The Early Oil: Michael Manley runs the rule over the Flemington card

WINX mania is not the only reason that has Michael Manley excited about Turnbull Stakes Day. take a look at our expert tips and find yourself a winner.

WINX mania is not the only reason that has Michael Manley excited about Turnbull Stakes Day at headquarters, with the Herald Sun’s leading form analyst doing cartwheels about I Am Excited’s prospects down the Flemington straight.

He also cannot get enough of Godolphin stayer Avilius, who could not have been more impressive winning his three starts in Sydney.

Manley says Avilius’s closing sectionals each time have been remarkable.

Manley believes the talented stayer should prove difficult to stop again, with Manley not hesitating in making him his best for the star-studded program.

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ANALYSIS: TURNBULL STAKES

STABLE WATCH: DAVO’S BEST BETS FOR RANDWICK

TOP PICKS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

MONEY TRAIN: EVEREST PUNTERS FLY FLAG

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BEST BET

AVILIUS (Race 7, No. 1)

VALUE BET

TULIP (Race 9, No. 6)

EARLY QUADDIE

2,3,4,9, 10/2,3,4,9,10/2,4,5,6,7,11,15/2

$100 flexi for 57 per cent

BIG 6

2,4,5,6,7,11,15/2/7,8,11/1,2,10/1,5,15/5,6

$100 flexi for 39.68 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 1,7,8,9,10,11

Race 7: 1,2,9

Race 8: 2,5,6,12,13,15

Race 9: 5,6,9,13

$100 flexi for 19.84 per cent

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RACE 1: 12.30PM MARIBYRNONG TRIAL STAKES (1000M)

Looking at trials and jump-outs there’s no clear standout so betting the best guide. SUN CITY (6), FANAAR (2) and UNITE AND CONQUER (8) finished alongside each other in a recent Flemington 800m jump-out. Sun City and Fanaar didn’t seem to be pushed out in the closing stages. MERCURY (5) had an easy day-out in his jump-out but he looked a professional racehorse. Tony McEvoy in addition to Sun City also has THE ASTROLOGIST (7) and GRAND SCHOLAR (10) in the race who’ve also shown talent in jump-outs. Mick Price’s FORBIDDEN PALACE (3) also won a Caulfield jump-out.

SUGGESTED BET: SUN CITY EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Mercury $17-$14 ($300 @ $13)

The Astrologist $6-$6.50-$5.50 ($200 @ $6.50)

RACE 2: 1.05PM ANTLER LUGGAGE STAKES (1400M)

Respected Kiwi trainer’s Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman have brought across the impressive Savabeel three-year-old filly PEACEFUL (9) who easily won a stakes race at Wanganui over 1200m at her last start. She’s had one start over 1400m for a Listed stakes win at Te Rapa. WILD PLANET (3) recorded a good time when he led throughout to win first-up at Ballarat over 1200m. He was beaten in a photo by Vassilator this track and distance on Anzac Day. He’ll try and lead throughout. RANIER (4) is a promising Lonhro colt who finished on strongly for second behind Nakeeta Jane at Warwick Farm last start. YULONG JANUARY (5) has bolted in at his two starts both at Swan Hill. KHULAASA (1) should be suited by 1400m.

SUGGESTED BET: PEACEFUL EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

More Than Exceed $7.50-$12

Ranier $5.50-$3.50 ($200 @ $5.50, $200 @ $5, $300 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.40, $350 @ $3.80)

Yulong January $4.40-$3.90

Peaceful $4.80-$5.50

RACE 3: 1.40PM FURPHY PARIS LANE STAKES (1400M)

Tough Tasmanian galloper I’M WESLEY (3) should be able to lead and from there will take catching. His last run over 1400m was at Launceston in December last year when he defeated Hellova Street. He was beaten less than a length at his last start when fourth behind Dothraki over 1200m at Flemington. Top Brisbane galloper CRACK ME UP (1) was close-up in the same race. SHOKORA (10) sat wide when fourth behind her stablemate Tulip last start over 1400m at Caulfield. HOLBIEN (9) had a tough run when favourite at Caulfield last Sunday when he finished sixth behind Éclair Calling. Five starts ago at Flemington he won by 3.75 lengths over 1400m. PLEIN CIEL (4) didn’t fire at Newcastle but he’s a smart galloper. SOVEREIGN NATION (2) thrives at this track and distance.

SUGGESTED BET: I’M WESLEY EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Crack Me Up $4.60-$5.50

Plein Ciel $4.80-$4.20

Eckstein $6.50-$5.50 ($1,000 @ $5.50)

RACE 4: 2.20PM UCI STAKES (1800M)

Open event. SIKORSKY (11) strolled in with his maiden last start over 1600m at Sale where he sat wide and won being eased up by 2.75 lengths in a useful time for that day. EXTRA BRUT (2) out toughed THUNDERDOME (6) on the line to win over 1600m at Caulfield last start. That was big effort as he jumped up from 1300m to 1600m. Stablemate SAVOIE (5) made it two wins on end when he bolted in this track and distance by four lengths. APPROACH DISCREET (4) gave away too much start in that race but ran on to finish fourth. FAROOQ (7) didn’t have a lot of galloping room in the closing stages of the Stutt Stakes. COSMIC CITY (15) will be suited by 1800m.

Suggested bet: Sikorsky each-way

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Extra Brut $7-$5.50 ($500 @ $6)

Savoie $3.20-$3-$3.10 ($350 @ $3.20, $500 @ $3.10, $700 x $2,400 e/w @ $3/$1.60, $500 @ $3, $300 @ $3 TWICE)

Winx turns on the afterburners in last year’s Turnbull Stakes.

RACE 5: 3PM TAB TURNBULL STAKES (2000M)

The immortal mare WINX (2) will take centre stage and her closing sectionals from her two wins this time in suggest she’s going as well as she ever has and as a result win number 28 in a row should be a formality. She strolled in with this race last year by six and a half lengths. She’s facing stronger opposition this time round headed by Darren Weir’s Caulfield Cup favourite KINGS WILL DREAM (4), who is flying as his three starts this time in have been eye catching. At his last start he finished second in the Makybe Diva Stakes to GRUNT (1). Grunt returns to Flemington where’s he’s won two Group 1 races after yet another Caulfield failure. JON SNOW (5) finished third in that race and he’ll be better suited by 2000m. Winx’s stablemate YOUNGSTAR (10) is a promising mare.

Suggested bet: Take Winx to defeat Kings Will Dream in an exacta.

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Winx $1.15 unchanged ($10,000 @ $1.15, $5000 @ $1.15, $3,250 @ $1.15)

Kings Will Dream $12-$11 ($1,000 @ $11, $500 @ $11)

RACE 6: 3.40PM GILGAI STAKES (1200M)

SYDNEY mare I AM EXCITED (11) was held up before the turn and again in the straight when she ran on for 1.55 length fourth behind Winter Bride last start at Caulfield at Group 2 level. She’ll drop down from 56kg to 54.5kg and has drawn the outside barrier which will suit her down the straight. Darren Weir’s brilliant sprinting mare QUILISTA (8) resumed with a cracking fourth behind Faatinah at Moonee Valley before flopping at that track. She’s had one start this track and distance for a four length win. Stablemate FIRST AMONG EQUALS (7) flew home for second behind DOTHRAKI (1) this track and distance. BONS AWAY (9) flew home for first-up fourth at Caulfield. PERAST (3), EDUARDO (10) and DREAMFORCE (4) also chances.

SUGGESTED BET: I AM EXCITED THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Dothraki $9-$6.50

Bon’s Away $9-$10-$6.50 ($250 @ $10, $500 @ $7.50)

Deductions: Osborne Bulls 22c Win 16c Place

Avilius takes out the Premier's Cup. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7: 4.20PM THE BART CUMMINGS (2500M)

AVILIUS (1) has created such an impression in his three Sydney wins that he’s favourite for the Melbourne Cup. He’s produced outstanding sectionals each time. He had sound European form before he came to Australia. Another imported stayer VENICE BEACH (2) has impressed in his two Australian starts for a second behind Trap For Fools and then a seventh behind Night’s Watch at Caulfield where he sat wide throughiut. YOGI (10) gave away too much start in Adelaide last start. He’ll love the 2500m of Flemington. JAAMEH (9) has won his last two starts over 2500m at Flemington and he’s a smart stayer. The two gallopers which filled the placings in the Ansett Stakes at Mornington last week HARRISON (11) and HUSH WRITER (12) also have claims.

SUGGESTED BET: AVILIUS THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Avilius $2.20 unchanged ($2000 @ $2.20, $1000 @ $2.20, $500 @ $2.20 TWICE, $491 @ $2.20, $300 @ $2.20, $200 @ $2.20 MULTIPLE TIMES, $200 @ $2.10 MULTIPLE TIMES)

Midterm $16-$11 ($200 e/w @ $12/$3.30)

Jaameh $8.50-$10

RACE 8: 5PM TAB EDWARD MANIFOLD STAKES (1600M)

DARREN Weir has three great chances — KRONE (2), AMPHITRITE (5) and VERRY ELLEEGANT (15). Krone has run well at her two starts this time in as she has sat wide and run on well each time. Last start she finished off for fourth behind Mystic Journey over 1400m at Caulfield. Kiwi filly Verry Elleegant finished second at her debut and has followed that with two easy wins. She’ll be suited by the 1600m for her Australian debut. Amphitrite made it two on end when she finished strongly to win at Flemington over 1420m last start. ARISTIA (4) will be suited by the 1600m. She hasn’t had much luck this time in. PIERRO BELLE (13) was unlucky last start and David Hayes has a big opinion of GAELIC DREAM (12).

SUGGESTED BET: KRONE EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Krone $5-$5.50-$5 ($400 @ $5.50, $200 @ $5.50, $350 @ $5)

Amphitrite $3.40-$3.90

Verry Elleeegant $5-$4.20 ($500 @ $5, $300 @ $4.60, $200 @ $4.40, $1,000 x $1,200 e/w @ $4.20/$1.85)

RACE 9: 5:40PM BLAZER STAKES (1400M)

TULIP (6) worked hard in the early stages and then had to show fight to win over 1400m at Caulfield last start when she drew an outside barrier. She’ll be able to take up a good spot from barrier six. BELLA MARTINI (5) again has to contend with a bad draw but she was brave when second to the quality mare I Am A Star this track/distance/class. SAVITIANO (9) finished second in a strong Group 3 race at Newcastle last start behind PRINCESS POSH

(8). PLATINUM ANGEL (13) flew home for first-up third behind Winter Bride over 1200m at Caulfield last start. INVINCIBELLA (3) is always a chance in this class of race.

SUGGESTED BET: TULIP EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Tulip $12-$14-$13 ($2,000 @ $13)

Savatiano $7.50-$4 ($400 @ $7.50, $1,000 @ $6.50, $250 @ $6.50,

$950 @ $4.60 averaged out)

Deductions: Princess Posh 3c Win 3c Place