SuperCoach Racing 2021: Rob Sutherland’s magic metric picks for Round One

No time to pick your SuperCoach Racing stable? No stress, Rob Sutherland – and the bookies – have done the work for you right here!

SuperCoach Racing is back for the spring carnival and for all of you who don’t have time to do the form – and want a slightly different take than that provided by genuine form experts like Chris Vernuccio and Jett Hatton – I’m back too with my ‘magic metric.’

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For those who are new to this column, each week I rank the leading contenders that offer a, hopefully, winning blend of popularity in the betting market and cheap SuperCoach price.

To compare apples with apples I have added a weighting to reflect the different points on offer for Group 1, 2, 3 and non black type races.

Below I list the 20 best rated horses, run through the stable I have selected and then throw in a bit of bonus analysis on the jockeys too.

MY 20 TOP-RATED HORSES FOR ROUND ONE (GROUP 1 IN BOLD)

Horse	Price	Odds	Metric	Race
Elusive Express	$125K	$3.2	0.52	G2 Manifold
Incentivise	$200K	$2.7	0,54	G1 Turnbull
Daisies	$50K	$9	0.58	G2 Manifold
Startantes	$200K	$3.5	0.7	G1 Flight
Glint Of Hope	$50K	$11	0.71	G2 Manifold
Ingratiating	$200K	$3.3	0.85	G2 Danehill
Ranch Hand	$150K	$4.4	0.85	G2 Danehill
Four Moves Ahead	$200K	$5	1	G1 Flight
Think It over	$450K	$2	1.16	G2 Hill Stks
Verry Elleegant	$500K	$2.5	1.25	G1 Turnbull
Riodini	$275K	$4.6	1.27	G1 Epsom
Duais	$200K	$5	1.29	G2 Hill Stks
Mallory	$200K	$6.5	1.3	G1 Flight
Annavisto	$200K	$5.5	1.4	G2 Rose
Entente	$250K	$6	1.5	G1 Metrop
Montefilia	$325K	$5.5	1.79	G1 Metrop
Private Eye	$225K	$8	1.8	G1 Epsom
Keiai Nautique	$350K	$5	2.26	G2 Hill Stks
She's Ideel	$350K	$6.5	2.28	G1 Metrop
Mo'unga	$375K	$6.5	2.44	G1 Epsom

FROM THIS LIST I HAVE SELECTED THE FOLLOWING STABLE OF 8 HORSES

Horse	Price	Odds	Metric	Race
Elusive Express	$125K	$3.2	0.52	G2 Manifold
Incentivise	$200K	$2.7	0,54	G1 Turnbull
Startantes	$200K	$3.5	0.7	G1 Flight
Four Moves Ahead	$200K	$5	1	G1 Flight
Riodini	$275K	$4.6	1.27	G1 Epsom
Entente	$250K	$6	1.5	G1 Metrop
Montefilia	$325K	$5.5	1.79	G1 Metrop
Private Eye	$225K	$8	1.8	G1 Epsom

Elusive Express sits atop my table and is the only non Group 1 horse I will take into the opening round. The Anthony and Sam Freedman trained filly absolutely flew home to finish third at her last start and it looks like she’ll relish the extra 200m in this trip. Opened at $3.2, already into $2.90 which would have her further ahead on my metric.

Incentivise is next and while the G1 Turnbull would have been an easier race had Verry Elleegant stayed up in Sydney I’ll still take the Moody galloper at less than half the salary cap hit that Waller’s star costs. Verry Elleegant is all class though so I won’t be captaining Incentivise this week, and with other runners being a hefty price he’s the only one I’ll have in the race.

I’m doubling up in the other Group 1 races of the day though with Startantes and Four Moves Ahead my two picks in the Flight Stakes. Startantes opened at $4.50 and is already in to $3.70 at the time of writing. The Queensland filly had a cracking run in the G1 Golden Rose at her last start finishing less than three lengths off the winner there and has drawn perfectly for this race. Four Moves Ahead cruised to victory in the G2 Tea Rose at her last start and looks like she’ll be right in this.

Riodini is the first of my Epsom runners and likely captain. The Waterhouse/Bott trained gelding finished second less than a length off Verry Elleegant under WFA conditions last start and while the draw is wide will appreciate the huge drop in weights on that run. My likely captain. Private Eye is the other I like in the Epsom. He’s never run at G1 level but has a win in G2 (Queensland Guineas), a great strike rate and I’ve always had a soft spot for trainer Joe Pride who seems to be able to get a horse up under the radar at times.

That leaves my two Metropolitan runners Entente and Montefilia. Last start winner Entente gets in with just 52.5kg on his back and Gai Waterhouse trains them tough so three races in three weeks should not be a problem. Montefilia is my other runner. The current favourite did finish behind She’s Ideel last start and has drawn the carpark, but she also meets her 3.5kg better at the weights …

* A note, at the time I put together the metric the price for (Group 3) Gimcrack favourite Coolangatta was not in. I do expect classy Maher/Eustace trained filly will get in at bottom dollar and as she’s around $2 in the market she would be right near the top of the metric. However, I’m chasing the higher points on offer in Group One and Group Two races so would not select her anyway. That said, if you need a true bottom-dollar type you could do worse.

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AND NOW TO THE JOCKEYS

Jockey	# Rides	Under $5	Under $10
James McDonald	10	1	5
Tommy Berry	10	1	2
Damien Oliver	8	1	4
Nash Rawiller	8	2	3
Hugh Bowman	8	1	4
Kerrin MCEvoy	8	0	3
Damian Lane	6	1	5
John Allen	6	2	4

It’s a big list with no massive standouts. JMac and Tommy Berry have big books and in general I find the more chances the better for your jockey in SuperCoach. McDonald’s looks the best book and he's probably the safe bet. If you want to go an alternative path both John Allen and Damian Lane have smaller books of rides but loads of chances in them and they could be good points of difference here.

Originally published as SuperCoach Racing 2021: Rob Sutherland’s magic metric picks for Round One