Race watch: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Royal Randwick
SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for Spring Champion Stakes Day at Royal Randwick.
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SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for Spring Champion Stakes Day at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Soft 5. Rail: 6m out 1600-winning post, 4m remainder.
R1 (12.15pm): YOUNG MEMBERS HCP (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Yulong January looks to have plenty of talent and his last win at Swan Hill was very impressive. The sectionals were sound and he will put himself on speed and prove hard to beat. The money has come for him in early betting and that has swayed me. They have also decided to run here instead of a dry track at Flemington, so you would think he would handle the wet? Royal Celebration was enormous first-up when just missing to Gem Song. He sat wide without cover and should improve off that. He is unknown in the wet but most of these are in that boat. Silent Explorer is a tough horse that has won on soft ground and placed on heavy and that will hold him in good stead if the rain arrives as expected.
BETTING STRATEGY: YULONG JANUARY on top. Quinella 3,1.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Royal Celebration $2.80-$3.10, Yulong January $4.40-$3 ($300 @ $4.40, $1,000 @ $3.90, $400 @ $3.60, $385 @ $3.60, $400 @ $3.50, $417 @ $3.40, $435 @ $3.30, $345 @ $3.20, $477 @ $3.10), Tough Larry $3.50-$4
TOP TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
R2 (12.50pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1600m)
OVERVIEW: The $7.50 about Rapture Miss seems a bet and she was outstanding at Moruya last start when held up for most of the straight before flying home late to notch a dead-heat win. She should have won comfortably. Her run prior in a Highway race was good and her wet form is OK without being super. Vertex is one who seems to get through wet ground well (defeated a good wet track You Es Commander back in April) and her two runs this time in have both been really good. She gets the blinkers on here. I’m respecting the likes of Athonis, Velaro and Saxton Rock but happy to speck the first two mentioned.
BETTING STRATEGY: Main play RAPTURE MISS to win at $7.50. Something small on VERTEX at $21 each-way as well.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Saxton Rock $11-$8.50, Velaro $7-$5.50
R3 (1.25pm): SCHWEPPES HCP (2000m)
OVERVIEW: I don’t mind this race. Domed is the improver here and I think she is much better on wet ground. She was disappointing last start but the blinkers go on and she can be closer in the run as well. The $14 represents value. What you see is what you get with Tamarack. He is an on-pace middle-distance/staying type going really well. He seems to get through wet ground OK but probably doesn’t want a bog. Raqeeq is in the same boat and I prefer him on top of the ground. He was stiff last start but can be a bit hit and miss. Keep Up gets his chance back on a wet track with the blinkers going on but he is at his right price all the same.
BETTING STRATEGY: DOMED the value at $14 but I could save on TAMARACK if it’s not a proper heavy track.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Excelsior $8-$6.50, Is Don Is Good $15-$11, Fast Train $11-$9
R4 (2pm): CELLARBRATIONS HCP (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Good race but there isn’t a great deal of speed on paper. Just Dreaming looks to get a pretty soft lead and I suppose it comes down to the fact of whether she is ready to rumble first-up at 1400m? Interesting to see Jason Collett on Just Dreaming instead of Insensata, I’m not sure what we can read into that (is it weight related or was it just the way it worked out?). Insensata flies on wet tracks and her last start was better than it looked as she laid in 50m from home and cost herself a length or two. Etymology flies fresh but does he handle a heavy track if it comes to that? (He did win a trial by a big space on a heavy track but that’s only a trial). Magic Alibi is going great guns this campaign but I’ve always felt she is a better horse on top of the ground. Araaja has trialled well but I want to see her come out and do it before diving in at that price.
BETTING STRATEGY: Leaning to JUST DREAMING just over INSENSATA.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Magic Alibi $7.50-$5 ($200 @ $7.50, $500 @ $6, $200 @ $5)
R5 (2.40pm): JACOBS MILE (1600m)
OVERVIEW: Very tricky race with a host of chances. I’m leaning the way of Fierce Impact, who was really good first-up behind Tip Top. The extra trip looks ideal and he is just untried in heavy ground but won his only start on soft. Drochaid creates interest at odds. He beat Dubaiinstyle on wet ground last time in and that horse is a mudlark. He will be better for the first-up effort. Zourkhan put a deserved win on the board last start and racing over 1800m should hold him in good stead if this becomes a bog track. I liked Tip Top last start but I just worry about him at 1600m against a couple of these. He can win because he is so underrated but I’ve always thought 1400m was his sweet spot. Other chances not mentioned too!
BETTING STRATEGY: FIERCE IMPACT on top but DROCHAID the value at double figures.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Instant De Reve $15-$10 ($500 e/w @ $10/$3.20)
R6 (3.20pm): ROMAN CONSUL STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Even edition of the Roman Consul. Sesar creates interest from Queensland and he has only had the one trial coming in which was OK without being great but he didn’t have the blinkers on. His run in the JJ Atkins on a heavy track was super and there is a signal of intent here with the blinkers on. Jonker missed the Golden Rose with an elevated temp but I reckon he loves wet ground. His performance in The Run To The Rose was a belter in a race run to suit the backmarkers. I like the way Spin has been going. He will probably get back here but he will flash late with the blinkers going on again. The recent trial with the shades on was super. Sandbar is likeable if the track doesn’t get too wet but I’m thinking it’s going to be in the heavy range on Saturday and that’s my concern with him. Comes right back into play if most of the rain misses.
BETTING STRATEGY: JONKER looks a big hope on a genuine wet track but I’m happy to play small on SESAR and SPIN at $10 and $12 respectively.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sandbar $4.60-$4.40, Performer $8-$6.50, Sesar $15-$10
R7 (4pm): SPRING CHAMPION STAKES (2000m)
OVERVIEW: He is a beauty Thinkin’ Big and he looks very hard to beat here. He has the ability to lead and provide a big kick and he can only improve off his last-start win over 1800m where he was two months between runs (he had two trials in between though). If there is a query, it’s a bog track and Adrian Bott was pretty clear that he would prefer a drier surface for him when speaking to Sky Thoroughbred Central on Wednesday. He has won on a heavy track but it was a maiden against moderate opposition. That’s the query here. How good is Frankely Awesome? We will get a guide on Saturday but she is untapped and the 2000m looks ideal. Tarka (blinkers on) ran second to Thinkin’ Big last start and he did win on a heavy track prior. The 2000m is no issue. Dealmaker comes here off a setback, which is an obvious concern on a wet track, but he is clearly a talented horse. Mickey Blue Eyes has 2000m written all over him, while Maid Of Heaven got going late again last start and trialled well on a heavy track earlier in her career.
BETTING STRATEGY: THINKIN’ BIG looks hard to beat providing it’s not completely bottomless.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Thinkin’ Big $3.40-$3.50 ($250 @ $3.50, $200 @ $3.50, $330 @ $3.40, $200 @ $3.40 TWICE)
R8 (4.40pm): ANGST STAKES (1600m)
OVERVIEW: I’m expecting a pretty wet track at Randwick on Saturday and I want to be with the horse coming back from 2000m to the mile in I Am Serious. She was enormous behind Avilius last start in a race dominated by the swoopers (she was the only on speed runner to be in the finish) and one thing about her is she loves wet tracks. Dixie Blossoms has won this race the last two years and she gets in really well here. She was disappointing second-up but she loves Randwick and a wet track is no issue. Shumookh and Princess Posh are both capable, while Mandylion is a mudlark and is worth thought for multiples.
BETTING STRATEGY: I AM SERIOUS to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Dixie Blossoms $4.40-$3.70 ($600 @ $4.20 averaged out, $500 @ $3.70), I Am Serious $2.70-$2.80
R9 (5.20pm): WINNING EDGE SPRINT (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Typically open race to finish the day. I must admit I’ve never been a huge fan of Tchaikovsky but he’s not badly graded back here with the light weight. Simply put, he has come through two very high rating races and he is already proven at least on soft ground. The blinkers go on and he should be positive early. I want to make a rough case for Red Currant here at $41. He is outgraded and eligible for a class 1 but I thought he didn’t have a lot of luck first-up last weekend in a Benchmark 88 and he drops to a Benchmark 78 here. He is unproven on wet ground but most of his siblings have won on wet tracks in the past and he could be worth a small speck the place. Dawn Dawn, Za Zi Ba, Arties Dreamwinner and Metamorphic (doesn’t want it wet!) are all chances, while My Maher has put two together in much weaker grade and also handles wet ground.
BETTING STRATEGY: Could speck TCHAIKOVSKY at $10 and something small the place RED CURRANT.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Argent d’or $21-$17, Tchaikovsky $13-$9, Artie’s Dreamwinner $7 unchanged ($1,900 @ $7)
TURF TALK
Ray Thomas and Matt Jones discuss their best bets for the weekend.
MJ: This wet weather just makes things even tougher at Randwick on Saturday. Can you find us a winner with confidence?
RT: I’m hoping to get one in the opener with Royal Celebration. He’s run second to The Autumn Sun and Gem Song at his past two starts and there’s no colts of that calibre in this field.
MJ: I agree and I’ve got him on top, too. I Am Serious is my best of the day in the Angst Stakes (1600m). She ran a length behind emerging star Avilius last start and a repeat of that against her own sex means she wins for mine.
RT: I Am Serious is dropping back from 2000m but this will be a testing mile given the rain affected conditions and she does look very hard to beat. Is ‘Dixie’ any chance of winning a third Angst Stakes, Matty?
MJ: She is because she handles the wet and loves racing at Randwick but she does give I Am Serious a 4kg weight advantage which will be telling. What about our feature of the day, the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes? I’ve been a Dealmaker fan for a while and despite a setback I’m sticking with him to get the better of favourite Thinkin’ Big.
RT: I’m with Thinkin’ Big. He’s bred to stay and he should take significant improvement off his Gloaming Stakes win which came after a six-week break. He’s bred to run out a strong 2000m.
MJ: If it was a dry track I’d just about say Sandbar is a special in the Roman Consul Stakes. But the wet ground changes things. I’m still sticking with him because he’s the class horse in the race. Not many of these would have a hope of running within half a length of Graff which Sandbar did in the Golden Rose.
RT: Ditto, Matty. I’ve got Sandbar on top for all the reasons you mentioned. But I am wary of Performer. When this colt puts it all together he could win any race.
MJ: I know we’re both on Warranty in the last. He was super last start and will come home hard again with James McDonald on board. What about the Highway race? I’m going with Velaro despite the wide gate. He’s got Tim Clark on who is in form and Cameron Crockett has got him going super.
RT: It’s a super tough race. I’m leading towards Velaro. He’s a promising horse and with any sort of luck he might be able to get away with it. I also think Blinkin Fast is an each-way hope.
MJ: I’ll see you at the track on Saturday before ducking off to watch Sydney FC beat the Wanderers in the FFA Cup semi.
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