TWICE, $1,000 @ $4.60, $200 @ $4.60)
VRC SPRINT
Biggest potential collects on the VRC Sprint
$5000 at $11 on Brave Smash to win for $55,000
$2000 each-way at $10/$3.20 on Spirit Of Valor for $26,400
$1000 at $13 on Brave Smash to win, $2900 at $3.80 the place for $24,020
$2000 at $11 on Brave Smash to win for $22,000
$500 at $11 on Brave Smash to win, $3000 at $3.50 the place for $16,000
Best backed for the win (single bets since Wednesday)
1. Redzel ($4.80) – 56%
2. Santa Ana Lane ($10) – 9%
3. Redkirk Warrior ($11) – 8%
4. Pierata ($5) – 6%
5. Kementari ($6.50) – 5%
Best backed for the place (single bets since Wednesday)
1. Redzel ($2) – 48%
2. Brave Smash ($3.80) – 14%
3. Santa Ana Lane ($3.20) – 9%
4. Spirit Of Valor ($3.10) – 8%
5. Redkirk Warrior ($3.40) – 7%
Price changes from Wednesday
$4.80 Redzel (out from $4.40)
$5 Pierata (in from $5.50)
$6.50 Kementari
$9.50 Spirit Of Valor (in from $15)
$10 Santa Ana Lane (out from $8)
$11 Redkirk Warrior (in from $13)
$11 U S Navy Flag (out from $10)
$11 In Her Time (in from $13)
$12 Jungle Cat (out from $10)
$13 Brave Smash
$26 Invincible Star
$34 Spright (out from $31)
$51 Fleet Review
$151 Intelligence Cross (out from $101)
MACKINNON STAKES
Biggest potential collects on the Mackinnon Stakes
$250 each-way at $51/$13.12 on Octabello for $16,030
$300 at $31 on Octabello to win for $9,300
$625 at $12 on Trap For Fools to win for $7,500
$2,000 at $3.40 on Blair House to win for $6,800
$1,000 at $5 on Latrobe to win for $5,000
Best backed for the win (single bets since Wednesday)
1. Blair House ($2.20) – 52%
2. Latrobe ($4.80) – 29%
3. Extra Brut ($7.50) – 7%
4. Trap For Fools ($12) – 3%
5. Shillelagh ($7) – 3%
Best backed for the place (single bets since Wednesday)
1. Latrobe ($1.70) – 36%
2. Extra Brut ($2.20) – 15%
3. Mickey Blue Eyes ($4.40) – 12%
4. Octabello ($6) – 7%
5. Prized Icon ($3.70) – 6%
Price changes from Wednesday
$2.20 Blair House
$4.80 Latrobe (in from $6)
$7 Shillelagh (out from $6.50)
$7.50 Extra Brut (out from $7)
$12 Trap For Fools (out from $10)
$17 Prized Icon (out from $15)
$19 It’s Somewhat (in from $21)
$21 Mickey Blue Eyes (out from $18)
$23 Doubt Defying (out from $21)
$34 Octabello (out from $31)
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