Caulfield Cup 2021: The pros and cons for every runner in the big race on Saturday

Incentivise has the form and class to win the Caulfield Cup as Gilbert Gardiner gives his verdict on every runner in the field.

There’s no question Incentivise is the one they all have to beat in the Caulfield Cup. Picture: Vince Caligiuri–Getty Images

Herald Sun racing reporter Gilbert Gardiner runs a rule over the $5m Group 1 Caulfield Cup field ahead of Saturday’s spring major and makes a case for and against each starter and he concedes, even allowing for a torrid draw Incentivise must command top billing.

1. HOMESMAN (13) - $34

Jordan Childs, 55.5kg, Anthony and Sam Freedman

Hit: Likes Caulfield and proven at the distance. Lloyd Williams-owned horses must be respected in any Cup they contest. Ran second in this race in 2018.

Miss: Likes racing on speed so needs luck from the wide draw.

2. INCENTIVISE (20) - $2.60

Brett Prebble, 55.5kg, Peter Moody

Hit: Rising star boasts the best form, having won the Group 1 Makybe Diva and Turnbull stakes past two starts. Also, unbeaten on soft tracks (4-4).

Miss: Barrier. It’s the only problem.

3. EXPLOSIVE JACK (1) - $14

John Allen, 54kg, Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Hit: Derby beast won four of six at 2400m and beyond as a three-year-old and loves getting toe in the ground.

Miss: History. Barrier 1 has not produced a Caulfield Cup winner in 81 years.

SUPERCOACH RACING: EXPERTS REVEAL THEIR ROUND 3 STABLES

Explosive Jack has drawn the inside gate. Picture: Atkins Photography

4. THE CHOSEN ONE (9) - $13

Damian Lane, 54kg, Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman

Hit: Faultless campaign to date, building towards a peak performance. Drawn and weighted perfectly, gun jockey in the saddle. Ran third in this race last year.

Miss: Yet to win on a rain-affected track in 12 attempts & hasn‘t won for over a year.

5. OCEAN BILLY (7) $81

Damien Thornton, 53.5kg, Chris Waller

Hit: Melbourne Cup bound so distance not an issue. Backmarker who should appreciate a strong tempo.

Miss: Dry tracker and better over further.

Next stop, the Caulfield Cup.

Delphi wins easily in the Herbert Power. pic.twitter.com/wrcC2I0aVO

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 9, 2021

6. SELINO (17) $81

Fred Kersley, 53.5kg, Chris Waller

Hit: The Sydney Cup (3200m) winner will go back and be finishing off strongly.

Miss: Out-and-out stayer that needs to 2800+ metres to be effective. Rain would also be an issue.

7. PERSAN (11) $26

Linda Meech, 53, Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Hit: Distance specialist and capable in all conditions. His best is good enough to win. Trifecta hope.

Miss: Went off the boil last preparation and was gelded as a result.

Persan is not the roughest in the race. Picture: Vince Caligiuri–Getty Images

8. QUICK THINKER (14) $51

SCRATCHED

9. CHAPADA (18) $61

Daniel Stackhouse, 52.5kg, Michael Moroney

Hit: Caught the eye running on strongly last start in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes.

Miss: Wide draw and gone 12 months without a win.

10. DELPHI (19) $8

Damien Oliver, 52.5kg, Anthony and Sam Freedman

Hit: Took off early and ran them into the ground last Saturday. Impressive win to maintain perfect 2400m record (2-2).

Miss: Drawn second widest alongside Incentivise and unproven at Group 1 level.

Delphi and The Chosen One are both serious players. Picture: Scott Barbour–Racing Photos via Getty Images

11. MASTER OF WINE (10) $26

Dean Holland, 52kg, Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes

Hit: Wound back the clock last start, surging through the field to grab third. Strong wet form, drawn to get a cushy run, and will appreciate solid tempo.

Miss: Gone 18 months without success and had three duck eggs on form guide prior to last start surprise.

12. MONTEFILIA (12) $16

Jye McNeil, 52kg, David Payne

Hit: Huge run to win the Group 1 Metropolitan last start, making up a heap of ground against the pattern of the day. Mare in form and proven on wet ground.

Miss: Only three Metropolitan winners in the past 38 years completed the Caulfield Cup double.

.@hugebowman scores his 100th Group 1 winner aboard Montefilia in The Metropolitan. 👏👏👏 pic.twitter.com/liT8OK3JVr

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 2, 2021

13. PORT GUILLAUME (6) $81

Harry Coffey, 52kg, Ben and JD Hayes

Hit: Won three of six on soft tracks including a three-length romp in France in August 2020.

Miss: Not going well enough. Form all over the shop.

14. SHE’S IDEEL (5) $31

Craig Newitt, 52kg, Bjorn Baker

Hit: Beat Montefilia two starts back and then no luck in the Metropolitan. On Melbourne Cup path so should be running on strongly, likes wet tracks and drawn to get favours.

Miss: Runs the risk of getting shuffled too far back and potentially being caught on inferior ground.

Young Werther is peaking at the right time and drawn to run a huge race. Picture: Reg Ryan/Racing Photos

15. YOUNG WERTHER (8) $10

Daniel Moor, 52kg, Danny O‘Brien

Hit: Gave Incentivise an almighty fright in the Turnbull Stakes. Will get run of the race from barrier eight and be hard to beat.

Miss: Has a knack of finding one or two better each time he goes to the races.

16. NONCONFORMIST (16) $12

Craig Williams, 51.5kg, Grahame Begg

Hit: Lumped 59kg last start when beaten by the barest of margins in the Group 1 Might And Power. Won two of four on soft tracks and primed to peak on Saturday.

Miss: Will need everything to go right from the draw.

17. DUAIS (3) $16

Michael Dee, 51kg, Edward Cummings

Hit: Gripped on to win the Coongy last Wednesday and took an eternity for Micky Dee to pull up the mare after the post. Fitness no problem for the daughter of Shamus Award. Nice draw and performed on wet ground.

Miss: 1899 (Dewey) was the last horse to complete the Coongy-Caulfield Cup double.

There’s a fair bit of history against Duais making it a Coongy/Cup double. Picture: Reg Ryan–Racing Photos via Getty Images

18. CHARMS STAR (4) $61

Dean Yendall, 50kg, Chris Waller

Hit: Group 1 placed in New Zealand over 2400m, gets in light and drawn well.

Miss: Best form on top of the ground and just the one win from 13 starts.

EMERGENCIES:

19. GREAT HOUSE (2) $71

Not notified, 50kg, Chris Waller

Hit: Master trainer, great barrier and good winning the Newcastle Cup before not disgraced in the Metropolitan. Plus his wet track credentials are first class 7-3-1-2.

Miss: Have to question his class at this level.

20. CONSTANTINOPLE (15) $201

Not notified, 50kg, Aaron Purcell

Hit: Unlucky when fourth behind Mer De Glace in this race two years back.

Miss: Not been sighted in 10 runs since.

GILBERT GARDINER’S TIPS

1. INCENTIVISE

2. PERSAN

3. THE CHOSEN ONE

4. YOUNG WERTHER

Originally published as Caulfield Cup 2021: The pros and cons for every runner in the big race on Saturday