KFC SuperCoach NRL: 10 things we learned from Round 15
Jason Taumalolo is a sell due to a calf injury, handing KFC SuperCoaches a golden opportunity to punt on these point of difference players in the run home.
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Another week, another batch of KFC SuperCoach-relevant injuries.
2020 is relentless!
Let’s see what we learned from Round 15.
1 Christian Welch combines potential and opportunity
It was literally just last week I wrote about Welch’s KFC SuperCoach potential and it took just one week for him to show that off. Playing just under 60 minutes, Welch smashed out an impressive 87 points in base and base attack stats – including four effective offloads – to highlight exactly how good he can be with an opportunity for bigger minutes. Well, he was better than I thought he could be, and that was only with Dale Finucane out injured and Jesse Bromwich suspended.
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The kicker now is that the injuries in that Storm pack have really compounded – Finucane is still out even if Jesse returns, now add Brandon Smith and Kenny Bromwich and the competition for middle forward minutes really drops. It’s not inconceivable that Welch will play 55 to 65 minutes for the rest of the year, and ‘storm’ (pun certainly intended) with an average of 65-70 points per game – not bad for under $450,000!
2 Flexibility is key
This is a general comment/reminder of old lessons, but also given recent events, it’s become highlighted again due to one specific player’s unexpected withdrawal – Shaun Johnson. Congrats have to go to Shaun and his family as they increased by one, and I doubt anybody would wish negative thoughts towards their young family. However, the minds of KFC SuperCoaches were probably more about “what am I going to do now?!” and plenty got stung and copped an auto-emergency nightmare as a result.
That’s where flexibility comes in so handy. With such great potential for late withdrawals due to injury, COVID-19 or anything else, it helps to have depth and the likes of Jarome Luai, with the HFB/5/8 dual positioning, become very useful when combined with another dual position player like Shaun Johnson, Kyle Flanagan or Dylan Brown. It’s worth considering this moving forward – not just in the halves, but all positions.
3 Tom Dearden looks promising
The kid is young, but already looks like a real talent on the field, and he’s had his first ‘breakout’ game on the stats sheet too. What’s impressive is that he doesn’t shirk his work, scoring 29 points in pure base, and also finding a forced drop out and 14 points in base attack stats.
He’s always going to be less desirable for KFC SuperCoach than the goalkicking halves, but there’s a lot of ‘Daly Cherry-Evans’ to his stats sheet and if he can show this consistency, he could end up as a genuine POD option in the future if the draw is right. One to keep an eye on, even if the Broncos suck!
4 AJ Brimson is high risk, high reward
Brimson has repeatedly teased, excited, and ultimately let down KFC SuperCoaches for a few years now. Here we are again, with Brimson finally back from stress fractures of the back (!), is seemingly managing his back each week (!) and is sitting on a three game average of 90 in his three games back from injury!
There’s no denying his form the last three games, and with the Dragons, Bulldogs and Broncos (!) on the horizon, he could keep that average up! But please, know what you’re getting yourself into – base that isn’t spectacular, a player who has missed multiple games due to injury and a player who has also finished games early due to injury. As I noted above, high risk, high reward!
5 Brett Morris is unstoppable
Averaging 84.3 points per game since the restart of the season, despite two low scores, ‘BMoz’ just cannot stop scoring tries on that right wing. 11 tries in eight games, plus a few try assists, BMoz is playing like he’s approaching the prime of his career, not as if he’s winding down.
His base isn’t fantastic, but when you’re playing in such a good team, with plenty of attacking opportunities, and you’re one of the best finishers in the game, who cares?! He’s expensive, he’s owned by only 4% and he’s looking at facing the Broncos this week… who says no?
6 Latrell Mitchell is a KFC SuperCoach freak… when it works out
It’s somewhat incredible that from 141 KFC SuperCoach points, just 22 of those aren’t attacking stats or scoring points in some form. Nine runs for 13 points, one tackle, and four tackle busts. Every single other point scored by Latrell this week is a try, a try assist, a line break, a line break assist, one conversion and even an intercept as the cherry on top.
He’s an incredible player when he wants to be, the problem is how little that seems to be. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still barely KFC SuperCoach relevant, even with his high ceiling, but with games against the Eels and the Storm coming up, I’d be more worried about how many attacking stats will come along with his low base.
7 Will Hopoate looks at home at fullback
He was out for quite a while with injury, but first game back and he hasn’t skipped a beat, chiming in at the perfect time in backline plays and also knowing how to play off the back of Kieran Foran’s good work in attacking areas.
In fact, he’s averaged 73 in his four games starting at fullback this season, and is quite affordable at just $463,700. With a mixed bag on the run home, but owned by just 1,810 teams, he’s going to give you a solid floor but with the potential for some attacking stats as long as Foran and he continue to combine well.
8 Jason Taumalolo is ultimately human
Another year, another injury for Taumalolo, who is out for up to four weeks. The guy is a physical freak of nature, and he can do things on the footy field that 99.9% of other players in the game can’t do. But with all that work, he can’t do it all himself, and this is the second consecutive year where we’ve seen injury take a toll on Lolo, causing him to miss multiple games.
Does this make him any less of a ‘must-have’ in future KFC SuperCoach seasons? Almost definitely not, but you have to wonder when the Cowboys start to think seriously about managing his workload, his minutes and all other aspects about Taumalolo more carefully, so as to not break their most expensive player!
9 A host of 2RF PODs loom as potential Taumalolo replacements
Mitch Barnett, John Bateman, Jake Trbojevic, Cam Murray, David Fifita, Angus Crichton (if named), Nathan Brown, Jazz Tevaga, Curtis Sironen… there are a LOT of names you can look at as potential replacements, with Taumalolo out for up to four weeks. This decision, given how close the overall race is, could go a long way in determining who gets to go home with the chocolates, and who ends up fading late in the season into irrelevance.
Reported calf injury for Jason Taumalolo. Video blocked but can see pushing off mechanism; matches calf strain. Moved around for a few tackles before requiring assistance from the field, brings concern for moderate strain (3-6wks return). Have to hope for minor strain & 1-3wks pic.twitter.com/oNzfKmLPMr
— NRL PHYSIO (@nrlphysio) August 23, 2020
KFC SuperCoaches need to decide whether they need stable consistent points, or they need to go for the ceiling play, searching for that potential upside to give 100+ weeks to give them even an extra five to 10 points in the limited weeks left this year! There’s no right or wrong answer here, but it doesn’t make the decision any easier or less important!
10 Josh McGuire could be a sleeper
Jason Taumalolo’s unavailability and good judiciary news have fallen the right way for McGuire. He could be a genuine replacement, similar to how Pat Carrigan has immediately stepped up in the absence of Payne Haas.
There’s a limited five game sample size but even just in the games missed by either of Taumalolo or McLean, McGuire’s average minutes jumps up to 71.2 minutes per game for an average of 74.6 points per game (up from his season average of 67 points per game from an average of 66 minutes per game). He also has a handy dual position status too…
Good luck for Round 15
Every time a highly owned player because a sell, there are opportunities that arise for movement in the ranks – choose wisely! Good luck with your choices this week.