Melbourne Cup 2020: Predicted finish for every runner
Three internationals are jostling for Melbourne Cup favouritism – which one of them will emerge on top? Or can a local repel the raiders again? Chris Vernuccio predicts the finishing order.
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International trio Anthony Van Dyck, Sir Dragonet and Tiger Moth are in a tussle for Melbourne Cup favouritism after a dramatic barrier draw.
But barriers aren’t the only factor to consider when determining who will win.
Form analyst CHRIS VERNUCCIO has run his eye over the Cup field and predicts where every runner will finish from first to last.
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1. TIGER MOTH
Despite being the least experienced runner in the field, he fits the profile of recent winners Cross Counter and Rekindling, as well last year’s unlucky third placegetter Il Paradiso – a lightly-raced northern-hemisphere three-year-old low in the weights. He sealed his place in the Melbourne Cup with a dominant four-length win in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes in Ireland at only his fourth start. Dig deeper into his form and there are ties to Caulfield Cup runner-up Anthony Van Dyck and Cox Plate runner-up Armory. The wide barrier is a blow but he still goes on top.
2. SIR DRAGONET
The late strength the Irish import displayed in his runaway Cox Plate victory points to a huge run when he steps up to 3200m. Last year in the English Derby he was beaten less than a length by Caulfield Cup runner-up Anthony Van Dyck and then ran a credible fourth when he stepped up to 2900m in the English St Leger. Still a big threat even if he doesn’t get his preferred soft conditions.
3. PRINCE OF ARRAN
Yet to run a bad race in Australia – his fourth in the Caulfield Cup was his “worst” run here. He was the eye-catcher from that race with the best last 400m and 200m from the rear of the field. He’s a proven Melbourne Cup performer and looks capable of a third-straight top three result.
4. RUSSIAN CAMELOT
Bought as a yearling in Britain, he looked the winner in the Cox Plate before feeling the pinch in the last 200m after a tough run, holding on for third. Talented and still very raw, the 3200m won’t be a problem for him but his winning chances will hinge on how he bounces from that taxing Cox Plate effort. It could be a year too soon for him.
5. ANTHONY VAN DYCK
Outstanding effort by the Epsom Derby winner to finish within a neck of Verry Elleegant in the Caulfield Cup after starting from barrier 17 and hauling 58.5kg. While top-weights have a decent record in the Caulfield Cup, it’s a more difficult task in the Melbourne Cup. His class will take him a long way and a low barrier helps.
6. VERRY ELLEEGANT
To claim the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double she will have to carry the same weight as Makybe Diva in her second Melbourne Cup success in 2004. The five-year-old mare, however, is at the peak of her powers with four Group 1s this year – and she did win the Caulfield Cup with the second highest weight for a winning mare since 1942 – which makes her a legitimate contender. She can handle good ground but a wet track would have been better.
MELBOURNE CUP SWEEP
7. SURPRISE BABY
Gets a favourable draw this time after he ran enormous in last year’s Cup from barrier 20 to finish fifth. The lightly-raced six-year-old is following a similar pattern of two runs before the main target. In the Turnbull Stakes, where he was disadvantaged by the set-weights and penalties conditions, he was hitting the line just as well as winner Verry Elleegant. Horsham trainer Paul Preusker will have him peaking for the 3200m.
8. TWILIGHT PAYMENT
For the second straight year the Lloyd Williams-owned raider will run first-up in the Cup. The eight-year-old finished 11th last year after jumping from a wide barrier but is arguably in better form than 12 months ago. He’s won two of his four starts in Ireland, including the Group 2 Curragh Cup by eight lengths, and he recorded his best result in the Group 1 Irish St Leger last start when third. The bolter in the race.
9. FINCHE
This is his third attempt at the Cup after a fourth in 2018 and seventh last year. He heads into the race after another fifth in the Caulfield Cup. That’s his level. He lacks another gear that could help him find a few extra lengths to be a top three chance.
10. ASHRUN
The German raider had too much class in the Hotham Handicap to prevail in the last stride despite missing the start and the dawdling tempo being against him. Forget his run in the Geelong Cup, the wider Flemington track was more to his liking and the acceleration he showed in the Hotham makes him a player. Barrier 24 does hurt.
11. MASTER OF REALITY
Relegated from second to fourth in last year’s Cup after a stewards’ protest. Don’t read too much into the first two runs of his campaign where the gap between him and stablemate Twilight Payment was a combined 19 lengths. He has gradually built his fitness which culminated with a comfortable victory in the Listed Her Majesty’s Plate last start.
12. STEEL PRINCE
The 2019 Andrew Ramsden winner had to earn his Melbourne Cup spot via the Geelong Cup. This time his lead-up form is stronger and, although it’s a deeper edition, he can match or better last year’s ninth placing.
13. MIAMI BOUND
The four-year-old mare had the race shape and track conditions to suit in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup to record her first win since last year’s VRC Oaks. With 51kg she can be a factor if she gets another solid tempo, but probably needs a wet track to push into the top 10.
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14. STRATUM ALBION
Has been successful in both jumps and flat races over his career. This year, however, he’s been beaten by heavy margins over the hurdles before a fast-finishing second in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup behind classy mare Enbihaar. Not expecting much but have to respect he’s trained by Willie Mullins, who has twice come close to winning the Melbourne Cup with Max Dynamite off a similar training program.
15. AVILIUS
A top three finish went begging in the Caulfield Cup after the Godolphin runner copped severe interference in the straight. That was a much-improved showing from the seven-year-old, no doubt aided by the soft track. He’s at the stage of his career where the right conditions are needed to produce his best.
16. WARNING
Flemington is a better track for the VRC Derby winner after he toiled around Caulfield in the Caulfield Cup. Although there are signs the four-year-old will run out 3200m, he likely needs a wet track to be at the pointy end.
17. THE CHOSEN ONE
Began his campaign with a robust win at Flemington carrying 61.5kg which was followed by two shockers in the Underwood Stakes and Herbert Power then a surprise third in the Caulfield Cup at $61. Inconsistent.
18. VOW AND DECLARE
The defending champ has failed to impress since that memorable triumph 12 months ago, and was decisively beaten in the Caulfield Cup to go five runs unplaced since his third in the Australian Cup in March. It’s difficult to win back-to-back Cups when a campaign is going to plan, let alone for a horse out of form.
19. DASHING WILLOUGHBY
Something obviously wasn’t right with the English raider after he finished a long last in the Caulfield Cup. Prior to that run he was in career-best form and had beaten a quality field in the Group 3 Henry II Stakes over 3264m where 2018 Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter was a distant third. Can improve but this isn’t the race to rebound from a setback.
20. KING OF LEOGRANCE (SCRATCHED)
The Lloyd Williams import hadn’t kicked on after two effortless wins earlier in the year in the Roy Higgins Quality and Adelaide Cup – the form out of both races had been ordinary. He was battling to stay in touch in the Turnbull Stakes and had his chance to win the Geelong Cup when third. Has now been scratched by the vets.
21. MUSTAJEER
The eight-year-old has had four unplaced runs this prep but his eighth in the Caulfield Cup was an improvement. That won’t be enough to have an impact.
22. PERSAN
It has been a long campaign for the four-year-old, who has kept raising the bar since winning a Bendigo maiden in May. He’s won six of his 10 starts for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, the latest in the Bart Cummings which earned him an exemption into the Melbourne Cup. His rapid improvement has been a surprise and there has to be some doubt at 3200m.
23. OCEANEX
Guaranteed a Cup start after winning the Andrew Ramsden in April, the mare had made little impression in three runs before a more encouraging third in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. This is a big step up for her.
24. ETAH JAMES
Won the Sydney Cup in the autumn but hasn’t shown much in two runs this prep in The Metropolitan and Moonee Valley Gold Cup.