Nick Quinn: Expert tips and betting analysis for feature races at Flemington and Randwick
Punting guru Nick Quinn is tipping a locally-trained stayer to enhance his Melbourne Cup credentials at Flemington, while an Everest hopeful has been pegged as the lay of the day.
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TAB form expert Nick Quinn casts his eye over the feature races at Flemington and Randwick on Saturday.
QUINNY’S BEST PLAYS
BEST BET: Surprise Baby (Flemington R8, No.4)
VALUE BET: Te Akau Shark (Randwick R7, No.4)
LAY OF THE DAY: Osborne Bulls (Randwick, R5, No.1)
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FLEMINGTON
RACE 6: GILGAI STAKES (1200m)
The money in the Gilgai Stakes has come for the long-time favourite to win The Everest, Santa Ana Lane. He had his return to racing postponed by a fortnight due to the Sydney rain and will have to lump 60kg up the Flemington straight.
Santa Ana Lane has an excellent Flemington record and looks a class above the opposition. One punter stepped into Santa Ana Lane earlier in the week at $4, with a bet of $2000.
The major danger appears to be The Everest-bound mare Sunlight.
Sunlight caught the eye with a fast finishing third behind Nature Strip in the Moir Stakes and has a strong record at Flemington with two wins and two placings from four attempts. Santa Ana Lane is currently $6 for the Everest, expect him to regain favouritism with a win here.
SUGGESTED BET: SANTA ANA LANE the win.
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
RACE 7: TURNBULL STAKES (2000m)
This looks an ideal opportunity for Mystic Journey to return to the winners’ list and stamp herself as the runner to beat in the Cox Plate. She opened $3 favourite on Monday on the “All-In” market off the back of the nominations and punters quickly backed her into $2.50 by the time final field was announced on Wednesday morning.
Mystic Journey had won seven straight starts before running second to surprise winner Gatting in the Makybe Diva Stakes last start. She has drawn slightly wider than would be ideal in barrier nine and is clearly the runner to beat at about the $2.80 mark.
Mr Quickie caught the eye when running third in the Makybe Diva Stakes. He is undefeated second-up and is ticking along nicely for his major spring assignments.
SUGGESTED BET: MYSTIC JOURNEY the win.
RACE 8: THE BART CUMMINGS (2520m)
If there’s going to be a horse who has done all of his racing in Australia to win the Melbourne Cup, it will be Surprise Baby. The Paul Preusker-trained galloper caught the eye when fourth behind Homesman in the Feehan Stakes and will be suited by the step up in trip.
He earmarked himself as a stayer to follow with a dominant win in the Adelaide Cup and was luckless when nosed out in the Andrew Ramsden Stakes. Surprise Baby opened $3 following the barrier draw and has already been backed into $2.70, which seems a reasonable quote.
Stick with Surprise Baby to salute and take a big step towards racing into the race that stops a nation. At longer odds, there has been specking for the ultra consistent Ventura Storm ($17 into $13) and former import Te Akau Caliburn ($17 into $16).
SUGGESTED BET: SURPRISE BABY the win.
RANDWICK
RACE 7: EPSOM HCP (1600m)
At the start of the spring, Te Akau Shark was being touted as the next Kiwi star and an early contender for the Epsom and the Cox Plate. He has had two eye-catching runs, although he has been defeated on both occasions. He was runner-up in the Foxbridge and Tramway, and has blown out to a $7 third pick in the Epsom.
Punters are also put off by the wide barrier (16), but that should not be an issue due to his racing style. He steps up to 1600 metres and the $7 holds each-way appeal.
The Hawkes stable is primed for a big spring and they saddle-up emerging galloper Rock. Rock has resumed with three strong wins, each time stepping up in grade seamlessly and at $7 could again salute.
SUGGESTED BET: TE AKAU SHARK each-way.
TAB BETTING ANALYSIS
FLEMINGTON
TAB TURNBULL STAKES
$2.70 Mystic Journey (opened $2.80; as short as $2.50)
$4.20 Mr Quickie (opened $3.80)
$8.50 Finche (opened $9; as much as $9.50)
$10 Hartnell (opened $10; as much as $11)
$13 Verry Elleegant (opened $11)
$14 Rostropovich (opened $13), Kings Will Dream (opened $18)
$26+ others
GILGAI STAKES
$2.90 Santa Ana Lane (opened $2.50), Sunlight (opened $3.50)
$6 Zoutori (opened $7; as much as $7.50)
$11 Home Of The Brave (opened $12; as much as $13)
$18 I Am Excited (opened $16)
$19 Tyzone (opened $14)
$21 Vital Silver (opened $16)
$23 Bella Martini
$26+ others
THE BART CUMMINGS
$2.60 Surprise Baby (opened $3; as short as $2.40)
$5 King Of Leogrance
$7 Wolfe (opened $6)
$13 Etymology (opened $15)
$14 Ventura Storm (opened $17)
$16 Alfarris (opened $13)
Te Akau Caliburn (opened $15; as much as $17)
$17 Supernova (opened $15; as much as $18)
$23+ others
BLAZER STAKES
$3.10 Fidelia (opened $4; as short as $2.90)
$5 Savatiano (opened $5; as much as $5.50)
$6.50 Angelic Ruler (opened $6)
$7 Pohutukawa (opened $6.50)
$7.50 Spanish Whisper (opened $8.50)
$11 Haut Brion Her (opened $8.50)
$15 Celebrity Dream (opened $15; as short as $14)
$17 My Pendant (opened $17; as much as $19)
$21 Dawn Dawn (opened $21; as short as $19)
$23 Fabric (opened $21)
$31 Aristia (opened $41)
EDWARD MANIFOLD STAKES
$3.20 Miami Bound (opened $3.40)
$4.20 Subpoenaed (opened $4)
$6.50 Affair To Remember (first emergency - opened $7.50)
$10 Bonvicini (opened $9.50)
$13 Really Discreet (opened $12)
$15 Excused (opened $16)
$16 Deserved (opened $14)
$17 Oriental Lily (opened $19), Leven Lass (opened $19), Presently (opened $16)
$21 Selica (second emergency - opened $23)
$23+ others
SUPER IMPOSE STAKES
$6.50 The Lifeline (opened $7)
$7 Adelaide Ace (opened $8; as short as $6.50)
$8 Huntly Castle, Independent Road (opened $9)
$10 Hinchpin, Long Jack (opened $8)
$11 High Torque (opened $31)
$12 Serious Liaison (opened $11)
$15 Whispered (opened $13)
$17 Reckoning (opened $13)
$18 Olympic Oath (opened $17)
$23+ others
POSEIDON STAKES
$3.70 Brooklyn Hustle (opened $5)
$4.80 Wayupinthesky (opened $5.50)
$9 Excess Funds (opened $7.50)
$10 Sebrakate (opened $9), Taraayef (opened $10; as much as $11)
$12 Heirborn (opened $10)
$15 Order Of Fury (opened $13; as much as $16)
$17 Garibaldi (opened $19)
$19 The Executioner (opened $21; as much as $26), Pin Sec (opened $15), Lady Naturaliste (opened $15), Hearty Lass (opened $15)
$23+ others
PARIS LANE STAKES
$3.20 Cascadian (opened $3.50)
$7 Debt Agent (opened $6.50), Violate (opened $8), Music Bay (opened $6.50), $8 Romancer (opened $7)
$10 Mr Money Bags (opened $11), Rich Itch (opened $10; as short as $9.50)
$15 Magna Bella (opened $13)
$19 I Am Vinnie (opened $15)
$26+ others
MARIBYRNONG TRIAL STAKES
$3 Divine Caprice (opened $2.90)
$3.60 Deep Speed (opened $3.80)
$5 Mildred (opened $4.80)
$6 Boom Daddy
$6.50 The Big Easy (opened $7)
$10 Jerle