Brad Waters and David Gately analyse the Oaks Day quaddie at Flemington
Form analysts David ‘Gator’ Gately and Brad Waters have sorted the Flemington quaddie for Oaks Day. Plus, two good each-way plays in the $50 betting strategy.
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Herald Sun tipster Brad Waters goes head-to-head with Sky Racing form analyst David “Gator” Gately as they assess the quaddie races on Oaks Day at Flemington.
RACE 6
BRAD: The Inglis Bracelet starts the quaddie and this looks the toughest race of the day. AKARI (2) might find this a bit more to her liking than her last outing at Randwick. She didn’t really quicken in the soft ground that day and she was a Flemington carnival winner last year and rates an each-way ticket in what could be an easier race. MISS INBETWEEN (12) battled on fairly well in the wet at The Valley and is worth including down on the minimum in a tricky contest.
GATOR: Agree mate, tough race and looking for value with GAME OF THORNS (11). Forgive last run (slow recovery rate) and going on a good return when luckless, she has form around Icebath and Shout The Bar. ROCHA CLOCK (5) kept closing second-up and beat Shout The Bar so that ties in, she beat all-bar Dawn Passage third-up last prep. STROME (4) is off a nice win at Caulfield.
RACE 7
GATOR: Very tough race. PRES DE TOI (13) charged home last time when unsuited at 1400m, back out to 1600m here from a perfect draw. PIERRO BELLE (10) was only second-up when winning well at Horsham and can go on. INDIANA LILLY (12) has a good second-up profile and the drier track here no negative. VUNGERS (8) heads stack of other hopes.
BRAD: I love this race. I think it’s a great addition to the Oaks Day program and a great challenge for punters. DENERO (9) has a tough draw but the way he finished off at Cranbourne first-up was promising. He’s yet to miss a placing second-up and there should be plenty of pace on in a $500,000 race. Happy to play him each-way in this. I was on POLANCO (1) in his dominant win at Geelong on Cup Day there and happy to have a little saver on the in-form gelding.
PAKENHAM TIPS: SPAIN TO REIGN AGAIN
RACE 8
BRAD: Hard to go past MONTEFILIA (1) on her last two wins in Group 1 level. She’s a top-class filly and the only question is whether she’ll see out the 2500m but she’s got plenty in hand at the weights. PERSONAL (2) was sound again in the Wakeful Stakes last Saturday and she’s one for the exotics as well as MIRAVALLE (6), who also ran on well in the race. One that could run in the minor money at good odds is CAFÉ RIZU (3). She got a long way back at Caulfield and was just building into the race when she struck trouble. Thinking she might be a big improver.
GATOR: Agree, she is the obvious MONTEFILIA (1) given she thrashed MIRAVALLE (6) in the Spring Champion Stakes, that girl then ran so well flying home in Wakeful running some of the best closing splits of the day. PERSONAL (2) beat her home in that Wakeful and must have a case.
RACE 9
GATOR: Suspect she is a potential Group 1 winner WRITTEN BEAUTY (6) and happy to be with her, two wins this prep, two track records. She just has to handle the straight. MAHA (9) has the September Run form and drier ground helps. MARBOOSHA (12) has a case for sure. CELESTINE (10) the overs?
BRAD: The last sets up well from a punter’s perspective. WRITTEN BEAUTY (6) looks a high-class filly that had a lap on her opposition at The Valley but she’s backable at $2.30. However, she’s having her first run down the straight. If she doesn’t handle it, there looks to be an obvious insurance play on MINHAAJ (4) at $9.50. She was a length from September Run down the straight at her last two runs and we know how good that form is now. She’s an obvious saver in the unlikely scenario the favourite doesn’t enjoy the straight track.
QUADZILLA WITH BRAD WATERS
LEG 1: RACE 6
The Oaks Day quaddie is no snack for punters but there’s plenty of room to go as wide as possible in the first two legs and hope some of the rougher selections bob up. The Inglis Bracelet starts Thursday’s quaddie and it’s an even contest with some Sydney form to weigh up as well. MISSYBEEL (1) can improve back on dry ground while AKARI (2) drops in class. I AM ELOQUENT (3) and MISS INBETWEEN (12) were good at The Valley. ROCHA CLOCK (5) is worth adding to an already wide leg as is STROME (4)
1st leg: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 12
LEG 2: RACE 7
The second leg is certainly the hardest leg of the Flemington quaddie and if we land it, we’ll be a long way towards a dividend. The hardest part about this race is the fact nearly all runners are going into it in good form through the qualifying series. We’re going wide but we can’t make it a field job. POLANCO (1), DENERO (9) and LORD MARKEL (15) are among the top picks but some hard decisions have to be made regarding some of the other in an extremely difficult race.
2nd leg: 1, 2, 3, 9, 11, 15, 18, 20
LEG 3: RACE 8
The Oaks is the third leg and MONTEFILIA (1) looks a class above her rivals in the $1 million race after beating the boys in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) in Sydney last time out. However, there’s always that little doubt at her first go at 2500m so PERSONAL (2) is the back-up to the top pick. However, I expect the favourite’s class to prevail.
3rd leg: 1, 2
LEG 4: RACE 9
The last leg of the Flemington quaddie will be run down the straight, which often produces tricky contests but there looks three clear chances in the Oaks Day finale. WRITTEN BEAUTY (6) has looked a star at her two wins this time in and she should be fine down the straight. But putting in both MINHAAJ (4) and MAHA (9) just in case the favourite doesn’t enjoy straight racing. They both went well behind the Coolmore Stud Stakes winner September Run at their last starts down the straight.
4th leg: 4, 6, 9
Cost $100 flexi for 34.7 per cent
SKINNY QUADDIE
The skinny quaddie depends on how brave you want to be in the last two legs. Do you want to take the favourites one-out? That approach will help with the incredibly tough opening legs, which can’t be trimmed down too much, especially the second leg. We can probably trim the emergencies off the second leg as they’re unlikely to get a start with trainers reluctant to scratch country horses from a $500,000 race.
1st leg: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 12
2nd leg: 1, 2, 3, 9, 11, 15
3rd leg: 1
4th leg: 6
Cost $100 flexi for 277 per cent
FOUR-PLAY BRAD WATERS $50 BETTING STRATEGY
FLEMINGTON
RACE 1
$50 win NOVEMBER DREAMING (2) at $2.50
Chancing the arm on the first favourite of the day on Thursday. November Dreaming was most impressive when powering home from a long way back to score at Geelong first-up. She’ll be much fitter for that run and is unbeaten second-up. She can get punters off to the right start.
RACE 3
$25 each-way GARNER (3) at $9.50/$2.50
Garner gets back to Flemington after a few runs elsewhere and he’ll be well suited down the straight. He won down the straight during last year’s Melbourne Cup Carnival and wasn’t far away in a harder race at Caulfield last time out. He’ll get cover early and should run on well late.
RACE 4
$50 win ADELAIDE ACE (5) at $5.50
Adelaide Ace was tried as a stayer in the autumn but struggled past 2000m and he has been outsprinted without disgracing himself in four spring runs. But this time trainer Lindsey Smith has set an 1800m assignment for Adelaide Ace at Flemington. Adelaide Ace beat the smart Nonconformist at Caulfield at his last run over the trip in February. He’s also won over the trip at Flemington.
RACE 6
$25 each-way AKARI (2) at $10 / $2.90
Diamond Effort has turned in solid efforts in harder races than Saturday’s Group 3 contest at her last two starts and she’ll relish dropping back to mares’ grade in the last on Derby Day. She was a decisive winner of her only previous straight track run and has drawn the middle of the line, which will allow jockey Ben Melham to get her into the perfect position early.