KFC SuperCoach NRL teams analysis Round 16
We knew Jason Taumalolo was out but Cameron Munster’s shock inclusion ahead of schedule for the Melbourne Storm has sent KFC SuperCoaches back to the drawing board.
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WINNERS
* Cameron Munster – A shock inclusion for the Storm with his knee injury originally expected to keep him out for another week. Still owned by 14 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches and if you don’t own him, make a plan to buy as he has the Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs, Cowboys, Tigers and Dragons in the run home. Those last three are particularly tempting.
* Cameron Smith – Returns from a three-week hiatus due to a shoulder injury. He still has the highest average of any hooker in KFC SuperCoach and will be welcomed back into the Sangster’s Paradise squad this week as a replacement for Jason Taumalolo (via Cameron McInnes).
* Shaun Johnson – The highest averaging five-eighth in KFC SuperCoach returns after being a late withdrawal last week due to a minor groin injury and the birth of his child. Lock him in for a big one against the Cowboys, who concede the most KFC SuperCoach points to halfbacks and five-eighths.
* Harry Grant – Returns after a three week break due to minor knee surgery. Only Smith and McInnes have averaged more at hooker this year. But given the strong competition in the position and a horror run home, it’s best to sit back and watch for now, especially with Jacob Liddle on the bench.
* Starford To’a – Last week’s most popular cheapie and second most purchased player overall has been named for the Knights despite failing to finish last week due to concussion. To’a lasted just 36 minutes against the Cowboys, rising just $23,100 compared to his predicted surge of over $50,000.
LOSERS
* Jason Taumalolo – Ruled out for up to four weeks with a calf injury, meaning he may play only one more game this year. Taumalolo is therefore a definite sell with the most popular targets (in order according to KFC SuperCoach Stats) being Ryan Matterson, John Bateman, Damien Cook, Cameron McInnes, Mitchell Barnett, Brett Morris, Tohu Harris, Cameron Smith and David Klemmer.
* Apisai Koroisau – Will miss at least one week and possibly two with a calf injury. Koroisau is therefore the second most popular sell behind Taumalolo with Cameron Smith the most popular replacement.
* Brandon Smith – Third most sold player after suffering a broken jaw, ruled out for four weeks.
* Kalyn Ponga – Set to lose kicking duties with Mason Lino back in the side, replacing the injured Blake Green (ACL). Still a hold, still a play, but not a captaincy option.
* Steven Marsters – By far the most popular cheapie this week and 10th most popular player overall after notching 71 points on debut, including a try and two linebreaks. But reverse trades now. Marsters has been dropped and is no longer an option. Even before today’s team news I’d prefer a nuff like Kayleb Milne or Ben Trbojevic (both 2RF/CTW), who offer exactly what we want from a nuff – dual position flexibility, playing late in the round (good for VC loophole) and no chance of being auto emergency nightmares.
* Isaah Yeo – Switches to an edge this week following the suspension of Viliame Kikau. Not ideal, but still a hold and play.
* Viliame Kikau – Out for one week through suspension. Still owned by 17 per cent despite possessing just the 25th best average of any 2RF. Definite sell, even with the Panthers’ soft draw.
* Siosifa Takalai – Last week’s fourth most popular buy has been dropped to the bench.
* Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – “Rested” for the Cowboys. But it makes little difference for KFC SuperCoach as he was already the fourth most sold player after well-and-truly peaking in price.
MORE NEWS
REVIEW: 10 things we learned from weekend
CASUALTY WARD: All the weekend injuries
ANALYSIS: Players to go big in final rounds
EELS:
Teams comment: Just the one change with Andrew Davey coming in for Marata Niukore (suspended).
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Ryan Matterson is the most popular replacement for Jason Taumalolo and for good reason following 115 on the weekend. While Matto no doubt has these big scores in him, it’s his consistency that appeals most, with his lowest score this year being 60 (discounting the game he lasted only 15 minutes due to concussion). His base is off the charts for an edge backrower, averaging 57 in runs and tackles this year (again discounting the injury-affected score). Safe as houses, with upside, and basically a must-have given the current KFC SuperCoach injury crisis.
Maika Sivo broke a three-game tryscoring “drought” last week and is very cheap ($371,900). He has as upcoming match-ups against the Warriors, Broncos and Tigers, and is the type of upside POD that could win or lose a head-to-head final.
RABBITOHS
Teams comment: Alex Johnston (HIA) is out replaced on the wing by Corey Allan. Dane Gagai was a late withdrawal last week and comes in for Steven Marsters. Liam Knight returns from suspension at the expense of Kurt Dillon.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Damien Cook is the third most purchased player this week and by far the most popular replacement for Koroisau, and also a popular replacement for Taumalolo via McInnes. He returned to form with 93 on the weekend, but the four weeks prior were very lean, averaging a tick under 52. As a long-time owner I’m hardly enamoured with his performances. But realistically he’s the second best hooker in KFC SuperCoach behind Smith (once you swing McInnes into the back row).
Latrell Mitchell reminded us what he is capable of with 141 on the weekend. But he can’t be relied on as a KFC SuperCoach player, sitting 14th for average at CTW and averaging just 13 in base stats. He also has 3/5 tough match-ups in the run home against the Eels, Storm and Roosters. See Steven Marsters analysis from above
DRAGONS
Teams comment: No change to the starting 13. Korbin Sims (knock) is out which sees Jackson Ford come on to the interchange bench and Paul Vaughan (suspended) is out replaced on the bench by Billy Brittain.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Zac Lomax was strong again last week with 68 against the leaky Broncos. He’s a hold for the next two weeks in good match-ups against the Titans and Cowboys. However, at almost 40 per cent ownership, he’s a POD sell over the final three rounds when he takes on strong defences in the Raiders, Knights and Storm.
Cameron McInnes is a popular replacement for Tauamlolo, and as a long-time owner there’s no way I could talk anyone out of it. He’s averaged 70.5 in pure base since recommencing the lock role full time, including 15 runs per game. And I know I sound like a broken record but it makes me feel good to write this – MCINNES IS THE BEST BASE STAT PLAYER IN KFC SUPERCOACH THIS YEAR. It’s scientifically proven that people who own McInnes are less stressed. Because science.
TITANS
Teams comment: Ash Taylor returns at halfback after being a late out last week, Tanah Boyd goes to the reserves. Keegan Hipgrave benched in favour of Beau Fermor. Mo Fotuaika (suspended) is replaced at lock by Tyrone Peachey and Peachey’s place on the bench is taken by Erin Clark. Mitch Rein replaces Nathan Peats at hooker. Anthony Don is named in the reserves.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Beau Fermor is back in the starting side, which is great news for VC loopholers. Even so, with a PPM of 0.71, plan to nuff soon.
🎬 WINNERS AND LOSERS🎬
— SuperCoach NRL (@SuperCoachNRL) August 25, 2020
No Taumalolo, Koroisau or Kikau.@TomSangsterSC gives his lowdown on the Round 16 teams. pic.twitter.com/aI5IQKFsl2
ROOSTERS
Teams comment: Boyd Cordner (concussion) and Daniel Tupou (leg) return for the Roosters. Cordner’s return pushes Nat Butcher to the interchange and Tupou covers the loss of Matt Ikuvalu (ankle). Daniel Fifita has dropped from the interchange to reserves.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Brett Morris is the ninth most popular player this week after 107 on the weekend, his fourth ton of the year, which is quite amazing given he’s missed so many games. He’s scored 11 tries in past eight games which is in the “totally and utterly unsustainable” category even for him …. but …. he’s playing the Broncos this week. Not a bad shout as a one-week-wonder.
With the Broncos match-up a proven gimme in 2020, James Tedesco has remerged as the most popular captaincy choice this week. He sits just 76th in the competition for five-round average – yes 76th, not a misprint. But the Broncos have conceded the equal most KFC SuperCoach points of any side this year so it would take a brave owner to not put the VC on Teddy, at the very least, even with so many stars still missing at the Roosters.
BRONCOS
Broncos comment: Anthony Milford (hamstring) is out, replaced by Sean O’Sullivan at five-eighth. Cory Paix starts at hooker for Issac Luke with Brodie Croft coming on to the interchange. Corey Oates is on the extended bench.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Kotoni Staggs retained the goalkicking duties last week despite the return of Jordan Kahu and is a hold until stumps at this stage.
Patrick Carrigan is the biggest KFC SuperCoach winner from the injury/suspension/coach/CEO/everything crisis at the Broncos. He’s averaged 77 minutes over the last two weeks for scores of 73 and 86 and is a hold for the rest of the season, even against the notoriously stingy Roosters.
WARRIORS
Teams comment: Paul Turner had a great debut but has been dropped with Chanel Harris-Tavita returning at halfback. Eliesa Katoa returns from suspension which sees Isaiah
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Despite more than half of KFC SuperCoaches needing to sell Jason Taumalolo, Tohu Harris remains strangely low on the most purchased list as just the seventh most popular replacement. Of course, the biggest recent argument against Tohu is: “But Jazz Tevaga is back and he’s awesome and it’s hilarious to call him ‘Jazz Hands’ and stuff”.
But in actual fact, Jazz’s return has barely affected Tohu at all – he’s averaged 69.5 since Tevaga’s comeback compared to a season average of 71.8. Only McInnes has better base stats than Tohu this year and he’s scored the seventh most points of any player. Can’t go wrong.
KNIGHTS
Knights comment: As forecast, Mason Lino is the man to come in and replace Blake Green (knee) which could see Kalyn Ponga surrender goalkicking duties. No other changes.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Kalyn Ponga was barely a factor for most of the weekend game against the Cowboys, but still scored 66 including two try assists. His goalkicking is particularly problematic, having missed nine goals in the last month including a few genuine shanks, and he likely loses the goalkicking duties this week to Mason Lino.
David Klemmer is popular once again. Having being the most popular replacement for Payne Haas last week, he’s now the 10th most popular replacement for Taumalolo this week. When it comes to 2RFs and FRFs (which are basically interchangeable with the right duals), Klemmer has the third most points of any fit player with an average of 70.7. However, his recent stats are even more impressive, averaging 77 since taking on extra responsibility following the injury the Daniel Saifiti. As a long-time owner, Sangster’s Paradise can highly recommend.
SHARKS
Teams comment: Matt Moylan has been dumped after a horror defensive display, replaced by Connor Tracey at five-eighth. Shaun Johnson (groin/baby) returns at halfback in place of Braydon Trindall. Briton Nikora returns in the back row pushing Siosifa Talakai to the interchange.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: 31 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches welcome Shaun Johnson back this week and he returns straight into a great match-up against the Cowboys, who concede the most KFC SuperCoach points to five-eighths and halfbacks.
COWBOYS
Teams comment: Jason Taumalolo (calf) is a huge out. He is replaced at lock by Josh McGuire with Francis Molo promoted to start at prop. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Tom Opacic both drop out with Valentine Holmes returning from an ankle injury on the wing and Murray Tualagi in at centre. Daejarn Asi returns at five-eighth in place of Ben Hampton.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: See Taumalolo analysis above … but for what it’s worth I’m selling for Cameron Smith via McInnes. The most popular replacements are listed above but also consider these PODs from Wilfred. The one who tickles my fancy the most is Christian Welch, but I’ll leave it to Wilfred to explain.
PANTHERS
Teams comment: Two huge losses with Apisai Koroisau (calf) and Viliame Kikau (suspension) out, with both expected to miss just the one week. Mitch Kenny will play hooker in place of Koroisau. Isaah Yeo moves to an edge for Kikau. Brian To’o makes his comeback from an ankle injury on the wing with Brent Naden shifting to centre, Tyrone May to the bench and Daine Laurie dropping to 18th man.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Nathan Cleary’s consistency is scary for a half. He’s scored below 50 just once this year, which was way back in Round 5, and he’s the second most popular captain once again this week given a great match-up against the Tigers. In fact, Cleary is a must for at least VC and possibly C in all but one of his closing games, with his only tough match-up against the Eels in Round 18.
Much to Rob Sutherland’s delight, Stephen Crichton has finally learned to pass, with the winger outside him Josh Mansour scoring a double on the weekend. Given Penrith’s amazing form and schedule, there are worse tactics than backing both Crichton and Mansour for the run home in an all-eggs-in-one-basket play. See Apisai Koroisau analysis above.
WESTS TIGERS
Teams comment: Harry Grant (knee) returns ahead of schedule with Jacob Liddle relegated to the bench and Josh Reynolds dropped. Thomas Mikaele and Alex Twal are both promoted to the run-on side after successful comebacks from injury last weekend. Russell Packer is dropped and impressive youngster Shawn Blore called up to the interchange bench.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: David Nofoaluma continues to be the death of Sangster’s Paradise. Without the junk time 79th minute try he would have scored just 35 and I’d be laughing all the way to the bank. But, no.
Harry Grant is back this week but given the strong competition in the position and horror run home, it’s best to sit back and watch for now.
STORM
Teams comment: Three huge inclusions with Cameron Smith (shoulder), Cameron Munster (knee) and Jahrome Hughes (groin) all back. The returns of Smith and Hughes were expected, but Munster is ahead of schedule. Jesse Bromwich is also back after a one-game suspension, pushing Tino Fa’asuamaleaui to the bench with Nelson Asofa-Solomona to play lock. Kenny Bromwich (calf) is replaced at second row by Tom Eisenhuth while Brandon Smith (jaw) is out for 3-4 weeks. Marion Seve comes on to the wing, Sandor Earl goes to the bench and Albert Vete to the reserves.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: See Cameron Munster and Cameron Smith analysis above. Also check out Wilfred’s spiel on Christian Welch here.
SEA EAGLES
Teams comment: Moses Suli (foot) is out for the season, replaced by Jack Gosiewski at centre. Joel Thompson (tongue) returns in the back row, pushing Corey Waddell to the pine. Martin Taupau returns to the starting side with Taniela Paseka switching to the bench.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: How Jake Trbojevic isn’t even a factor as a replacement for Taumalolo is beyond me. I wrote the same thing last week when Haas got suspended. Jurbo has the best five-game average of any 2RF, which coincides with when he decided to stop being a halfback. Tommy Turbo will also be a huge POD when he returns in Round 17. And while on the subject of Turbos, Ben Trbojevic remains a great nuff given his dual position flexibility and run of late games. So in short, there’s a legitimate tactic of owning all three Turbo brothers simultaneously for the run home. I’m into it just for the romance (or bromance). #tripleturbo
RAIDERS
Teams comment: Corey Harawira-Naera is out of the side (contract requirement) with Matthew Timoko to debut from the bench. Otherwise, it’s the same 17, but Josh Papalii, Dunamis Lui and Hudson Young return to the starting side after coming off the bench last week.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: John Bateman is the second most popular replacement for Taumalolo. The base of 52 is very handy. But most importantly he has huge upside this week against the Bulldogs, before a tough game against the Roosters, and then a great run home against the Dragons, Warriors and Sharks.
BULLDOGS
Teams comment: Mass overhaul. Luke Thompson, Jack Cogger, Reimis Smith, Tim Lafai, Jake Averillo and Sauaso Sue are all out. Lachlan Lewis comes in at halfback, Marcelo Montoya at centre, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak on the wing, Dylan Napa is back from suspension at prop, Aiden Tolman at lock, Josh Jackson returns to an edge, Matt Doorey reverts to the bench and Renouf To’omaga and Dean Britt join the interchange.
KFC SuperCoach analysis: Will is still be best Hopoate despite today’s back page screaming brother Albert is “better than Bradman”. Hoppa has averaged 74 in three games at fullback this year (discounting his injury-affected score in Round 7). And those scores are far from outliers given his strong KFC SuperCoach record at fullback in recent seasons. He averaged 58 in three games in the No. 1 jersey last year and 67 in 10 games at fullback the year before.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach NRL teams analysis Round 16