Early Oil: Best bets, analysis for Caulfield’s Bletchingly Stakes Day

Winner at track. Tick. Loves the wet. Tick. Stable in form. Tick. Same weight as previous win. Tick. Form analyst Michael Manley makes a good case for his best bet at Caulfield. RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS

Tavirun has bolted in at his last two starts at Caulfield on wet tracks, with leading Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley confident the three-year-old can win again.

Manley says the wet conditions play heavily in Tavirun’s favour and the 2400m shouldn’t stop him either.

CAULFIELD

Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 6m entire track. Weather: Rain.

BEST BET

TAVIRUN (R5, No. 2)

VALUE BET

TAKSU (R6, No. 4)

EARLY QUADDIE

3,4,7/3,5,7,11,14/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,9

$100 flexi for 41%

BIG6

1,2/2/2,3,4,7,8,9/1,2,5,6/2,6/2,5

$100 flexi for 62%

QUADDIE

Race 6: 3,4,7,8,9

Race 7: 1,2,5,6

Race 8: 2,6

Race 9: 2,3,5,6

$100 flexi for 62.5%

WEEKEND BEST BETS: WHO TO BACK AT THE TRACK

QUINNY’S TIPS: WHY JUNGLE DRUMS ARE BEATING

RACE 1: 11.55AM STEPH HUNTER VOBIS GOLD INGOT (1400M)

SPIRIT MEDIUM (7) is improving with every start. She followed her second in the Elvstroem Classic with a strong on speed win at Bendigo last start where she sat second and kicked clear early in the straight. Expect Craig Williams to employ similar tactics. CAN’T BE DONE (1) is smart youngster. Battled on well with big weight when second over 1200m here to Star Surprise. He’s had four starts for two wins and two seconds and from barrier one he’ll be in the firing line throughout. PARMIE (8) is a talented filly who charged over the top of a smart filly in Presently over 1400m at Sandown Hillside last start. I AM ELOQUENT (9) revelled in the heavy conditions to win at Geelong last start.

Suggested bet: Spirit Of Medium the win

TAB market mover: Spirit Medium $5.50-$4.20 ($450 @ $4.40, $400 @ $4.40)

RACE 2: 12.30PM Le Pine Funerals Handicap (1100M)

Tasmanian mare I REMEMBER YOU (4) resumes after a brilliant first campaign for Scott Brunton where she won three of four starts and she finished an unlucky second at her only defeat which was behind Twitchy Frank. I AM QUEEN (7) returned to her best with easy on speed win at Bendigo last start where she took over a long way out on a heavy track. MISS IANO (3) likes this track with a win two starts ago and then a close-up fourth over 1200m here. She loves it wet. JORDA (2) will find this easier than her last start 10th behind Malibu Style at Flemington. MISS NORWAY (1) wasn’t that far off Oak Door at Group 3 level last start.

Suggested bet: I Remember You the win

TAB market mover: Miss Norway $4.80-$3.90; I Remember You $6-$4.60

RACE 3: 1.05PM LADBROKES ODDS BOOST HANDICAP (1600M)

Pretty solid on speed effort from SATORI (7) at his last start when he finished third here in this class over this distance. He stuck to his task and that was his first run over 1400m. In-form apprentice Teo Nugent will take three kilos off. BALLET MASTER (11) has four seconds and a third from his past five starts including last start second in that same race Satori finished third behind Special Diva. Oliver goes on. LAURE ME IN (3) made up good ground in the same race to finish fifth. ROYAL ORDER (5) has been freshened since he finished fourth in the Winter Championship Final behind Reykjavik. He’ll find this easier and likes the wet but drops back in distance from 1600m to 1400m. The wetter the better for CAMPOBASSO (14).

Suggested bet: Satori each-way.

TAB market mover: Laure Me In $6-$5 ($400 e/w @ $6/$2.40)

RACE 4: 1.40PM DANNY BARRETT VOBIS GOLD STAYERS (2400M)

Hard to go past SOPRESSA (1) on her recent form with three seconds in Group or listed races from her past four starts. At her last two runs she’s finished second in the Caloundra Cup and then the Grafton Cup which are races which contain fields with depth. She handles the wet. SASKO (2) is also racing in solid form. He tried hard last Saturday when fourth behind Lord Belvedere at Flemington. He’s won three from five on wet tracks. AMEROCK (4) finished on well for second behind Dylan’s Romance at Rosehill last start over 2000m. He’s having his first start over 2400m and it should suit. Forget FANCIFUL TOFF’s (3) last start failure at Randwick as he pulled up lame. Go on his wins at his previous two starts at Bendigo and Randwick.

Suggested bet: Sopressa the win

TAB market mover: Sopressa $3.10-$2.70 ($500 @ $3.10)

Tavirun will be going for three wins in a row at Caulfield.

RACE 5: 2.20PM MYPUNTER.COM HANDICAP (2400M)

TAVIRUN (2) has won his past two starts at Caulfield over 2000m by three and a half lengths and then two and a quarter lengths. Steps up to 2400m but can’t see a reason why he wouldn’t run it out powerfully. After Teo Nugent’s three kilos claim he’ll carry 56.5kgs the same weight he had last start. GREY KHAN (9) led in Tavirun’s win last start and stuck to his guns to finish third. Shapes as if 2400m should suit. Former Kiwi RIPCORD (3) charged home to win his Australian debut at Pakenham Synthetic in a BM64 to make it two wins from three starts. He won his second start at Hastings on a Soft track. NOT A SINGLE CENT (1) was perfectly ridden to win at Flemington last start defeating WEALTHY WOLF (5) and REFLECT THE STARS (6) and they also will have strong chances.

Suggested bet: Tavirun the win

TAB market mover: Tavirun $3.20-$2.70 ($500 @ $3.10, $300 @ $3.10, $500 @ $3, $400 @ $3, $300 @ $3, $510 @ $2.90, $2,000 @ $2.80); Ripcord $6-$4.80

Damien Oliver sticks with Benitoite (rails) after having won on her twice previously.

RACE 6: 3PM JENNA ROSS VOBIS GOLD REEF (1600M)

TAKSU (4) is lightly raced but is showing a lot of talent. He raced greenly wanting to lay in over the closing stages but he still ran down Frankly Harvy to win over 1400m on a Heavy 10 track at Cranbourne. Strong galloper who should like the step up to 1600m. BENITOITE (9) wasn’t being pushed along as his rider thought he was amiss but when she got into galloping room she flew home for seventh behind Great Duchess at Flemington. Damien Oliver who won on her at her two previous runs goes back on. ZARGOS (8) also ran on well for sixth in that race. Another filly COLLECTABLE (7) finished third in that race then ran on

for fifth last week behind Twilight Run at Flemington last week. MAGNOVISSIA (3) charged home for second in that race after being held up. TURN THE TIDE (1) was a strong winner over 1400m here last start.

Suggested bet: Taksu each-way

TAB market mover: No bets or movements of note

RACE 7: 3.40PM LONG FINE PLATE (1200M)

STREET ICON (6) share the lead with Gododdin at Caulfield last start and that pair fought out the race with a of the head separating them. Gododdin then finished third at Flemington behind Sylvia’s Mother. She won second-up last time in at Sandown Lakeside. Speedy filly PICKUP THE PIECES (5) resumes and she’s been flying in jump-outs. She’s quick and with only 53kgs will take beating. VOILA (2) is racing well and there should be more speed in this which will suit her run on style rather than last start when she finished fifth behind Gododdin here. Voila won two starts ago at Caulfield over 1100m when she missed the start in a race where TELL ME (1) finished fourth but was held up in the straight. CALZINI (7) finished third in that race.

Suggested bet: Street Icon the win

TAB market mover: Pickup The Pieces $4.40-$3.80 ($500 @ $4.40, $400 @ $4.20, $250 e/w @ $4/$1.80)

Conditions will be made to suit for muddie Jungle Edge.

RACE 8: 4.20PM THE BIG SCREEN COMPANY BLETCHINGLY STAKES (1200M)

Looks a match in two between the reliable old mudlark JUNGLE EDGE (2) and the brilliant SESAR (6). Jungle Edge will have a significant break over his younger rival which he will need as he has a great finishing burst. At his last start Jungle Edge didn’t get a big break on his rivals and was run down by the smart Oak Door over 1100m here. He’s better suited over 1200m and if the track is worse than a Slow 7 it will also play into his hands. Sesar flew home to win first-up at his debut for Team Hawkes at Randwick last start. He’s a Group 2 winner at Randwick on a Heavy 8. BANDIPUR (4) sat wide and pulled up lame at his first start for a new stable behind Oak Door when he finished sixth. He likes Caulfield. MISS VIXEN (7) is fit and in-form. The reliable CLIFF’S EDGE (3) resumes.

Suggested bet: Jungle Edge each-way

TAB market mover: No bets or movements of note

RACE 9: 4.55PM CATANACH’S JEWELLERS HANDICAP (1400M)

ROMANCER (5) is flying for the Grahame Begg stable with a second up win at Flemington over 1400m before a second behind Reykjavik in the Winter Championship. Super honest Tasmanian galloper TSHAHITSI (2) resumed from a spell with an excellent fifth at Flemington behind Malibu Style which was his first run for 70 weeks. He’s won four and finished second once in six second up runs. He loves 1400m with seven wins from 13 starts and he also races well on a wet track. He’ll carry 57.5kg after three kilos claim for Teo Nugent. TRAVIMYFRIEND (7) broke a long drought when he won here over 1400m last start on a Slow 7 track. I THOUGHT SO (3) loves it wet and was beaten far in the Sir John Monash Stakes.

Suggested bet: Romancer the win.

TAB market mover: No bets or movements of note