The Early Oil: Flemington race-by-race analysis with Michael Manley
Sunlight’s love affair with the Flemington straight is set to continue, while it’s not going to be a surprise to anybody if Surprise Baby wins The Bart Cummings, according to Michael Manley.
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It’s an unorthodox preparation but Surprise Baby is a staying star, says leading form analyst Michael Manley, while he is also keen on Sunlight in the Gilgai Stakes.
Resumed from a spell with an excellent fourth in the Feehan Stakes, and with a Melbourne Cup gold pass up for grabs, Michael Manley says expect to see Surprise Baby at his best.
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BEST BET
SURPRISE BABY (R8, No. 3)
VALUE BET
SPANISH WHISPER (R4, No. 2)
EARLY QUADDIE
2,3,6,7/1,8,10,13/2,8/2,3,4,5,9,13
$100 flexi for 52.08%
BIG6
2,8/4,5,9,13/1,4,7/3,4/3,9/7,8,11
$100 flexi for 34.72%
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1,4,5,7
Race 7: 3,4
Race 8: 3,9,10,12
Race 9: 3,6,7,8,11,13,14,17
$100 flexi for 39.06%
WEEKEND BEST BETS: WHO CAN WIN AND WHY?
QUINNY’S TIPS: SURPRISE PICK TO GO DISTANCE
RACE 1: 12.35PM MARIBYRNONG TRIAL (1000M)
Only a field of five and it looks to be a competitive race with every horse a chance. DEEP SPEED (2) has won two Flemington jump-outs and is a $2.80 favourite. DIVINE CAPRICE (6) finished strongly when second to MILDRED (5) over 900m at their debut at Flemington.
THE TRAINER: TONY MCEVOY
DEEP SPEED (R1, No.2): “He’s a nice colt who has done everything right winning two Flemington jump-outs.”
SUGGESTED BET: DEEP SPEED THE WIN (Confidence 5/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Deep Speed $3.80-$2.80 ($500ew @ $3.60/$1.95, $1,000 @ $3.50)
RACE 2: 1.10PM PARIS LANE STAKES (1400M)
Brent Stanley has produced VIOLATE (3) to win twice first-up over 1400m at Flemington in stronger races than this. ROMANCER (6) and MUSIC BAY (7) should get good on speed runs. Hardest horse to assess is former Singapore Horse Of the Year DEBT AGENT (1).
THE TRAINER: JIM CONLAN
DEBT AGENT (R2, No.1): “I’m very happy with the way he’s going but I don’t really know where he fits in in relation to Australian racing. He feels great and will take improvement from the run.”
SUGGESTED BET: VIOLATE THE WIN (Confidence 7/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Violate $8-$3.60 ($500 @ $6, $600 @ $5, $721 @ $4.60, $500 @ $4.20, $1,500place @ $1.85), Mr Money Bags $13-$9
RACE 3: 1.45PM POSEIDON STAKES (1100M)
Looks a clash between two fillies WAYUPINTHESKY (10) and BROOKLYN HUSTLE (13). Punters have backed Wayupinthesky, who won this track and distance last start and she has firmed from $5.50 into $2.70.
THE TRAINER: JASON WARREN
BROOKLYN HUSTLE (R3, No.13): “She’s had a couple of setbacks and her coats a bit dull but her track-work has been faultless. If she runs up to that she’ll be hard to beat.”
SUGGESTED BET: BROOKLYN HUSTLE and WAYUPINTHESKY THE WIN (Confidence 9/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Wayupinthesky $5.50-$2.70 ($2000 @ $3.90, $4,800 @ $3.10, $1,200 @ $3.10), Brooklyn Hustle $5-$3.70 ($800 @ $3.70)
RACE 4: 2.25PM BLAZER STAKES (1400M)
Form analysts and punters have all gravitated to FIDELIA (8), who was held up for a run when third behind SPANISH WHISPER (2) last start over 1400m at Flemington. Spanish Whisper has won twice over this course and distance and will be perfectly positioned on the speed again by Mark Zahra.
THE TRAINER: DAVID HAYES
SPANISH WHISPER (R4, No.2): “She’s a smart mare and she’s improved since her last start win at this course and distance.”
SUGGESTED BET: SPANISH WHISPER EACH-WAY (Confidence 8.5/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Aristia $41-$26, Spanish Whisper $8.50-$7.50, Fidelia $4-$3 ($600ew @ $3.80/$1.70, $650 @ $3.50, $1,200 @ $3.20, $1,000 x (3) @ $3.10, $1,000 @ $3, $1,400place @ $1.50)
RACE 5: 3.05PM SUPER IMPOSE STAKES (1800M)
HIGH TORQUE (13) produced a dazzling sprint home to win at Sale last start over 1600m. Jamie Kah who stays with him was impressed by the performance. ADELAIDE ACE (5) was a tough winner over 1800m in the Derby Trial at Flemington last start. Punters have honed in on Lindsay Park’s INDEPENDENT ROAD (3) who has been backed from $9 into $4.60.
THE TRAINER: DEAN GRASS
HIGH TORQUE (R5, No.13): “His sectionals are as good as anyone’s in the race. He’ll need the speed on and then he’ll have to get out of traffic. He’s ready to run a big race.”
SUGGESTED BET: HIGH TORQUE EACH-WAY (Confidence 7.5/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Independent Road $9-$4.60 ($700 @ $8, $500 @ $6.50, $2,000 @ $6), Adelaide Ace $8-$6, High Torque $31-$10 ($175 win x $325 place @ $15/$5)
RACE 6: 3.45PM GILGAI STAKES (1200M)
Looks a clash between the two star sprinters SANTA ANA LANE (1) and SUNLIGHT (7), who are both having their final runs before The Everest. Sunlight loves this track and distance and she surged home for third in the Moir Stakes at The Valley last Friday. It’s no surprise they are equal favourites at $2.70.
THE TRAINER: TONY MCEVOY
SUNLIGHT (R6, No.7): “That last run has really brought her on. She’s had a great week and she loves the straight.”
SUGGESTED BET: SUNLIGHT THE WIN (Confidence 8/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Sunlight $3.50-$2.70 ($1,000 @ $3, $1,100 @ $2.90)
RACE 7: 4.25PM TURNBULL STAKES (2000M)
All eyes will be on the Tassie star MYSTIC JOURNEY (4) to see whether she can handle 2000m and bounce back from a rare defeat. MR QUICKIE (3) flew home for third in the Makybe Diva Stakes and he’ll relish the 2000m. Big watches on FINCHE (6) and ROSTROPOVICH (5).
THE TRAINER: PHILLIP STOKES
MR QUICKIE (R7, No.3)
“I was surprised by how well he went first-up and the sectionals he ran. He’ll be better suited over 2000m.”
SUGGESTED BET: MYSTIC JOURNEY THE WIN (Confidence 8.5/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Mr Quickie $3.90-$4.20-$3.60 ($2,500ew @ $3.80/$1.60, $2,000 @ $3.70), Mystic Journey $3-$2.70 ($500 @ $2.80, $3,000 @ $2.70, $3,000win x $2,171place @ $2.70/$1.40, $1,000 @ $2.70, $800 @ $2.70), Kings Will Dream $15-$18-$10
RACE 8: 5.05PM THE BART CUMMINGS (2520M)
SURPRISE BABY (3) is an exciting staying prospect and a start in the Melbourne Cup is on the line. He’s been $3 into $2.40. KING OF LEOGRANCE (9) was unlucky last start. Look for the Waterhouse/Bott stayer WOLFE (10) to lead and take catching.
THE TRAINER: PAUL PREUSKER
SURPRISE BABY (R8, No.3)
“Fitness won’t be a problem. He’s shaping up well and hopefully he’ll get the free pass into the Melbourne Cup.”
SUGGESTED BET: SURPRISE BABY THE WIN (Confidence 9/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Dal Harraild $26-19, Surprise Baby $3-$2.40 ($2,500 @ $2.60, $920 @ $2.60), Ventura Storm $17-$15
RACE 9: 5.45PM EDWARD MANIFOLD STAKES (1600M)
MIAMI BOUND (7) has been dynamic winning both of her starts this time in and she’s VRC Oaks bound. Sydney filly SUBPOENAED (11) has been racing well without luck in tougher races.
THE TRAINER: TONY MCEVOY
WESTPORT (R9, No.1)
“I thought it was a really good run last start. She’ll be even better suited over 1600m at Flemington and she’s a good filly.”
SUGGESTED BET: MIAMI BOUND and SUBPOENAED THE WIN (Confidence 9/10)
TAB FIXED ODDS: Excused $16-$12, Miami Bound $3.40-$2.50 ($1,000 @ $3.40), Fascino $23-$16