Melbourne Cup 2020: Biggest bets and the best backed horses
It’s always hard to know where to put your money for the Melbourne Cup, made even tougher when crazy bets are being put on horses you were sure were never a chance.
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It’s always hard to know where to put your money for the Melbourne Cup, made even tougher when crazy bets are being put on horses you were sure were never a chance.
While Tiger Moth remains the $7 favourite to take out the famous race, there’s plenty of money going on a wealth of other names.
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HERE’S THE LATEST FROM TAB
$20,000 the win / $5000 the place @ $13/$4 on Russian Camelot [collect $280,000] Final Field
$4000 @ $51 on Ashrun to win [collect $204,000] All In
$1000 the win / $2000 the place @ $101/$26 on Mustajeer [collect $153,000] All In ** two separate bets **
$2000 each-way @ $51/$13.50 on Miami Bound [collect $129,000] All In
$1200 @ $101 on Mustajeer to win [collect $121,200] Final Field
$1000 the win / $2500 the place @ $67/$17.50 on Mustajeer [collect $110,750] All In
$2000 the win / $500 the place @ $51/$13.50 on King Of Leogrance [collect $108,750] All In
$3000 @ $34 on Miami Bound to win [collect $102,000] All In
$2000 @ $51 on Steel Prince to win [collect $102,000] All In
$2000 @ $51 on King Of Leogrance to win [collect $102,000] All In
$1000 @ $101 on Etah James to win [collect $101,000] Final Field
$400 each-way @ $201/$51 on Etah James [collect $100,800] All In
Best backed for the win since ‘Final Field’ (single bets only)
1. Anthony Van Dyck ($8.50) 11%
2. Tiger Moth ($8) 11%
3, Surprise Baby ($9) 10%
4. Verry Elleegant ($11) 9%
5. Russian Camelot ($13) 8%
Best backed for the place since ‘Final Field’ (single bets only)
1. Surprise Baby ($3) 9%
2. Prince Of Arran ($3.25) 9%
3. Verry Elleegant ($3.50) 9%
4. Sir Dragonet ($3.25) 6%
5. Finche ($5) 6%
TAB ODDS
$8 Tiger Moth
$8.50 Anthony Van Dyck
$9 Surprise Baby
$10 Sir Dragonet
Prince Of Arran
$11 Verry Elleegant
$13 Russian Camelot
$17 Finche
$19 Master Of Reality
$23 Ashrun
$26 Twilight Payment
$31 The Chosen One
Persan
$34 Steel Prince
$41 Miami Bound
$51 Avilius
Vow And Declare
Stratum Albion
King Of Leogrance (SCRATCHED)
Warning
$71 Dashing Willoughby
Oceanex
$81 Mustajeer
Etah James
WHY IS TIGER MOTH FAVOURITE?
Werribee’s quarantine station is traditionally a magnet for purists, horsemen and form students attempting to run the rule over the visiting international Melbourne Cup contenders.
Most mornings are a leisurely affair as locals and high-rollers mix casually in the grandstand as the raiders saunter onto the track, seemingly oblivious to daily assessment.
Werribee’s honour roll is impressive which is why, until the pandemic stopped it, there has been such a steady flow of visitors to trackwork.
ULTIMATE GUIDE TO THE 2020 MELBOURNE CUP
TRIO JOINT CUP FAVOURITES AFTER BARRIER DRAW
Since its opening in 2010, Americain, Dunaden, Protectionist, Rekindling and Cross Counter have all emerged from Werribee’s barns to lift the Melbourne Cup.
All of those wins, in their own way, are regarded as game-changers. With each running of the Cup, the profile of those most likely to win has evolved.
Rekindling (2017) and Cross Counter (’18) triumphed at Flemington as northern hemisphere three-year-olds. That is now, seemingly, the preferred method of attack.
There is only one international in this year’s field with a similar profile — Tiger Moth.
Kerrin McEvoy, who is chasing a fourth Cup success, partnered Cross Counter two years ago and sees ready parallels with Tiger Moth, who has had only four career starts.
“He’s probably got a similar profile to the others in that he’s lightly raced and obviously ran in some quality three-year-old races in the UK season just gone,” McEvoy said.
“So you’d think that he’s shown just as much progress as those two horses (Rekindling and Cross Counter).”
Tiger Moth will need to be every bit as good as his looks. The bay son of Galileo has flourished at Werribee, towing Caulfield Cup runner-up Anthony Van Dyck and Cox Plate second placegetter Armory around virtually every circuit.
Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Tiger Moth will attempt to create modern history by winning the Cup at just his fifth start.
O’Brien’s travelling foreman TJ Comerford believes inexperience will play no role.
“I’m not concerned at all about him not having a lot of races,” the Irishman said.
“It’s not an issue at all.”
McEvoy has no qualms over Tiger Moth’s sparse career. He believes he will have the ringcraft to adapt in a race which becomes harder to win each year.
“I think it’s getting stronger,” he said.
“This year highlights that with the fact we’ve got an Epsom Derby winner (Anthony Van Dyck) and we have other horses coming out here and competing.
“Everything says it’s just getting harder and stronger for the southern hemisphere horses to win this race.
“Obviously, last year they were able to do it (with Vow And Declare) but it’s definitely turned into a quality race.”
McEvoy is usually associated with Godolphin, having ridden internationally for the Blue Army for almost 20 years.
On Tuesday, he will be wearing Coolmore silks.
“Obviously it’s great to be on one of theirs in the race this year,” McEvoy said.
“It was said early doors that Godolphin weren’t bringing out so this horse is a nice one to pick up for Coolmore and the team.”
McEvoy has been one of the few authorised to set foot inside the quarantine centre.
He likes what Tiger Moth has to offer, but is acutely aware of the dangers.
“I think Anthony Van Dyck will be hard to beat,” he said.
“I liked the way he looked the other morning and you can make a case for a lot of them.
“Of the horses that we’ve seen, you’ve got to have respect for Verry Elleegant and Prince Of Arran, he’s shown in the Caulfield Cup (when fourth) that he’s back to somewhere near his best.”
Comerford hopes the stable’s run of near misses will end with either Tiger Moth or Anthony Van Dyck.
“We’ve gone close in the past with Johannes Vermeer (in 2017) when Joseph (O’Brien) beat us (with Rekindling),” he said.
“They’re really good chances. One (Anthony Van Dyck) is an English Derby winner. The other (Tiger Moth) is a Group 3 winner and second in an Irish Derby and obviously well handicapped.
“I would like to think we have two good chances.
“Tiger Moth, he has obviously got to get the trip (3200m), but he’s won over a mile and a half (2400m) and was convincing.
“I’d like to think he’d get two miles, which those Galileos do.
“I’d like to think that Anthony Van Dyck and Tiger Moth, the better ground will help both of them.
“Tiger Moth’s work couldn’t be any better. His work the other day was good and it seems to have sharpened him up.
“He looks well and he’s going well. He’s doing everything right.
“It would be great if we were first of second … anything is possible.”
Eight raiders will contest the race — Anthony Van Dyck, Tiger Moth, Prince Of Arran, Master Of Reality, Twilight Payment, Dashing Willoughby, Stratum Albion and True Self.
Of those, apart from Tiger Moth, the most intriguing is Stratum Albion, who has mixed hurdling and flat racing over the past year.
Trained by Willie Mullins, the gelding has been prepared similarly to dual Cup placegetter Max Dynamite.
RAIDERS FIND WINNING FORMULA
- Chris Vernuccio
After watching the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup, the internationals still waiting their turn at Werribee will need to be very good to win Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.
Irish import Sir Dragonet surged to second favourite in the Cup following his brilliant win in the Cox Plate, with former stablemate Tiger Moth — one of those raiders we haven’t seen yet — holding his position at the top of the market.
Tiger Moth, a northern-hemisphere three-year-old with just four starts to his name, could be an exceptional horse and Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien’s best hope of securing his first Melbourne Cup triumph.
In the past decade it’s been easier to win a raffle than pick the Melbourne Cup winner, particularly when those “first-up off the plane” internationals starting winning, but there’s more exposed form this year.
Tiger Moth is coming off a dominant four-length win in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown in Ireland, beating Lloyd Williams’ Buckburst, who finished mid-field in the Caulfield Cup before failing in the Cox Plate.
Tiger Moth has a similar profile as recent winners Cross Counter (2018) and Rekindling (2017), as well as last year’s luckless third placegetter Il Paradiso, who was trained by O’Brien at the time.
Sir Dragonet, who relished the wet conditions at The Valley, is aiming to become only the eighth horse to win the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup in the same year.
The reason so few horses have achieved that calendar-year double is because it’s rarely attempted and not a reason to dismiss the Cox Plate as suitable platform for the 3200m staying test.
So You Think ran a gallant third in the 2010 Melbourne Cup after winning the Cox Plate, and Fiorente won the Cup after a gutbusting third in the 2013 Cox Plate.
Russian Camelot, like Fiorente, ran third in the Cox Plate after a similarly arduous effort. Although Russian Camelot has to be considered, he isn’t as seasoned as Sir Dragonet, and trainer Danny O’Brien will be hoping his emerging stayer can recover fully.
Sir Dragonet along with the Caulfield Cup quinella Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck have set the standard for this year’s Melbourne Cup.
But the Melbourne Cup sets up very different for Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck.
Five-year-old mare Verry Elleegant will now carry 55.5kg, the same weight Makybe Diva shouldered to win the 2004 Melbourne Cup, while Anthony Van Dyck will lump 58.5kg, which was last carried to victory by Think Big in 1975.
Last year the Caulfield Cup broke an 11-year drought in the Melbourne Cup when Vow And Declare saluted from that race.
If it’s to happen again, Prince Of Arran showed he’s going as well as ever. Maybe it will be third time lucky for the eight-year-old.
The best local hope is Surprise Baby, who ran fifth in the Cup last year.
As for who wins? It’s a 50-50 call between Tiger Moth and Sir Dragonet. Tiger Moth if it’s a good track, Sir Dragonet if the ground is soft.