Early Oil: Best bets and race-by-analysis for Flemington twilight meeting
Leading form analyst Michael Manley says the Flemington twilight meeting presents punters with a great opportunity to bag a few winners and has a few tasty options on the cooker. BEST BETS, ANALYSIS
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Form analyst Michael Manley is banking on Great Duchess maintaining her recent form and says Saturday’s race sets up nicely for her.
Manley says she’s a Flemington winner and can add chalk up another success at headquarters.
Check out what else he likes at the twilight meeting.
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BEST BET
GREAT DUCHESS (R2, No. 4)
VALUE BET
REMASTERED (R8, No. 15)
EARLY QUADDIE
2,4,5,6/4,8/1,2,7/1,2,3,5
$100 flexi for 104.16%
BIG6
1,7/2,3/11,13/1,2,4,7/9,14,15/4,14
$100 flexi for 52.08%
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1,2,4,5,7,8,11,13
Race 7: 1,2,4,7
Race 8: 1,2,5,9,10,14,15
Race 9: 4,14
$100 flexi for 22.32%
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RACE 1: 3.10PM HCP (1100M)
Massive debut from AVENUE OF PLEASURE (4) at The Valley on December 6. She was slow to begin and was then held up until the final 150m when she charged home for third behind Diamondesque and Chicamo. She produced the third fastest last 200m for the night. AMATEURISH (3) was far from disgraced at her debut this track and distance with close-up fifth behind A Beautiful Night and she’ll be better for the experience and blinkers go on first time. BETTER KICK (1) showed ability when close-up in Werribee trial and Oliver will ride. PERSONAL (6) sat wide at her debut when second to Fresh at Geelong. Adelaide trainer Chris Bieg won this race last year with Free Of Debt and has first starter CHOSEN BLONDE (8) this year.
SUGGESTED BET: AVENUE OF PLEASURE THE WIN
TAB market movers: Better Kick $9-$4.80 ($450 @ $8, $500 @ $6.50 TWICE, $1,500 @ $6, $750 @ $4.80)
RACE 2: 3.50PM HCP (1720M)
The three top-weights are in good form and like to lead – KARDASHING (1), PIERLESS (2) and CATCHING BEAMS (3), GREAT DUCHESS (4) should be ready to win and she can take a drop on them. Finished off nicely at Caulfield to finish third behind Conqueror over 1400m last start. Two starts ago she finished fourth over 1600m at Flemington behind Thousand Wishes in a race RED HEELER (6) finished second in. That mare dropped back to 1400m last week and finished third behind Power Dream. RUBY SKYE (5) races well at Flemington. Just failed to defeat Heavenly Emperor last start over 1600m. RADIANT WARRIOR (7) hasn’t had much luck in recent starts.
SUGGESTED BET: GREAT DUCHESS WIN
TAB market movers: Red Heeler $3.40-$2.90 ($250 x $750 e/w @ $3.40/$1.50, $360 @ $3.10, $500 @ $3, $500 @ $2.90, $1,180 @ $2.90)
RACE 3: 4.30PM HCP (1100M)
BANQUO (4) resumes from a fresh-up. He made great progress last spring which culminated in a Stakes win over 1400m at the Flemington spring carnival and a close-up fourth in the Sandown Guineas behind Pretty Brazen. He was given an easy time in a recent Werribee jump-out. DYNAMIC DUO (8) is a maiden but has a lot of upside. He finished off strongly at his debut at Echuca behind Star Surprise and resumed with a fast finishing second at Mornington where he produced the fastest last 200m and 400m for the meeting. CONDO’S EXPRESS (1) and ALABAMA EXPRESS (2) are classy gallopers who won stakes races during spring. SANSOM (3) was won four of his seven starts.
SUGGESTED BET: BANQUO THE WIN
TAB market movers: Condo’s Express $2.60-$3.10; Dynamic Duo $12-$13-$6.50 ($500 @ $13, $500 @ $12)
RACE 4: 5.10PM HCP (2000M)
BLOSSOM ON SNOW (1) made it two from two when a comfortable all the way winner at Caulfield on December 18? On that occasion she was wayward in the closing stages. She defeated RAPID ROMANCE (7) who since ran on nicely for second behind Cassius over 1600m at The Valley. She shapes as if 2000m will suit her to a tee. ROGUES POINT (2) was just beaten by Ocean Heart last start at Sandown over 1600m and she had finished third behind Blossom On Snow and Rapid Romance at Caulfield. MOUNT MADEIRA (6) made ground for second behind the smart older horse Iowa Hawkeye at Geelong last start over 1755m and 2000m should suit.
SUGGESTED BET: RAPID ROMANCE EACH-WAY
TAB market movers: Blossom On Snow $2.90-$2.40 ($500 @ $2.70, $500 @ $2.60, $1000 @ $2.50, $400 @ $2.40)
RACE 5: 5.50PM KENSINGTON STAKES (1000M)
Query horse is former top Sydney two-year-old colt TIME TO REIGN (3) who hasn’t started since finishing fifth in the Golden Slipper. He won the Group 2 Silver Slipper Stakes last February. His trainer Gary Portelli has given him a long build up for his return and he won his last trial by 9.5 lengths. He has Oliver on to guide him down the straight. BOLD STAR (2) is racing well down the straight. He won a Benchmark 84 this track and distance before he finished second in the Standish Handicap behind the in-form Halvorsen last start over 1200m. Another three-year-old colt SARTORIAL SPLENDOUR (5) was a Group 3 winner last spring. He’s quick. ALL TOO ROYAL (1) has a great strike rate and won Christmas Stakes easily first-up at Caulfield.
SUGGESTED BET: TIME TO REIGN THE WIN
TAB market movers: All Too Royal $3.60-$2.90 ($1,500 @ $3.60, $500 @ $3.20, $500 @ $2.90, $300 @ $2.90)
RACE 6: 6.30PM HCP (1400M)
Former Irish galloper WENTWOOD (11) makes his Australian and his trainer Maddie Raymond also has her first runner. He showed ability in Ireland which included a win over Constantinople and he even went to San Francisco to run in a Group 3 Mile race. He looks ready to go judging by recent runaway Stawell jump-out win. VONGOLE (13) didn’t have a lot of luck last start at Caulfield as he ws held up for a run before finishing on strongly to finish fourth behind TURN THE TIDE (4) who subsequently finished fifth behind Conqueror also over 1400m at that track. REFLECTIVITY (2) has been racing well in Sydney and he’ll go forward and give a great sight. Under-rated mare MAMZELLE TESS (1) tried hard when she finished third behind the in-form Yulong January this track and distance. TIGGER (7) is racing well and FABRIC (8) has the talent to be in the finish.
SUGGESTED BET: WENTWOOD EACH-WAY
TAB market movers: Wentwood $8-$4.80 ($300 @ $7, $500 @ $6.50, $1000 @ $2 PLACE)
RACE 7: 7PM HCP (2520M)
Another small but open race with every horse having claims. THE LORD MAYOR (1) fought hard to win over 2000m here last week. He’s always shown staying talent. EL DON (2) broke through for a narrow but well deserved win in the Bagot Handicap. He’s been racing well and the only horses who had beaten him in at his three previous starts were Secret Blaze, Defibrillate and Creedence. At his last start he got up in the final stride to defeat HIGH BRIDGE (4). YULONG RISING (7) is improving with racing. NAVAL WARFARE (5) and WALL OF FIRE (3) can also win.
SUGGESTED BET: THE LORD MAYOR THE WIN
TAB market movers: No bets or movements of note
RACE 8: 7.30PM HCP (1200M)
Another open race but this time a larger field. REMASTERED (15) won well this track and distance on January 1 where he sat wide and powered home over the top of his rivals. He’s drawn out again. MONTENEGRO MAN (14) is racing well. He also won in fine style at Caulfield last start where he took a sit off the speed and then out sprinted his rivals. Another last start winner this track and distance CHICAGO CUB (9) is also won of the leading chances. OUR CAMPANA (5) is aiming for a hat-trick of wins after victories over 1100m at Caulfield last start where she defeated FLYING KRUPT 96) at and Flemington. CLARICE CLIFFS (10) is fitter for one run back from a spell. JUST HIFALUTIN (2) won this race last year. MAN OF HIS WORD’s (1) has run well at his two runs in this time in.
SUGGESTED BET: REMASTERED EACH-WAY
TAB market movers: Just Hifalutin $15-$9.50 ($500 @ $10, $300 @ $10); Clarice Cliffs $5-$4
RACE 9: 8PM HCP (1800M)
SKELM (4) has hit a purple patch. He’s produced quick closing sectionals to win his past two starts at Sandown and at Caulfield. Last start at Caulfield he produced the fourth fastest last 200m for the meeting. He’s drawn the outside barrier but he’ll settle back anyway. DONNDUBHAN (10) won over 1800m at Caulfield two starts ago and then led and tired when fourth behind Skelm. BILL THE BEE (14) has the race under control at The Valley last 1600m a long way from home. 1800m should suit even better. MALISEET (8) led throughout to win this track and distance on January 1 where he just held off IGNITER (15).
SUGGESTED BET: SKELM EACH-WAY
TAB market movers: Bill The Bee $4.60-$3.50
FOUR $50 BETS WITH MICHAEL MANLEY
RACE 2
DONATE TO FOODBANK VICTORIA HANDICAP (1720M)
$50 WIN ON GREAT DUCHESS (4) AT $4
GREAT DUCHESS should be ready to win after four runs back from a spell. She’s been racing consistently. Last start over 1400mat Caulfield she finished off well for third behind Conqueror. Before that she finished a close-up fourth at Flemington in a similar field. There are three horses who like to roll forward so she should be able to get a good spot behind them.
RACE 3
DONATE TO SALVATION ARMY HANDICAP (1100M)
$50 WIN BANQUO (4) AT $3.60
BANQUO emerged as a classy galloper last spring for trainer Danny O’Brien. He recently jumped out at Werribee against some good horses and coasted around with Damien Oliver in the saddle. The champion rides him and from barrier seven he’ll be able to settle him off the likely fast pace and charge home.
RACE 8
THANK YOU FIREFIGHTERS BENCHMARK 84 (1200M)
$25 EACH-WAY REMASTERED (15) AT $9.50/$3.20
Sat back and powered home close to the outside rail to win this track and distance on January 1. He’s drawn barrier 15 s oBeau Mertens won’t be changing the successful tactics. This is harder but he’s always shown nice promise and he’ll carry 54kgs. Looks a great each-way chance.
RACE 9
THANK YOU VOLUNTEERS BENCHMARK 70 (1800M)
$25 EACH-WAY SKELM (4) AT $6/$2.30
He’s racing in great fashion sprinting home to win his last two starts at Sandown and then at Caulfield where he produced the fourth fastest last 200m for the meeting. He’s drawn out but he’ll go back anyway. Flemington should suit his style of racing.
QUADZILLA
LEG 1: RACE 6
Load up the First Leg. Former Irish galloper WENTWOOD (11) should be an automatic inclusion as he could be a level above his rivals. VONGOLE (13) was unlucky at Caulfield last start when fourth in a race TURN THE TIDE (4) finished fifth. MAMZELLETESS (1) is under-rated. REFLECTIVITY (2) is racing well in Sydney and will push forward. NEVER AGAIN (4), TIGGER (7) and FABRIC (8) should be included.
First Leg: 1,2,4,5,7,8,11,13
LEG 2: RACE 7
Only eight runners but it’s an open race so let’s take half the field. Last Saturday’s Flemington winner THE LORD MAYOR (1) fought hard to win over 2000m and should run out the 2520m. EL DON (2) won the Bagot Handicap narrowly from HIGH BRIDGE (4)and both need to be included. Craig Williams rides improving stayer YULONG RISING (7).
Second Leg: 1,2,4,7
LEG 3: RACE 8
Another extremely open race, this time down the straight six. Last start winners this track and distance. CHICAGO CUB (9) and REMASTERED (15) are must haves as is impressive last start Caulfield winner MONTENEGRO MAN (14). OUR CAMPANA (5) is aiming for a hat-trick of wins and she defeated FLYING KRUPT (6) last start at Caulfield. JUST HIFALUTIN (2) won this race last year and All-Star Mile aspirant MAN OF HIS WORD (1) is racing well.
Third Leg: 1,2,5,9,10,14,15
LEG 4: RACE 9
Going to come home with only two horses and they are the in-form pair of SKELM (4) and BILL THE BEE (14). Skelm is in career best form and he has unleashed fast closing sectionals to win his past two starts at Sandown and then at Caulfield. Bill The Bee controlled the race on the speed at The Valley last start over 1600m. He’s drawn barrier two and Mark Zahra should be able to put him in a great position.
Fourth Leg: 4,14
FIRST LEG: 1,2,4,5,7,8,11,13
SECOND LEG: 1,2,4,7
THIRD LEG: 1,2,5,9,10,14,15
FOURTH LEG: 4,14
$100 flexi for 22.32%
SKINNY QUADDIE
Former Irish galloper WENTWOOD (11) and VONGOLE (13) can kick off the Skinny Quaddie. In the second leg, take THE LORD MAYOR (1), EL DON (2) and HIGH BRIDGE (4). In the third leg take the last start winners down in the weights, MONTENEGRO MAN (14)and REMASTERED (15). Stick with the same pair of SKELM (4) and BILL THE BEE (14).
FIRST LEG: 11,13
SECOND LEG: 1,2,4
THIRD LEG: 14,15
FOURTH LEG: 4,14
$25 flexi for 104.16%