Early Oil: Best bets Flemington, tips, analysis for Saturday races

Spirit Of Aquada’s running style will be suited to the wide the open spaces at headquarters, according to leading form analyst Chris Vernuccio, and that should be enough to get the job done.

Spirit Of Aquada’s running style will be suited to the wide the open spaces at headquarters, according to leading form analyst Chris Vernuccio, and that should be enough to get the job done.

BEST BET

SPIRIT OF AQUADA (Race 9, No. 8)

VALUE BET

HALVORSEN (Race 6, No. 2)

EARLY QUADDIE

2,3,5,8,13 / 1,5,7,8 / 3,4,6,10 / 1,4

$100 flexi for 62.50 per cent

BIG 6

3,4,6,10 / 1 / 2,4,7 / 3 / 2,4,5,6,10 / 6,8

$100 flexi for 83.33 per cent

TOP PICKS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

QUADDIE

Race 6: 2,4,5,7

Race 7: 3

Race 8: 2,3,4,5,6,10,14

Race 9: 5,6,8

$100 flexi for 119 per cent

RACE 1 (11.50am): JACK STYRING PLATE (1100m)

MOLDOVA (2) led at a fast gallop on debut at Bendigo but still won by a significant margin over CALMYOURFARM (3), EXQUISITE BEAUTY (6) and FEIGN (4). Exquisite Beauty was the odds-on favourite but overraced and couldn’t match the sustained speed of the winner. Calmyourfarm was slow out of the barrier but she tends to get back in her races anyway. PARMIE (11) caught the eye in a Flemington jumpout. MAQSAD (1) ran second in a listed race at Morphettville after winning a Seymour maiden, but the form out of both race hasn’t stood up.

BET: MOLDOVA win

RACE 2 (12.25pm): APACHE CAT HANDICAP (1620m)

Tough choice between the top three in betting. DR DRILL (3) finished second in his Australian debut after he was well-supported at big odds despite the unsuitable trip. The step up to 1620m will be more to his liking but he’s drawn the widest gate. GOLD MAG (5) finally landed another win when he was taken to Sydney, relishing the heavy conditions over the mile. PHONEME (13) ran well behind Tarwin but is unproven beyond 1400m. SIR PIPPIN (2) is another import and unbeaten is his two local starts. He’s over the odds. Not a race I’m keen to get involved.

BET: DR DRILL each-way

RACE 3 (1pm): ROGAN JOSH HANDICAP (1410m)

FIDELIA (1) has been well found in early betting. There wasn’t much between her and FABRIC (8) over 1300m at Sandown Hillside. The step up to 1400m will suit both fillies but Fabric had a stronger finish and can settle closer from barrier one. NEIGHBOURHOOD (7) steps up to Saturday grade after a soft win under hands and heels on debut at Pakenham. There was no explanation for SHAMWOW’S (5) disappointing performance in the Bendigo Guineas but her two career wins indicate she’s better than that. YULONG METEOR (6) drops back to 1400m and has been competitive is better grade.

BET: FABRIC each-way

Halvorsen looks a good each-way chance to go back to back.

RACE 4 (1.35pm): MIGHT AND POWER HANDICAP (1410m)

Hard to split the top four selections. CALL IT A DAY (10) ran better than it looked last week after his big mid-race surge left him vulnerable late. He will dictate the speed again as the lone leader. ADDICTIVE NATURE (4) will improve second-up over 1400m. The slow tempo over 1200m was against him first-up. A SHIN ROOK (3) won at Morphettville over 1600m but drops back in distance. ANOTHER DOLLAR (6) resumes and is the X-factor. Twelve months ago he was running second to Youngstar over the longer distances.

BET: CALL IT A DAY each-way

RACE 5 (2.15pm): ZIPPING HANDICAP (2000m)

This will be GRINZINER STAR’S (1) final lead-up run before next week’s South Australian Derby. He beat the older horses last start over 2000m after defeating the current SA Derby favourite Mr Quickie. I expect him to win again but I’m always wary taking short odds on any runner before their target race. ANALYTICA (4) and PREDECESSOR (5) finished alongside each other at Flemington, the former did have a tough run, though. ZOUY’S COMET (6) was held up from the 100m to the finish line in the same race but likely to settle at the rear of the field from another wide draw. RIDGEWOOD DRIVE (10) has drawn better.

BET: GRINZINGER STAR win

RACE 6 (2.55pm) WHO SHOT THEBARMAN HANDICAP (1200m)

Last-start winner HALVORSEN (2) looks well placed again on the back up. He ran the quickest last 1000m of the day last week to win quite comfortably at Caulfield. Tasmanian filly LADY PLUCK (4) brought up a hat-trick after prevailing at Caulfield, but she did have a fitness edge over her rivals, which included RAPIDORA (14). MORRISSY (7) got the better of POISED TO STRIKE (5) in moderate time.

BET: HALVORSEN each-way

Jockey Michael Poy rides Steel Prince to victory at Caulfield last month.

RACE 7 (3.35pm): BREW HANDICAP (2600m)

Can’t find a knock on STEEL PRINCE (3), who is aiming for four straight wins. He left his rivals in his wake at Caulfield over 2400m and the rise up to 2600m won’t be a concern. Adelaide Cup winner SURPRISE BABY (1) returns from an eight-week break. What he achieved last campaign was phenomenal, starting off with victory in a 1200m maiden before his Cup success at 3200m at just his sixth career start. ROCKARRAL (7) is deep into his prep but should be competitive again. OBSERVATIONAL (4) defeated SIN TO WIN (5), who finished eight lengths behind Steel Prince the start before.

BET: STEEL PRINCE win

RACE 8 (4.15pm) AUSTRALIAN TRAINERS’ ASSOCIATION HANDICAP (1800m)

The toughest race of the day. Five runners are dual acceptors so the field could change dramatically by Saturday. MORTON’S FORK (5) looks ready now after rebounding in the Easter Cup. CALL ME HANDSOME (4) has been close in all of his runs this prep. PACODALI (3) and SPUNLAGO (10) come out of the same races as Call Me Handsome. MANTASTIC (6) could be tested at 1800m. The form out of KING’S FULL’S (14) win at Cranbourne is solid. NZ import HOME BY MIDNIGHT (2) can’t be ignored. This is a low confidence betting race.

BET: MORTON’S FORK each-way

RACE 9 (4.55pm): EFFICIENT HANDICAP (1200m)

SPIRIT OF AQUADA (8) left it too late the last time he was at Flemington but showed he is capable of winning down the straight if he doesn’t get too far back. He was then beaten a nose at Caulfield by Bandipur, who has since won again. GALAXY RAIDER (6) would have gone close to winning on Melbourne Cup Day if not for a nasty fall. His trials have showed no signs he has been scarred by that experience. PETRELLE (14) dug deep to win at Geelong but there’s always been a spruik about her and she looks under the odds in a harder race. BEL SONIC (5) is a hope back to 1200m and with blinkers back on. MILWAUKEE’S (2) past two runs are inconclusive.

BET: SPIRIT OF AQUADA each-way