Marmelo looks value in cup, says punting guru Matt Welsh

JOH­ANNES Vermeer is the horse to beat, but fellow import Marmelo might be the best value runner in the Caulfield Cup, says leading form analyst Matt Welsh.

THE bookies filled their boots on Caulfield Guineas Day, with despised outsider Mighty Boss turning most quaddie tickets into confetti.

Punters — this one inclu­ded — are keen to fight back on Saturday.

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For the jockeys in the Caulfield Cup, the richest 2400m handicap in the world, their focus will be on finding a strong position in the first 400m dash past the winning post.

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How things unfold in those first two furlongs will be pivotal in determining who crosses the line first 2000m later.

It has been a war of attrition just to get to the starting gates.

Admire Deus was nearing favouritism when he was the subject of a $30,000 bet on Monday.

Sadly, the Japanese import was withdrawn after suffering a serious injury at Warrnam­bool on Tuesday.

Former favourite Bonneval has drifted all week.

Her run in the Caulfield Stakes was middling and a cloud over her health as added to the intrigue.

What had been a faultless lead-up to the race for the Oaks-winning New Zealand mare has gone pear-shaped at the 11th hour.

Marmelo might be the best value runner in the Caulfield Cup, says form expert Matt Welsh. Picture: AAP

Her best is good enough to win and she has the white hot Kerrin McEvoy in the pigskin, but she’s going to need all of Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman’s mastery to get over the line.

Barring a late plunge, Joh­annes Vermeer will favourite at his second Australian start.

Trained by Robert Hick­mott for Lloyd Williams, he closed off brilliantly at weight-for-age level in the 2000m Caulfield Stakes.

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Expect the five-year-old Irish entire to be more pro­minent in the run from gate two for Ben Melham.

He’s the horse to beat, but in an open race, there isn’t much fat on the bone at $4.40.

Marmelo might be the best value runner in the race.

Hugh Bowman will ride Marmelo in the Caulfield Cup. Picture: Getty Images

He has done his recent racing in France and is a horse who can either take up a position on speed or drop in behind depending on tempo.

Marmelo won the Prix Kergorlay at Deauville before coming to Australia, a race won by Americain and Protec­tionist before they won their Melbourne Cups.

Humidor shot to promi­nence in Caulfleld Cup betting with a withering burst of speed that saw him take out the Makybe Diva.

But he was Winxed in the Turnbull and on face value that was a poor run.

He maps well but does look a risk at 2400m.

Jon Snow is tough. He won the AJC Derby last year and comes from the same stable as Bonneval.

On-speed runners will be hard to topple and he’s the best of them.

Macca has thrown his hat into the ring with his Caulfield Cup selection.

Lord Fandango won his ticket to the race with a tough win in a brutal Herbert Power.

He is fit, will eat the 2400m and his trainer, Archie Alexan­der, is a star on the rise.

Ventura Storm maps extre­mely well and was excellent in the Turnbull.

Amelie’s Star has improved with each run this campaign.

Inference is building to this grand final.

All three have claims.

Johannes Vermeer brings A-grade Group 1 weight-for-age form and needs to repeat his first Australian run to justify favouritism. The 2400m might be a slight query.

At $16 (Friday night), Marmelo looks tremendous value.

THE SPEED

The question in mapping this year’s Caulfield Cup is: Where does the speed come from Ultimately, it looks as though Jon Snow or Sir Isaac Newton will take it up. No one is riding with more confidence than Kerrin McEvoy and, although near-last on my map, Bonneval has the capability of being midfield. On-speed horses are going to get their chance and it will take a very good horse to win from the second half of the field.

THE BET

No. 2 Marmelo $10 Win X $15 Place

No. 3 Johannes Vermeer $35 Win

Trifecta $40 returns 22.22%

2,3,11/2,3,4,7,9,11,17/1,2,3,4,7,8,9,11,14,15,16,17

THE TIPS

1 JOHANNES VERMEER (3)

2 MARMELO (2)

3 BONNEVAL (11)

4 LORD FANDANGO (17)

THE STRATEGY

Here’s one $100 plan for Caulfield Cup Day

Race 1 No. 6 Our Crown Mistress $20W

Race 2 Trifecta: 3,10/2,3,5,10/1,2,3,5,6,8,10 for $15 (50% flexi)

Race 9 No. 13 Shellelagh $10W x $15P

Race 10 No. 3 Nieta $40W

THE CARD

RACE 1

6. OUR CROWN MISTRESS

7. BEERZATBERNZ

5. SUPER SNOB

3. COUNTERPLAY

RACE 2

10. WOULDA THOUGHT SO

3. ECLAIR SUNSHINE

5. OCTABELLO

2. BEAU GESTE

RACE 3

6. PINOT

5. HIYAAM

15. STUDIO CITY

1. ONE MORE HONEY

RACE 4

2. CLIFF’S EDGE

1. TANGLED

8. SWEET MISCHIEF

4. MAIN STAGE

Samovare looks well placed to bounce back from her last-start Caulfield defeat. Picture: AAP

RACE 5

8. SAMOVARE

1. ASSIGN

5. SPECTROSCOPE

10. KIWIA

RACE 6

6. GRANDE ROSSO

10. ECKSTEIN

8. ECHO EFFECT

1. ALL OUR ROADS

RACE 7

6. OCEAN EMBERS

10. PROPERTY

8. SNITTY KITTY

9. SUPER TOO

RACE 9

13. SHILLELAGH

1. FOXPLAY

11. COOL PASSION

12. EURO ANGEL

RACE 10

3. NIETA

9. CRYSTAL FOUNTAIN

1. FUHRYK

2. PRUSSIAN VIXEN

Super Too should guarantee a fierce speed up front in the first leg of the quaddie. Picture: Simon Bullard

THE QUADDIE

LEG 1 (Race 7)

SNITTY KITTY (8) and SUPER TOO (9) should set a cracking pace over the short course. OCEAN EMBERS (6) was good late first-up, draws a favourable alley and will close strongly. The lone 3YO, PROPERTY (10), comes through the Blue Diamond as a 2YO. He comes off a strong Cranbourne trial in fast time and should be afforded every opportunity from an ideal alley. The two on-speed runners are fit, fast and in form.

6, 8, 9, 10

LEG 2 (Race 8)

JOHANNES VERMEER (3) deserves favouritism based on his slashing run in the Caulfield Stakes. MARMELO (2) comes through the Prix Kergolay — traditionally a strong pointer to the Melbourne spring — and he should run a bold race fresh off the plane. BONNEVAL (11) has been the subject of fitness concerns but her best is better than these. LORD FANDANGO (17), INFERENCE (9), JON SNOW (4), HUMIDOR (1) and HARLEM (15) all go in.

1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 11, 15, 17

LEG 3 (Race 9)

Wow! Another very tricky race. SHILLELAGH (13) trialled well then had little luck first-up, she looks super value. FOXPLAY (1) drops back to mares grade after tackling Winx and the Group 1 Epsom. COOL PASSION (11) atoned for two luckless runs in SA with a good win at Caulfield and EURO ANGEL (12) will love the strong tempo. SILENT SEDITION (2) is a Group 1 winner but has a wide draw to overcome, NOW OR LATER (8) broke through for an Australian win last start while SWAMPLAND (16) will be charging late. Going wide.

1, 2, 8, 11, 12, 13, 16

LEG 4 (Race 10)

This is the leg to go skinny. NIETA (3) picks herself. She was close-up to Redzel at 1000m and 1100m before stepping to 1200m and covering ground last start. She has drawn ideally to track a strong speed set by HIGHLY GEARED (5), CONCHITA (6) and PRUSSIAN VIXEN (2). NIETA stands out as the best bet on the card, taking her one out. If you want insurance FUHRYK (1) and CRYSTAL FOUNTAIN (9) are next best.

3

Cost: $50 for 22.32% return

SKINNY QUADDIE

Leg 1: 6,8,9,10

Leg 2: 2,3,11

Leg 3: 1,3,8,11,12,13

Leg 4: 3

$50 for 69.44% return

Johannes Vermeer is drawn to get the box seat. (Brett Holburt/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

Joh all the go after debut

By Michael Manley

ONLY a week ago Johannes Vermeer wasn’t in the conversation as a Caulfield Cup chance, let alone the clear favourite.

But his impressive second at his Australian debut in the Caulfield Stakes — an ideal Caulfield Cup trial — sent punters into a frenzy.

TAB’s Nick Quinn said he was $51 before the Caulfield Stakes, after which his price was slashed to $9.

He is now all the rage at $4.40 and has been the best-backed runner since Tuesday’s barrier draw.

“I don’t remember anything like it. Since the Caulfield Stakes punters have singled him out as the horse to beat and can’t get enough money on him,” Quinn said.

Quinn said one TAB punter placed $7500 for the win on Johannes Vermeer at $4.40 yesterday.

“He got in as short as $4.20 yesterday, before a slight drift out to $4.40. It will be interesting to see whether punters stick with him or go looking for better value.”

Quinn said two former pre-post favourites for the Caulfield Cup, Humidor and Bonneval, now represented good value for punters.

Humidor, who had been the $6.50 pre-post favourite, is out to $8.50 while Bonneval is $8.

Quinn said there had been good support for Damien Oliver’s Caulfield Cup mount Ventura Storm, who has been $12 into $11.

A punter placed a bet of $4000 for a win on the Italian Group 1 winner at $12.

He also pointed out a longshot move for English stayer Marmelo, who has firmed from $21 into $17.

Quinn said another Lloyd Williams stayer, Assign, has been the subject of good support with a bet of $10,000 at $5.50.

Punters are warming to Assign winning race four on the program.

Backing up from last Saturday, Assign has been backed from $5.50 into $4.80, including one $10,000 win bet at $5.50.

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Vermeer right model for cup, says Melham

By Michael Manley

BEN Melham says he may never have a better Caulfield Cup chance than on well-backed favourite Johannes Vermeer.

“I wouldn’t swap him for anything. He’s the right type of horse for this race,” Melham said.

Support for the $4.40 top pick continued with the TAB, with one bet of $7500 at that price yesterday.

Katelyn Mallyon rode Johannes Vermeer at his Australian debut last Saturday when a slashing second to Gailo Chop in the Caulfield Stakes.

Yesterday stewards released owner Lloyd Williams’ tactics for his pair of runners, Sir Isaac Newton and Johannes Vermeer.

Williams told stewards the intention was for Katelyn Mallyon to lead on Sir Isaac Newtown, as he’s better rolling forward than being restrained.

He said he wanted Johannes Vermeer to be ridden positively with third to fifth his ideal position in running.

Melham said Johannes Vermeer had the speed to take up a forward position but if that didn’t work out, he wasn’t concerned.

“For me nothing there’s nothing to be worried about. A lot will depend on the conditions and how the track is playing but he’s adaptable,” said Melham, 28, who is chasing a 15th Group 1 victory.

“I can move into the race on my own terms such is his turn of foot.

“He relaxes well and he has good change-up speed. He’s the right model for the Caulfield Cup — I’m pretty confident.”

Melham said it was a privilege riding for two of racing’s best operators in Lloyd Williams and Aidan O’Brien.

“They are two very astute and successful people in Lloyd Williams and Aidan O’Brien,” he said.

“Lloyd has been very important to me. I’ve learnt a lot from him as he’s watched so many races and has such a good handle on racing. I respect his opinion.

“(And) it’s a great thrill to be riding for Aidan O’Brien.”

Five-year-old stallion Johannes Vermeer has won four of 14 starts including a Group 1 win in France in November, 2015. Johannes Vermeer won the Group 3 International Stakes at The Curragh in July and was second in the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes at Leopardstown in August before coming to Australia.

O’Brien is aiming for his 25th Group 1 win for the season, which would equal American Bobby Frankel’s record.

Melham’s last Group 1 win was aboard She Will Reign in the Golden Slipper in April.

MICHAEL MANLEY’S LATE MAIL

WHO’S HOT

STAR jockey Kerrin McEvoy has had a week to remember with five wins from 15 starts including doubles at Randwick last Saturday and at Caulfield on Wednesday and also the Cranbourne Cup last Sunday. McEvoy claimed The Everest on Redzel last Saturday, the Cranbourne Cup on Folkswood and the Blue Sapphire Stakes on Formality. He has nine rides with his best BONNEVAL (R8, No. 11) and FOXPLAY (R9, No. 1).

BIG HINT

Favourites have been to the fore in the last two Caulfield Cups with Mongolian Khan winning at $5 and last year Jameka at $4.20. In the past four years it has been the middle barriers which have dominated with the winners coming from barriers six, seven, 10 and 11. The winner of the Herbert Power Stakes, LORD FANDANGO (R8, NO. 17) doesn’t have history on his side as only two winners in the past 47 years have completed the double. The last winner was Master O’Rielly in 2007.

TRENDING

Punters are hoping to get off to a flying start with NAANTAL (R1, No. 11) who has been backed from $7.50 into $4.80. Newcastle mare DANISH TWIST (R6, No. 11) has been $7 into $4.40. In the final race Sydney mare NIETA (R10, No. 3) is the shortest priced favourite on the program having been backed from $2.70 into $2.30. The best longshot move has been for Sydney mare SHILLELAGH (R9, No. 13) who has been backed from $26 into $20.