Early Oil: Chris Vernuccio looks at the tricky Caulfield program

Tasmanian racehorses have stamped themselves as a force to be reckoned with in recent months, none more so than filly Mystic Journey, and form analyst Chris Vernuccio expects the trend to continue.

Mr Quickie (nearest) salutes on Pakenham Cup Race Day. Picture: AAP

Tasmanian racehorses have stamped themselves as a force to be reckoned with in recent months, none more so than filly Mystic Journey, and form analyst Chris Vernuccio expects the trend to continue.

The Nooch has turned to Tasmanian pair Lady Pluck and Hellova Street on Saturday to maintain to the extraordinary winning strike-rate from runners from the island state.

Three-year-old filly Lady Pluck returns to Victoria on the back of a dominant three-length win at Launceston, while veteran miler Hellova Street hasn’t finished out of the first two placings in his past five starts.

The Nooch says both look great chances, but what’s more enticing is they offer plenty of value in early markets.

THE CHAMPIONSHIPS: FORM AND BEST BETS

WONDER RACE: WINX FAVOURITE TO BEAT BEST

BEST BET

LADY PLUCK (Race 5, No. 5)

VALUE BET

HELLOVA STREET (Race 8, No. 10)

EARLY QUADDIE

2,6,9,10,15/1,2,5,7,/1,4/3,4,5,6

$100 flexi for 62.50 per cent

BIG6

1/5/2,5,8/1,2,9/1,5,14/2,7,13,14

$100 flexi for 92.59 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 2,5,8,10

Race 7: 1,2,9

Race 8: 1,5,14

Race 9: 2,7,13,14

$100 flexi for 69.44 per cent

RACE 1 (12.25PM): THOMAS NORTH HANDICAP (1100m)

A low confidence betting race for two-year-olds with six first starters among the 10 runners. PEAK (6) could be the best of the debutants after winning a Flemington jumpout under a tight hold in quick time. LIL’ ANGEL (10) also looked good in her trial. Filly MEUSE (7) led all the way for an emphatic win at Bendigo. The overall time was slow but she ran the second fastest last 200m of the day off a moderate early speed. ORDER OF VALOUR (2) also won on debut but the form out of that race is still inconclusive.

BET: MEUSE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note.

RACE 2 (1PM): SELANGOR TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1600m)

DANON ROMAN (2) made a strong return at Sandown Hillside over an unsuitable distance. He should improve off that run after drifting back from the wide barrier and increased his speed significantly between the 600m and 400m before a drop off in the last 200m. INTUERI (9) has had a freshen up after a tough run at the Valley where he was challenged for the lead then taken on again mid-race but hung on for second. I GOT YOU (2) showed intent from the wide gate at Geelong but the race didn’t unfold his way. MR RECKLESS (6) ran well in his first Australian run but probably wants further.

BET: DANON ROMAN EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 10 — I Got You $7.50-$7 ($500 @ $7)

15 — Heir To The Throne $8-$6.50

RACE 3 (1.35PM): POLYTRACK HANDICAP (1600m)

Another race I’m not confident about. PURE SCOT (1) has belied her starting price profile in her past two starts, winning a BM84 at Flemington before a third-place finish at the same track in the Group 3 Matron Stakes. She finished ahead of THINK BLEUE (2) in the Matron but is double the odds here. Think Bleue did hit a flat spot but Pure Scot was stronger to the line. REMEMBER THE NAME (7) was a beaten favourite behind Pure Scot and is becoming a non-winner. LA TIGERESA (5) had her first attempt at 1600m in the Group 2 Sunline Stakes. This will be easier but her last 200m was a little soft.

BET: PURE SCOT EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 2 — Think Bleue $3.80-$3.40 ($1,250 @ $3.80, $410 @ $3.60)

Mr Quickie makes it seven straight wins on Mornington Cup Day. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 4 (2.15PM): TILE IMPORTER HANDICAP (1600m)

South Australian Derby aspirant MR QUICKIE (1) is chasing a seventh straight win, and eighth in 10 starts. The most recent at Mornington was arguably his most impressive where he ran the last 600m in splits of 11.41sec, 11.42 and 11.41. That day he vanquished main rivals STAROUZ (3) and STAR MISSILE (4) by more than four lengths, although Star Missile did find trouble in the straight. The only concern for Mr Quickie is staying at 1600m. WINNING PARTNER (2) also has form behind Mr Quickie but didn’t get clear running at Flemington.

BET: MR QUICKIE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 1 — Mr Quickie $3-$2.10 ($1500 @ $3, $500 @ $3, $1000 @ $2.90, $2,500 @ $2.50, $300 @ $2.50, $3500 @ $2.30, $2000 @ $2.20, $1000 @ $2.20, $500 @ $2.20 TWICE, $400 @ $2.10, $300 @ $2.10)

Lady Pluck and Siggy Carr cruise to an effortless win in the 3YO Classic in Launceston.

RACE 5 (2.55PM) WALK FOR PHIL HANDICAP (1100M)

Tasmanian filly LADY PLUCK (5) is unbeaten in two runs this campaign and coming off an effortless three-length win at Launceston. Last spring she finished third in a Listed race at Flemington behind Smart Melody at $71. NEWS GIRL (3) has had a short break following a consistent summer campaign where she was competitive at Group level after winning in a BM58. APERITIF (4) and THINE IS THE POWER (6) have crossed paths a couple of times and there’s not a lot between them. TELL ME (2) and FIDELIA (10) are other hopes.

BET: LADY PLUCK WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 2 — Tell Me $9.50-$8

3 — News Girl $9.50-$7.50 ($200 @ $9.50)

5 — Lady Pluck $4.60-$3.80 ($2,500 @ $4.60, $400 @ $4.40)

RACE 6 (3.35PM): HYDERABAD R.C HANDICAP (1100m)

LEATHER’N’LACE (8) chased some top-class mares in the spring but her racing style counts against her. She’s certain to ridden back from the outside draw first-up. However, her main challengers have knocks on them. BELWAZI (2) has been close in her past two runs but will be tested at 1100m. FLYING KRUPT (5) and MAMZELLE TESS (4) are both dropping back in distance. NON PAEAR (10) has been racing consistently but steps up in grade. FUHRYK (1) was on the wrong side of the Flemington straight.

BET: LEATHER’N’LACE EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 8 — Leather’n’lace $3.60 unchanged ($3,500 @ $3.60, $500 @ $3.60)

RACE 7 (4.15PM) LADBROKES HANDICAP (1200m)

The scratching of BRAVE SONG (11) opens the race up for SUPERHARD (3). He will prefer the 1200m, where he can build up to top speed, after the Valley 955m was too sharp for him. He clocked the fastest last 800m, 600m, 400m and 200m over the 1000m when first-up at Flemington. ASHLOR (2) nosed out Widgee Turf at Wangaratta and that form is strong, with Widgee Turf winning at Flemington and STREETS OF AVALON (1) coming out of that race to win at Mornington. BANDIPUR (8), MASTERING (12) and SPIRIT OF AQUADA (13) are chances for the minor placings.

BET: SUPERHARD EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 3 — Brave Song $6.50-$5 ($400 @ $6.50)

8 — Bandipur $13-$11

13 — Spirit Of Aquada $10-$9 ($300 @ $10, $1,000 @ $9.50)

Deductions: Blaze Forth 5c Win 5c Place

Jason Maskiell gives the No. 1 signal as Hellova Street registers a third Mowbray Stakes win to push his earnings beyond $1 million.

RACE 8 (4:55PM): LADBROKES ANNIVERSARY VASE (1400m)

Tough Tasmanian galloper HELLOVA STREET (1) was gallant at Flemington when run down by Widgee Turf over the 1400m. He’ll be hard to run down again. SNIPPETS LAND (5) brings great form from NSW. His win at Canberra showed his excellent first-up return behind Dreamforce at Group 3 level was no fluke. HEPTAGON (14) loves 1400m with four wins from eight attempts, including a dominant win in the Echuca Cup. Dropping back to 1400m will help NAANTALI (13). MANOLO BLAHNIQ (9) will be better suited at this trip but he’ll need luck.

BET: HELLOVA STREET EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 14 — Heptagon $4.60-$4 ($1000 @ $4.60, $520 @ $4.40, $300 @ $4.40, $3,000 @ $4.20)

15 — Don’t Give A Damn $16-$8.50

Deductions: Captain Cook 3c Win 3c Place

RACE 9 (5.30PM): LE PINE FUNERALS HANDICAP (2000m)

Four runners are vying for favouritism — ODEON (2), OUR LIBRETTO, THUNDER CLOUD (13) and VALAC (14). Giving Thunder Cloud one more chance. He’s lost his past two starts as favourite or near-favourite but the prospect of a stronger tempo is in his favour. Valac beat Thunder Cloud at Flemington and the key for him is whether he can control the speed again. Odeon is backing up to a more suitable distance and Our Libretto wasn’t suited by a slowly run 1600m at the Valley. Taking on SHEEZDASHING (9) as a winning prospect.

BET: THUNDER CLOUD EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 2 — Odeon $10-$6.50 ($500 @ $8, $600 @ $7.50)