Early Oil: The Valley best bets and race-by-race analysis, TAB market movers

With the AFL still yet to commit to a night Grand Final, the Moir Stakes meeting at The Valley remains the biggest show in town under lights this long weekend. Here’s everything you need for the huge night.

The Valley comes alive on AFL Grand Final eve with the club’s first night meeting of the year highlighted by the Group 1 Moir Stakes and a support card featuring four Group races.

The track is rated a Good 4 for the eight-race program with the rail in the true position.

Rain is expected on Friday afternoon, which could see the track downgraded ever so slightly.

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EXPERT TIPS: 10 YOUNG GUNS YOU NEED IN SUPERCOACH

BEST BET

EXHILARATES (R5, No. 1)

She’s in outstanding form and has outclassed her rivals to win her past two starts. She’s against similar company and should chalk up the hat-trick of wins.

VALUE BET

NOT ENOUGH EFFORT (R4, No. 5)

He won his first four starts in brilliant fashion before he suffered his first loss at Flemington last start when he pulled up with a mild bout of colic. Looks good each-way value.

SNEAKY CHANCE

WINTER BRIDE (R7, No. 13)

She’s won four of five first-up and her best form is when she can come from off the speed.

EARLY QUADDIE

1,3/1,2,3,7/3,5,8/1,5,6,7,8,9

$100 flexi for 69.44%

BIG 6

3,5,8/1,5,7,9/1,2,4/1,4,6,8/5,11/2,5,6

$100 flexi for 11.57%

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,2,4,5

Race 6: 1,2,4,5,6,8,9

Race 7: 1,2,3,5,8,11,13

Race 8: 2,5,6.

$100 flexi for 17%

WEEKEND BEST BETS: MORE THAN ONE GEM HERE

Who says winning isn’t fun? Moir Stakes night on Grand Final eve at The Valley always pulls a great crowd.

RACE 1: PLATE (1200M) 6.30PM

BARCALI (3) and KING OF HASTINGS (1) matched motors from the outset last star at Caulfield. Barcali had the outside draw and pushed forward to lead but couldn’t cross Kings Of Hastings who kicked up on his inside and took the spot back with 600m to go. Shouldn’t be much between them again. King Of Hastings might be better served being ridden just off the speed. He also likes it wet. ZOUSHACK (2) has fought hard to win his past two starts in the country. The Waterhouse/Bott trained FIERY RED (4) raced on the speed when successful last start at Warwick Farm. ALABAMA EXPRESS (6) won his debut at Mornington and then was beaten by an in-form older horse at Mornington.

SUGGESTED BET: KING OF HASTINGS THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: King Of Hastings $2.80-$2.90-$2.40 ($500 @ $2.90, $400 @ $2.90, $500 @ $2.70 TWICE, $400 @ $2.60, $400 @ $2.40); Zoushack $7.50-$6

RACE 2: STUTT STAKES (1600M) 7PM

POWER SCHEME (1) proved too strong when successful first-up over 1500m at track defeating stablemate CONQUEROR (3). From barrier two Mark Zahra should have him well placed throughout. THE HOLY ONE (4) worked in the early stages in that 1500m race to lead and although grabbed on turning he fought on for fourth. VEGAS KNIGHT (7) finished 11th in the Exford Plate at Flemington behind LEGIONNAIRE (2) but was beaten just under three lengths and finished well. He’s had one start over 1600m for a six length maiden win. Legionnaire is improving with racing and will be on the speed.

SUGGESTED BET: POWER SCHEME THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note

RACE 3: STOCKS STAKES (1600M) 7.30PM

Star mare PRINCESS JENNI (8) will strip fitter for first-up eighth in the Let’s Elope Stakes at Flemington where she was ridden closer than usual to suit the pattern of racing. She looked a chance on turning but went to the line in solid fashion to finish seventh behind Spanish Whisper. She’s had one start over 1600m here for a miraculous win at Group 3 level. MISS SISKA (3) resumed with excellent second to Spanish Whisper over 1400m at Flemington. Second-up last preparation she finished fourth at Group 1 level in the Coolmore Legacy beaten less than a length by Kenedna. SILENT ROAR (5) has won five of seven races over 1600m but this is her toughest test. Kiwi mare RONDINELLA (4) is a Group 1 placegetter who has won second-up. Another Kiwi mare CONSENSUS (1) returns to The Valley again where she won the autumn equivalent of this race the Sunline Stakes in March. On that occasion she defeated SPANISH REEF (2) who hasn’t fired in two runs back from a spell. She normally races well third up and likes this track.

SUGGESTED BET: PRINCESS JENNI THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Princess Jenni $5-$3.40 ($900 @ $4.50, $400 @ $4.50, $700 @ $4.20)

RACE 4: 55 SECOND CHALLENGE HT 1 (955M) 8PM

Hard to fault NOT ENOUGH EFFORT’S (5) form with four wins from his first four starts and then a last start sixth at Flemington in June behind Gytrash where he led and tired. He was subsequently found to have suffered a mild bout of colic. He loves it soft and should be able to get a good spot on the hectic speed. FINE DANE (7) took a long time to defeat ALUF (6) first-up at Sandown. He’s a winner over 1000m here. CELTIC BLAST (8) has won five of his 10 starts. He was a bit unlucky when second to ROCKET TOMMY (4) at Swan Hill at his last start. Sydney visitor ROYAL WITNESS (1) has won his past two starts over 1000m at Randwick and, two runs ago he defeated GOD OF THUNDER (9).

MAKAHU BOY (2) loves this track and distance.

SUGGESTED BET: NOT ENOUGH EFFORT EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: God Of Thunder $4.40-$3.30 ($500 @ $3.90, $400 @ $3.90, $400 @ $3.70). Deductions: Sam’s Image 6c Win 8c Place

Exhilarates salutes at The Valley in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes.

RACE 5: SCARBOROUGH STAKES (1200M) 8.30PM

EXHILARATES (1) has outclassed her opposition to win her past two starts at Caulfield and at this circuit at Group 3 level then at stakes level. She proved as a two-year-old that she can maintain her form through a preparation as she won the Magic Millions Classic at her fifth run. Query runner is former brilliant two-year-old LOVING GABY (2) who is resuming from a spell. She was close-up in Sydney’s two-year-old Triple Crown with a fourth in the Golden Slipper followed by seconds in the ATC Sires’ Produce Stakes and the Champagne Stakes. ABSOLUTE FLIRT (4) finished second to Exhilarates at Caulfield and then finished an unlucky second at Flemington. Sydney filly VILLAMI (5) was beaten in a photo at her last start by the boom filly Libertini. Blow-out runner is BACKPEDAL (14) who won her debut by eight lengths at Ballarat Synthetic.

SUGGESTED BET: EXHILARATES THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Absolute Flirt $7-$6; Villami $8.50-$4.20

RACE 6: LADBROKES JRA CUP (2040M) 9PM

MOSH MUSIC (8) is a Valley specialist and she showed with her win at Flemington second-up over 1700m that she’s in for her best campaign yet. She’s won seven out of 10 starts and is building up an outstanding record. SULLY (9) was unlucky in that race as he was held up for a run. KENTUCKY BREEZE (6) steps up in class but he’s in career best form and loves this track and distance, where he’s won his last two starts with authority. He can race handy to the speed and he’s got a fitness edge on his rivals. QAFILA (4) had a tough run in the Makybe Diva Stakes when she finished last but she endured a torrid run. Query runner is YUCATAN (1) who tired after settling midfield when first-up since the Melbourne Cup with a 12th in the Makybe Diva stakes. Step up to 2040m will suit but is he ready? Stablemates DOUGLAS MCCARTHUR (10) and MIDTERM (3) are also capable of improvement Kiwi mare GLORY DAYS (2) loves it wet. CAPTAIN COOK (5) is building to a win.

SUGGESTED BET: MOSH MUSIC EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note

Expect an improved performance from Sunlight.

RACE 7: MOIR STAKES (1000M) 9.30PM

They will scorch here with several extremely fast horses headed by BALL OF MUSCLE (1) and NATURE STRIP (5) doing battle. Surely this sets up for a horse off the speed and that should suit the brilliant mare SUNLIGHT (11). She didn’t fire first-up but that has happened in the past and she’s three from three second-up. At her last appearance at The Valley she won the William Reid Stakes. Nature Strip over-raced when he resumed and was disappointing, He likes The Valley and 1000m and he could get a good run behind Ball Of Muscle. WINTER BRIDE (13) has won four of her five first-up starts and will also like the speed. BONS AWAY (8) is a slight query at this level but he will love the fast speed and sprint home powerfully, High class gallopers TREKKING (2) and THE BOSTONIAN (3) are drawn out but that may play into their favour in the closing stages

SUGGESTED BET: SUNLIGHT THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Trekking $9-$6.50 ($300 @ $7, $350 @ $6.50, $200 e/w @ $6.50/$2.30); Nature Strip $2.50-$3.10-$2.90 ($2,000 @ $3.10, $2,000 @ $2.90, $1,000 @ $2.75, $400 @ $2.75)

Trekking wins the Stradbroke Handicap in June.

RACE 8: BENCHMARK 84 (1200M) 10PM

Tassie star MANDELA EFFECT (6) has a great record with eight wins from 15 starts and has won three of five first-up. He’s demonstrated on occasions he’s above average and he can handle wet tracks. TAVISAN (2) worked hard last start to lead when he weakened to finish seventh behind The Inevitable. He has to overcome a wide barrier this time but he usually races well this track and distance. USAIN BOWLER (5) was outclassed down the straight when 12th behind Zoutori but was only beaten four lengths, He’s also been racing well this track and distance with a win and a third here at his two previous runs. Adelaide sprinter VIEIRA (6) chased home three smart horses at his last start in Adelaide. Another Adelaide sprinter COLUMBIA (13) ran well when fourth here behind Usuain Bowler.

SUGGESTED BET: MANDELA EFFECT THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note