The Run Home: Every NRL team’s predicted finish, Sharks slipping again, Cowboys have work to do

The Cowboys have found form at the right time of the season, but they’ve still got work to do, while the Sharks are once again running out of steam before finals. PAMELA WHALEY predicts where every team will finish.

Brisbane’s horror loss to Canterbury has flipped the competition on its head for the second week in a row, and not in a good way if you’re a Broncos fan.

As teams race for a finals finish, the last six weeks of the season is full of twists and turns with two spots up for grabs and seven teams chasing as four points separate fifth and 11th spot on the ladder.

The Bulldogs and Cowboys are hitting form at the right time, while the Sharks, Dolphins and Raiders are in danger.

As for the Broncos, they might be done.

We’ve crunched the numbers and found the teams set to buckle, those with an easy draw and the teams who might just sneak into finals after a wild ride.

MELBOURNE STORM

Cameron Munster’s return will only make the Storm stronger. Picture: NRL Photos

Current position: 1st (36 points, 15 wins, 3 losses, 3 byes, +159 points differential)

Whaley’s prediction: 1st (46pts, 21 wins, 3 losses)

Run home: Dragons (w), Rabbitohs (w), Panthers (w), Dolphins (w), Cowboys (w), Broncos (w)

Verdict: Lock them in for a home final, with one hand on the minor premiership already. They’ve now had seven straight wins and don’t look like slowing down. Cameron Munster made his return from a groin injury against Parramatta but is expected to slot back into the starting side this week. He’s been sidelined for most of the season with the ongoing issue, and amazingly Melbourne have rolled on without him. But if he’s back to anywhere near his best in the last six weeks, Storm will be practically unstoppable for the title. Their only competition is Penrith.

PENRITH PANTHERS

Nathan Cleary hasn’t missed a beat since his return. Picture: NRL Photos/Gregg Porteous

Current position: 2nd (32 points, 13 wins, 5 losses 3 byes, +154pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 2nd (42pts, 18 wins, 6 losses)

Run home: Knights (w), Eels (w), Storm (l), Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (w)

Verdict: With Nathan Cleary back on the field the three-time premiers make rugby league look easy – even without Dylan Edwards (knee) at the back. As it stands it’s a two-way race for the premiership between the Panthers and Melbourne, and that score will be settled in round 24 when they meet for second time this season at BlueBet Stadium. Given how many players they’ve had out across the season they’re unlikely to rest their stars between now and week one of the finals.

SYDNEY ROOSTERS

The Roosters bounced back to form against the Sea Eagles. Picture: Brendon Thorne/Getty Images

Current position: 3rd (28 points, 12 wins, 7 losses, 2 byes, +213pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 3rd (40pts, 17 wins, 7 losses)

Run home: Dolphins (w), bye, Eels (w), Titans (w), Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w)

Verdict: A big loss to Melbourne was a reality check but they bounced back with a solid win over Manly in round 21. They’re now in a battle to lock in a top four spot though, with Sharks, Bulldogs and Sea Eagles all chasing. Joey Manu is nearing a return and could play as soon as Friday night against the Dolphins in Perth which would be a huge boost at the right time. A bye in round 23 is opportune before a relatively easy run to the finals. Their last four games are against teams outside the top eight, with just the Raiders gunning for a finals finish.

CRONULLA SHARKS

The Sharks may struggle to hold onto their top four spot. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

Current position: 4th (28 points, 11 wins, 7 losses, 3 byes, +117pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 5th (34pts, 14 wins, 10 losses)

Run home: Rabbitohs (w), Titans (l), Knights (l), Dragons (w), Warriors (l), Sea Eagles (l)

Verdict: The Sharks are running out of steam at the wrong time of year. Again. The loss of Nicho Hynes has hit them hard, but they’ve only won two games since round 12. Will Kennedy and Royce Hunt are expected back to face the Rabbitohs which should get them across the line. But their biggest concern is form in September. Their good work at the start of the year will get them there but they haven’t won a finals game since 2018.

CANTERBURY BULLDOGS

The Bulldogs are on fire. Picture: Albert Perez/Getty Images

Current position: 5th (26 points, 10 wins, 8 losses, 3 byes, +88pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 6th (34pts, 14 wins, 10 losses)

Run home: Raiders (w), Dragons (w), Dolphins (w), Warriors (l), Sea Eagles (l), Cowboys (w)

Verdict: If they weren’t before, the Dogs are having a party after thrashing Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium. It has cemented their legitimacy with six weeks to go before finals, and put the rest of the competition on notice from now on as every game has finals ramifications. If they can keep winning they’ll knock out their top eight competitors along the way.

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS

The Cowboys have won four of their last five. Picture: NRL Photos

Current position: 6th (26pts, 11 wins, 8 losses, 2 byes, +11pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 7th (34pts, 14 wins, 10 losses)

Run home: Tigers (w), Broncos (w), Raiders (w), bye, Storm (l), Bulldogs (l)

Verdict: The Cowboys have now won four of their last five games, including a crucial win over the Sharks in round 21. They’re finding form at the right time of the season, which should guarantee them a top eight finish. However, they’ve got work to do. A bye helps, and they will need at least two other wins to ensure their spot. They play three of their last five games at home, including the Broncos derby, a desperate Raiders side and Melbourne after the bye. A return bout against the Bulldogs in Round 27 could decide their fate.

MANLY SEA EAGLES

Manly have an opportunity to reset with the bye this week. Picture: Brendon Thorne/Getty Images

Current position: 7th (25 points, 10 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes, +93pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 4th (37pts, 15 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw)

Run home: Bye, Raiders (w), Warriors (w), Tigers (w), Bulldogs (w), Sharks (w)

Verdict: They have the bye this week which will freshen them up following a bruising clash with the Roosters on Saturday. After a well-deserved rest, they’re a real chance of winning through to the end of the year, despite big games against the Raiders and Sharks at 4 Pines Oval as well as the Bulldogs at Accor Stadium. With Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic firing anything is possible.

DOLPHINS

The Dolphins might have blown their top eight chances. Picture: Matt Roberts/Getty Images

Current position: 8th (24 points, 9 wins, 9 losses, 3 byes, +39pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 10th (28pts, 11 wins, 13 losses)

Run home: Roosters (l), Warriors (w), Bulldogs (l), Storm (l), Broncos (l), Knights (w)

Verdict: They’ve given up four points across the past fortnight in games they should have iced. They lost in golden point to Penrith and then let a 14-0 lead slip against the Titans on Sunday. And it just gets worse from here. They still face the Roosters, Bulldogs, Broncos and Storm on the run home. They would need to win at least one of those games, as well as beat the Warriors and Knights to make a maiden finals appearance.

CANBERRA RAIDERS

The Raiders have a tough run home. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

Current position: 9th (24 points, 9 wins, 9 losses, 3 byes, -71pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 13th (24pts, 9 wins, 15 losses)

Run home: Bulldogs (l), Sea Eagles (l), Cowboys (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l), Dragons (l)

Verdict: The Raiders have now won two in a row and have breathed life back into their finals chances, no matter how slim. To make the cut they’ll need to collect some big scalps from now on, including Manly at Brookvale, the Cowboys in Townsville, Penrith in Canberra and the Roosters at Allianz Stadium. If they can beat the Bulldogs at Belmore on Sunday they will just need two more wins across the last five weeks to be in with a chance.

ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

The Dragons will come close, but not quite make the eight according to Pamela Whaley. Picture: Jeremy Ng/Getty Images

Current position: 10th (24 points, 9 wins, 9 losses, 3 byes, – 92pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 9th (30pts, 12 wins, 12 losses)

Run home: Storm (l), Bulldogs (l), Titans (w), Sharks (l), Eels (w), Raiders (w)

Verdict: The Dragons looked flat against Penrith in Wollongong which did not fill anyone with much hope for the next six weeks. They round off a brutal fortnight by heading to Melbourne to face the Storm this weekend, but could jag a few wins across the last month against the Titans in Wollongong, Eels at CommBank and Raiders in Kogarah to finish just outside the top eight.

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS

Pamela Whaley backs the Knights to sneak into the eight. Picture: Scott Gardiner/Getty Images

Current position: 11th (22 points, 8 wins, 10 losses, 3 byes, -97pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 8th (30pts, 12 wins, 12 losses)

Run home: Panthers (l), Tigers (w), Sharks (w), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (w), Dolphins (l)

Verdict: The Knights had back-to-back losses against Manly and Brisbane before the bye, and return in the worst possible way – taking on Penrith in Penrith. However, they have a decent draw to finish the year with three of five games against teams outside the top eight. They can afford just two losses and no more if they’re making finals though, which will take another giant effort.

WARRIORS

The Warriors would need a big lift in the run home to make finals. Picture: Dave Rowland/Getty Images

Current position: 12th (21 points, 8 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes, -22pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 11th (29pts, 11 wins, 12 losses, 1 draw)

Run home: Eels (w), Dolphins (l), Sea Eagles (l), Bulldogs (w), Sharks (w), bye

Verdict: The Warriors have won just two of their last six games and are at long odds to make the top eight now, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility given they’ve had some great wins this year. With injuries mounting it looks like a bridge too far, but a winning streak could save them. They play the Eels this week and the Bulldogs in round 25 at home in Auckland, but have a trip to Brisbane and two to Sydney to round off the season before a last round bye. They’ll need to win both home games and at least two on the road to make finals.

BRISBANE BRONCOS

It’s all but over for the Broncos. Picture: Zain Mohammed / NRL Photos

Current position: 13th (20 points, 8 wins, 11 losses, 2 byes, 0dp)

Whaley’s prediction: 12th (28pts, 11 wins, 13 losses)

Run home: Titans (w), Cowboys (l), bye, Eels (w), Dolphins (w), Storm (l)

Verdict: Put a fork in them, they’re done. The grand finalists are still a mathematical chance of playing finals, but they’re not playing anywhere near the standard that’s required of them to make it. They have won just one game since round 12 and face the Titans and Cowboys away over the next fortnight before a bye. If they have a sudden change of heart they can get there by winning all of their last five games, including a showdown with Melbourne in the final round.

GOLD COAST TITANS

The Titans triumphed against the Dolphins in round 21. Picture: Matt Roberts/Getty Images

Current position: 14th (20 points, 7 wins, 11 losses, 3 byes, -82 pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 15th (20pts, 7 wins, 17 losses)

Run home: Broncos (l), Sharks (l), Dragons (l), Roosters (l), Knights (l), Panthers (l)

Verdict: It’s hard to get a read on the Titans this season, except to recognise they’re in a better spot than they have been under Des Hasler. They led the Sea Eagles before getting mauled at Brookvale Oval, but then managed to stage a courageous comeback against the Dolphins on Sunday. To make the top eight they would need an undefeated run through to the end of the year, and huge games to come against the Roosters and Panthers, it’s too late.

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Alex Johnston has been ruled out for the season for the Rabbitohs. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

Current position: 15th (20 points, 7 wins, 11 losses, 3 byes, -110pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 14th (22pts, 8 wins, 16 losses)

Run home: Sharks (l), Storm (l), Tigers (w), Knights (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l)

Verdict: Cameron Murray is set to return against the Sharks after serving a two-match ban which is welcome timing after a big loss to the Raiders on Sunday night. They have a tough run home with games against all top three sides, Storm, Panthers and Roosters, as well as the Knights and Sharks fighting for their own finals hopes.

PARRAMATTA EELS

Pamela Whaley thinks the Eels will narrowly avoid the wooden spoon. Picture: Brendon Thorne/Getty Images

Current position: 16th (14 points, 4 wins, 14 losses, 3 byes, -171pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 16th (16pts, 5 wins, 19 losses)

Run home: Warriors (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l), Broncos (l), Dragons (l), Tigers (w)

Verdict: Parramatta fans are counting down the day until this wretched season is over. With Mitch Moses sidelined through injury, there’s not much hope for the last six games of the year until a spoon bowl play off with the Tigers in round 27 in Campbelltown. Even if they don’t win another game, they need those two points to avoid the wooden spoon.

WESTS TIGERS

It looks like the Tigers are destined for another wooden spoon. Picture: Dave Rowland/Getty Images

Current position: 17th (12 points, 4 wins, 15 losses, 2 byes, -229 pd)

Whaley’s prediction: 17th (14pts, 4 wins, 20 losses)

Run home: Cowboys (l), Knights (l), Rabbitohs (l), Sea Eagles (l), bye, Eels (l)

Verdict: There’s nothing much positive to say about the Tigers this year as they charge towards their third-straight wooden spoon. With a bye in hand, they will be equal points with the Eels coming into the final round if neither side wins another game. Then it’s every man for himself to avoid last.

Originally published as The Run Home: Every NRL team’s predicted finish, Sharks slipping again, Cowboys have work to do