KFC SuperCoach NRL: 10 things we learned from Round 14
Sell David Nofoaluma? Surely not? It seems insane to even think this given his stunning performances this year, but it’s a genuine tactic for KFC SuperCoaches.
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A comparatively calmer week, but the lessons become all the more important each week.
Let’s see what we learned from Round 14.
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1 Christian Welch has a lot of KFC SuperCoach potential
One of my favourite players for how he carries himself on and off the field, Welch is a pretty handy player too.
He has had a lot of bad luck with injuries, but he’s really shown in a few games this year what he is capable of.
Despite having a few games of low minutes off the bench, plus an injury-affected game, he has still managed to average almost three offloads per game.
With the Storm forward pack set for a bit of a revamp next year, with ‘Tiny Tino’ off to the Titans, Jesse Bromwich another year older and who knows what will happen with Brandon Smith, Welch seems a likely candidate for a bigger minutes next year if he’s still at the club.
2 Dylan Edwards could be one of the biggest high-risk PODs for the run home
Injury has kept him off the field for much of this year, but the games he has been there, Edwards has been very involved for the Panthers. He’s only made it through five 80 minute games so far this year but Edwards is averaging 76.4 points per 80 minute game.
His floor is decent but it’s all about the potential upside, with his run home being the Sharks, Tigers, Broncos, Eels, Cowboys and finally the Bulldogs. There are a lot of games there which the Panthers should not just win, but win quite comfortably.
EARLY MAIL: Predicted team changes
CASUALTY WARD: All the weekend injuries
ANALYSIS: Players to go big in final rounds
3 Jordan Pereira just needs more attacking stats
Pereira has only played 10 games so far this year, after returning from what was quite a scary neck injury last year. The good news is that he appears unaffected from what happened, and he seems to grow more in confidence in each game.
He also hasn’t really produced any attacking stats this year, scoring just one try and setting up another try in 10 games so far. To somehow average 47.8 points per game despite this means that any attacking stats and he could go large. With a ‘friendly’ next three games, for approximately $405,000 you could get a player owned by just 503 teams … talk about super POD!
4 Only 391 owners
Speaking of super PODs, Brian Kelly now has a three round average of 89.3 points per game, and a five round average (which I believe coincides mostly with his return to the first grade team and a shift to left centre) of 74.4 points per game.
Sure, he’s scored three tries and set up two others in that time, plus has four line breaks and four line break assists too, but even taking into account those attacking stats, Kelly has averaged 43.4 points per game in base and base attack stats — elite, keeper-level numbers for a CTW! The Titans’ draw isn’t too bad either, and even at approximately $540,000 this week … 391 current owners would be happy with that cash outlay!
5 Talakai – what a buy!
Some owners jumped on him earlier but there was definitely some risk involved. After all, his first 80 minute game was spent mostly at centre. Then the following week, he played centre! And it took a timely injury to Briton Nikora, as well as some indifferent form from him too, to give Talakai a starting edge spot last week.
He played hard and scored a respectable 56 points in 80 minutes. Well, this week, it all came up trumps for him! Another 80 minutes in the backrow for starters, but some of his runs were impactful to say the least, and absolutely damaging at other times.
Running off the hip of Shaun Johnson was always going to give the prospect of attacking stats, and this week, he duly delivered in his stunning 102 point performance. Talakai may have nailed down an 80 minute spot on the right edge, and at $410,000 roughly, how can you say no?!
6 Latrell Mitchell is barely KFC SuperCoach relevant without his goalkicking
It’s probably not really a lesson learned this week, but rather a gradual confirmation of what many suspected from early on — that his workrate is just too low to be able to sustain his KFC SuperCoach scores with any consistency.
There’s also the added fact that the Rabbitohs aren’t as good as the Roosters, which means the likelihood of scoring opportunities is less too. Now, to be fair he has increased his workrate naturally through his shift to fullback — he’s definitely making more hit-ups than he used to. But essentially, that 12 or so point bump that his goalkicking used to give is basically the main reason he isn’t currently a top CTW option this year.
7 Nick Cotric is incredibly frustrating to watch
We see every now and again how potent Cotric is as an NRL winger, as well as for the CTW in KFC SuperCoach too. Then he can disappear for weeks on end, barely making more than a few hit-ups out of necessity, before he suddenly shows up and gets interested again.
If you look at this year, when he runs the ball more than 12 times a game, his tackle bust numbers go up and he’s averaged 67.6 points per game in the five games he’s done that this year (including this week’s 102). He’s averaged 7.8 tackle busts per game when running the ball more than 12 times a game. Imagine Cotric was a bit more like Nofoaluma than Mitchell … with his physical ability, he would be an absolute monster for KFC SuperCoach!
8 Starford To’a looks like a potential downgrade option in the CTW
I don’t feel I can really call him a cheapie because despite the fact that he’s $245,100 and about to play his third game of the season, and has a breakeven of -24, it’s really not the time of the year to be grabbing cash cows and trying to make money. However, he’s a viable downgrade candidate if you still need a little depth in the CTW position.
He’s not a total workhorse, but he’s also not afraid to take a hit-up either. But what’s most important is that he’s playing on the left wing, Kalyn Ponga’s preferred side of the field, and he’s already scored tries in both his games this year for scores of 53 and 62. Looking at the Knights’ run home, he honestly could find quite a few more tries come end of the season …
9 Mitch Barnett could be a serious 2RF POD
Owned by only a bit over 1,000 teams, Barnett has been on a serious hot streak with an average of 73.3 points per game since being named as the starting lock four games ago. Most of that has just been base and base attack, with just one try assist and one try contribution in that average as far as attacking stats go.
His minutes are solid, his workrate is great and he can find an offload and generate some attack — with the Knights’ run home, he could be a serious option to consider ahead of the likes of Tohu Harris, Nathan Brown, Jazz Tevaga and so on.
10 Sell David Nofoaluma? Surely not?
It seems insane to even think this, but it may actually be worth considering whether Nofo should be sold in the next week or so. Obviously you’d let him appreciate a little more in price given his score just this past week, but Nofo’s draw gets a LOT harder from this week onwards.
In fact, there’s only one game against a bottom eight team left, and that’s against a Sea Eagles team that arguably should be top eight this year but for mass injuries. Nofo has averaged “just” 61 points per game in his seven games against the current top eight teams; compare that to his average of 98.3 points per game in his seven outings against the current bottom eight teams.
That’s a massive disparity, hence the question about selling him at his peak price. Of course, if you hold him and get a 60 average, you won’t exactly be disappointed but there’s merit to putting Nofo’s value towards a more guaranteed 75+ average player for the run home.
Good luck for Round 15 ...
It’s safe to say that we needed every single possible trade this year and despite the abundance of trades, it has been a REALLY tough year! Good luck with your choices this week!