Early Oil: Caulfield best bets, race-by-race analysis with Michael Manley

Leading Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley believes he can strike paydirt at Caulfield when Clinton McDonald’s progressive mare Diamond Effort steps out. BEST BETS, RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS

Talented mare Diamond Effort resumed with an excellent run when second at Caulfield behind Pippie where she finished off strongly two weeks ago, says form analyst Michael Manley.

On that occasion Diamond effort drew out, but Manley says with the inside draw and Damien Oliver staying on, she should prove hard to beat.

BEST BET

DIAMOND EFFORT (R2, No. 16)

VALUE BET

GUIZOT (R4, No. 8)

EARLY QUADDIE

12,16/2,4,5/3,6,8,14/1,2,3,4,5,7,9

$100 flexi for 59.72%

BIG6

3,8,14/1,3,4,5,9/1,4/9,11,13/1,9,11/2,4,14,18

$100 flexi for 9.25%

QUADDIE

Race 6: 1,4

Race 7: 9,11,13

Race 8: 1,5,6,9,11

Race 9: 1,2,4,9,14,18

$100 flexi for 55.55%

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WEEKEND BEST BETS: WHO TO BACK AT THE TRACK

RACE 1: HANDICAP (2400M) 12.25PM

JINDA (6) has raced on the speed to win her past two starts on heavy tracks at Sandown Hillside and then at Flemington. She won’t have her favoured conditions but she’s going to have a fitness edge on a bunch of imported stayers who are stepping out in distance. Also she will carry only 52kgs after the claim for Teo Nugent. ALFARRIS (3) is a smart stayer who is tackling 2400m second-up. He won third-up over 2400m at Caulfield in May. He ran a sound fourth in the Andrew Ramsden Stakes at his next start in a good class race. Team Williams has EXEMPLAR (5) and US ARMY RANGER (2) who will appreciate the extra ground. CEDAR GRANDE (7) was held up for a run when third at The Valley last week behind Dabiyr. NAVAL WARFARE (1) has the talent to win.

SUGGESTED BET: JINDA OR ALFARRIS

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note

RACE 2: HANDICAP (1200M) 1PM

Hard to go past DIAMOND EFFORT (1). She resumed from a spell with a fast finishing second to the flying Pippie which was a great run as she was trapped wide throughout from her outside draw. From barrier one Damien Oliver should lead or put her in the box seat. Second-up last time in she won by six lengths at Cranbourne. Team Hawkes’ DAWN DAWN (12) resumed from a spell with a sound finishing burst to finish second at Rosehill. BRAVA TANGO (1) found his best form at the end of last campaign. His class will carry him a long way. First-up last time in he finished second to the brilliant Tin Hat at Sandown Lakesidee. MASTERING (4) races well fresh and likes Caulfield. BRYAN (7) won this race last year.

SUGGESTED BET: DIAMOND EFFORT THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Diamond Effort $5-$3.50-$3.40 ($300 @ $4, $367 @ $3.70, $381 @ $3.60, $1,000 @ $3.50, $450 @ $3.50, $300 @ $3.50)

Damien Oliver and My Pendant wins at Flemington on August 10.

RACE 3: HANDICAP (1400M) 1.25PM

MY PENDANT (4) is a mare going places. She’s had eight starts for four wins and three seconds and her only failure came after she had a torrid run in the Group 3 Vanity Stakes. Two starts ago she was beaten by a smart mare in Sylvia’s Mother at Flemington. She looked beaten last start at the same track when she finished strongly off a slow tempo on a heavy track to defeat Special Diva over 1400m at Flemington. SHOKORA (5) finished third in that race and drops five kilos from 57kg to 52kg after in-form Lachlan King’s claim and meets the winner 3.5kg better. HAY NOW (7) finished fourth in that race. She’ll lead from her inside draw and will run a race at odds. MUSIC BAY (2) is a classy mare and she resumes after a Group 2 Adelaide win.

SUGGESTED BET: MY PENDANT THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note

RACE 4: HEATHERLIE STAKES (1700M) 2.10PM

This shapes as a messy race with queries on where the speed will come from and a host of stayers early in their preparation. Best option might be the horse who is fit and rarely runs a poor race in track and distance specialist GUIZOT (8). He was awkwardly placed last start at Caulfield but still managed to sprint home to win over 1600m. He’s had six starts at Caulfield now for three wins, two seconds and a third. BENITOITE (14) has won five of seven and she rallied hard to win against her own sex last start. CAPTAIN COOK (6) covered ground at his Australian debut in that race and ran home strongly. He’s got a good second-up record. STEEL PRINCE (3) won five from five last preparation and secured a Melbourne Cup start with his win in the Andrew Ramsden. He’s the class runner but knowing his goal is two months away the query will be how fit he is. The Mornington Cup quinella of SELF SENSE (4) and TARQUIN (10) will be better suited on a firmer surface. SEMARI (9) is two from two second up.

SUGGESTED BET: GUIZOT EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note

RACE 5: H.D.F. MCNEIL STAKES (1200M) 2.50PM

PEIDRA (5) defeated the in-form Condo’s Express to win his debut at Sale and followed that with a gutsy win over Knock Knock at Sandown Lakeside on a soft 6 track after being held up. He’ll take race fitness into this which might be his advantage over a stack of potential top liners. Anthony Freedman’s two colts KING OF HASTINGS (3) and SUPER SETH (4) have both won at this track and distance and both are resuming after two wins and a placing at their first preparation. MISSILE MANTRA (9) is undefeated and she flew home to win her last start which was at this track and distance. SHOTMAKER (7) ran a great second at his debut behind I Am Immortal in the Blue Diamond Prelude and then had no luck in the Blue Diamond. DUBIOUS (1) wasn’t suited by soft track and was also slow to begin when he finished fourth behind the brilliant Bivouac. Blinkers go on again. In the same race SEBRAKATE (2) led and although no match for Bivoauc held on for second.

SUGGESTED BET: PEIDRA EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Super Seth $5-$3.90 ($500 @ $5, $300 @ $4.20, $1000 @ $3.90)

Damian Oliver rides Vega Magic to victory in the 2018 Bletchingly Stakes.

RACE 6: THE HEATH (1100M) 3.30PM

They will scorch along here with two of the fastest horses around BALL OF MUSCLE (1) and VEGA MAGIC (4) going head to head. Both love Caulfield. It will be a battle of tactics as if they take each other on they could set it up for a stalker. Vega Magic has barrier one and Damien Oliver on. He’s had four starts at Caulfield for three wins and a second. Looked awesome winning recent Flemington jump-out and blinkers go back on. Sydney veteran BALL OF MUSCLE (1) has won his past two starts at Caulfield over this distance winning this race last year and then the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes. He has to carry 59kg to Vega Magic’s 57kg under the bizarre conditions attached to this race. GYTRASH (3) is a promising galloper but doubt he can give Vega Magic a kilogram. Best blow-out is MALAGUERRA (5) who is now with Lindsey Smith. He’s won five from eight first-up.

SUGGESTED BET: VEGA MAGIC THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ball Of Muscle $3.40-$4.20; Vega Magic $2.90-$2.20 ($350 @ $2.90, $1,171 @ $2.70, $533 @ $2.70, $500 @ $2.40 TWICE, $400 @ $2.40, $2,000 @ $2.30, $500 @ $2.30, $500 @ $2.25, $300 @ $2.20)

RACE 7: COCKRAM STAKES (1200M) 4.10PM

PIPPIE (13) has destroyed her rivals with her superior speed at her past two starts winning by three lengths and a quarter lengths at Doomben and then last start at Caulfield by three lengths. She should again dominate this race with her pace and she’s got the advantage of being up and running. She will also carry the minimum weight of 55kgs. Team Hawkes’ mare SYLVIA’S MOTHER (11) took her record to five wins from eight start when she outclassed her rivals to win at Flemington. Second and third placegetters behind her subsequently also won at Flemington. Brilliant mare FIDELIA (9) has won five out of nine. She’ll get back but if they are heading off the fence she’ll take some holding out. Top class mare AMPHRITITE (1) flies fresh and SPANISH WHISPER (2) should have a huge campaign but both have to give weight to the aforementioned mares.

SUGGESTED BET: PIPPIE THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pippie $3.70-$3 ($700 @ $3.60, $500 @ $3.60, $500 @ $3.40, $2000 @ $3, $400 @ $3, $391 @ $3, $300 @ $3 MULTIPLE TIMES)

Alizee takes out the Futurity Stakes at Caulfield in February.

RACE 8: MEMSIE STAKES (1400M) 4.50PM

The race should set up well for ALIZEE (11) with the likely speed. She scraped in when first-up winner in the Group 2 Missile Stakes at Rosehill but wasn’t suited by a lack of speed. At her last appearance at Caulfield she won the Futurity Stakes.

BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (9) used his brilliant speed to win the Regal Roller Stakes last start and earn a shot at this race. He’s won his last six and seems to be getting better every start. He’s up in weight and class but he’s got a fitness edge and will use his speed to break-up his rivals. Mr dependable HARTNELL (1) took his record to five starts this track and distance for two wins, a second and two thirds when he chased home Mystic Journey into third place in the Lawrence Stakes. From barrier one he’s sure to be in the finish.

HUMIDOR (3) swooped home to win this race last year when second-up. He’s first up from 44 weeks off. SCALES OF JUSTICE (5) bolted in with the Bletchingly Stakes first-up but was outsprinted by a possible star in Dalasan in Adelaide last start. CLIFF’S EDGE (6) looked home in the Lawrence Stakes but was run down by super mare Mystic Journey and he’ll strip fitter and take catching again.

SUGGESTED BET: ALIZEE THE WIN.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Scales Of Justice $6.50-$5; Cliff’s Edge $10-$9 ($700 @ $9.50);

Alizee $2.80-$3.40-$3.30 ($300 @ $3.40, $800 @ $3.30, $500 @ $3.30 TWICE, $400 @ $3.30)

RACE 9: HANDICAP (1400M) 5.15PM

The race will hinge on whether the second emergency AGE OF CHIVALRY (18) can get into the field. He loves 1400m and he controlled the race from the front when he won second up. On that occasion he defeated ROX THE CASTLE (19). ANTAH (14) resumed with a nice run when first-up fifth behind Begood Toya Mother. This is easier and he’s better suited over 1400m. QAFILA (4) resumes after winning the South Australian Derby. She’s versatile and was first-up winner in that campaign at Caulfield. ICONOCLASM (2) wasn’t suited by a heavy track when he resumed at Flemington over 1200m. He’s a 1400m specialist and he loves this track. NIGHT’S WATCH (1) is the class act resuming.

SUGGESTED BET: AGE OF CHIVALRY THE WIN.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Nights Watch $6-$4.80 ($500 @ $6, $400 @ $6, $300 @ $6, $500 @ $5)