KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021: Strength of schedule — draw analysis
We crunch the stats of every NRL club revealing which KFC SuperCoach NRL players will shine and which will struggle early in 2021.
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The draw for the 2021 NRL season is out and having first checked how it impacts your team no doubt your mind then turned to how it impacts your KFC SuperCoach NRL team. Right?
Well, me too, so here’s an early Strength of Schedule (SOS) analysis where we rate the draw of every club over the opening eight rounds of the 2021 NRL season.
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METHODOLOGY
I have ranked each NRL team using a highly scientific approach – well sort of scientific approach – based on:
* The average PPM conceded to all opponents by a team in 2020.
* The actual number of points conceded over the NRL regular season by that team, and
* The number of times a team leaked 80+ KFC SuperCoach points per game to any one opponent.
KFC SUPERCOACH DEFENSIVE RANKINGS (WORST TO BEST):
16. Broncos
15. Cowboys
14. Bulldogs
13. Tigers
12. Manly
11. Sharks
10. Titans
9. Knights
8. Dragons
7. Warriors
6. Rabbitohs
5. Eels
4. Roosters
3. Raiders
2. Panthers
1. Storm
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE AND KFC SUPERCOACH
Before you scroll down to see which teams fared well and which didn’t let’s take a quick pause to check which players benefit most from an ‘easy’ draw and which players don’t.
In short, SOS is far more important for playmakers and fullbacks than it is for FRF/2RF. Now, experienced players would be nodding and scrolling, but for newer players let me explain why I believe this to be so.
Gun forwards are base stat beasts. No matter what jumper is on his back Jason Taumalolo is going to make in the area of 17 hit-ups and four tackle busts.
Sure, there is more likelihood of a few attacking stats against weaker teams but the aces of base will score well regardless of opposition.
Playmakers and fullbacks thrive on attacking stats and so the more points their team scores the better their chance of a solid return.
To put some numbers around these words let’s look at the average PPM conceded at each position by the best and worst defensive teams in 2020. In an attempt to average out the outliers ‘best’ is an average of the four best defensive teams and ‘worst’ is an average of the four worst defensive teams.
My takeaways from those numbers are:
* No position is immune from SOS.
* As expected, playmakers see a significant decline in KFC SuperCoach scores when facing the better defensive units.
* Fullback is the position most significantly impacted by SOS.
* CTW is the backline position least impacted by SOS. This was the case the past two seasons too. If I had to hazard at a guess why this is so I would suggest it might be the impact of the 2RF/CTW dual players like Yeo in 2020 and Crichton/Matterson in years gone by. It’s just my gut though so if anyone with a greater grasp of statistics than I (which to be fair is going to be many of you) has a better explanation please let me know.
* Hookers are more susceptible to SOS variations and I’m putting that done to the playmaker role filled by the best hookers.
2021 FIRST EIGHT ROUNDS STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE AND ANALYSIS (Best draw to worst)
1. TITANS: Warriors (7), Broncos (16), Cowboys (15), Raiders (3), Knights (9), Sea Eagles (12), Rabbitohs (6), Broncos (16). Total: 84
Analysis: With two matches against the wooden spoon winning Broncos, just one match against a top-four SOS ranked team and no five-day turnarounds it’s safe to say the Gold Coast have won the early draw.
Player to watch: Despite suffering a Lisfranc fracture during Origin I I’m going to stick with AJ Brimson here. A pre-season injury meant the Gold Coast fullback played his first game of 2020 in round 12 and Brimson looked tentative in that game scoring just 18 points in 80 minutes. From there though things certainly improved and Brimson averaged 80.5 across the remaining eight games with just one poor score (30), two 90s and two triple-figure scores. The Titans have added some real muscle to their forward pack and when the likes of David Fifita and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui break the line and look back for an offload it’ll be Brimson waiting there to profit.
EQ. 2. EELS: Broncos (16), Storm (1), Sharks (11), Wests Tigers (13), Dragons (8), Raiders (3), Broncos (16), Bulldogs (14). Total: 82
Analysis: Another team set to enjoy an early serve of double Broncos, the Eels start the season on the road and then head home for four consecutive games at ‘Fortress Bankwest.’ From there it’s back on the road to play Canberra away and the Broncos in Darwin. No five-day turnarounds early.
Player to watch: Pop quiz – ‘Which five-eighth had the best base stat average in 2020?’ Those of you who said Dylan Brown either need to get out more or read ahead. The young Eel averaged better than eight runs and 24 tackles per game last year which saw him average 37PPG in base. That’s a very healthy foundation upon which to build ‘keeper’ quality scores. Of course it also means he won’t come cheap, with his 2020 season average of 64 set to price him right up with the elite class of 5/8 to start the year. For those hellbent on grabbing a Parra playmaker Mitch Moses (season average 54) may be a better value proposition albeit one whose scoring will be a roller coaster at times.
EQ 2. PANTHERS: Cowboys (15), Bulldogs (14), Storm (1), Sea Eagles (12), Raiders (3), Broncos (16), Knights (9), Sea Eagles (12). Total: 82
Analysis: The Panthers will be looking forward to a GF rematch early in 2021, drawn to face the Storm on home turf in round 2, and they’ll need that home support as they must take on Melbourne with just a five-day break. If that’s a bit of a negative, travel is a positive with just two trips outside of Sydney in their opening eight – Brisbane in round six then Manly (in Bathurst) in round eight.
Player to watch: He averaged a stonking 83 points in 2020 so those who want to start 2021 with Nathan Cleary will have to make sacrifices elsewhere. Those who don’t find the cash could find themselves playing catch-up, catch up early on as he averaged near enough 15PPG better than the next best at his position. Cleary’s playmaking partner Jarome Luai finished the regular season on fire averaging 91PPG over the final six games making him a potential bargain compared to his 2020 average of 62PPG.
4. DRAGONS: Sharks (11), Cowboys (15), Sea Eagles (12), Knights (9), Eels (5), Warriors (7), Roosters (4), Wests Tigers (13). Total: 76
Analysis: I had to trust the process and put the Dragons in fourth in the list here, but between you and I, this draw seems tougher than that. They play the Cowboys up in Townsville and the Knights in Newcastle. No five-day turnarounds is a bonus.
Player to watch: It’s hard to go too high on any of the St George roster to be honest. If Ben Hunt were locked in to play 80 minutes at hooker, but available at halfback then I’d be mildly interested but not banging down the door to get him in. And Matt Dufty had a pretty darn good season, averaging 65PPG and finishing the season as a member of the 60/60 club for the first time in his career. Dufty did score a LOT of tries though and there are other fullbacks I prefer.
5. RABBITOHS: Storm (1), Sea Eagles (12), Roosters (4), Bulldogs (14), Broncos (16), Wests Tigers (13), Titans (10), Raiders (3). Total: 73
Analysis: Opening the season with Storm (in Melbourne), Manly (Lottoland) then the Roosters is a tough start for South Sydney but they should enjoy the three games after that with Bulldogs, Broncos and Wests Tigers all at ANZ before finishing with a couple of away games in Titans and Raiders.
Player to watch: As much as I enjoyed Cody Walker’s red-hot finish to 2020 (yes even his 203 against my Roosters because SC is life) it’s hard to justify finding the money to start with him in 2021. Before his double century, Walker was averaging 66.4PPG – as a result of it he’ll be priced at an average of 74PPG. I consider Latrell Mitchell to be an underpriced option with upside too but can’t keep suggesting fullbacks so for the main course I’d like to recommend the chef. Damien Cook averaged ‘just’ 70PPG which was a significant drop on his 2019 (78PPG) and 2019 (76PPG) heroics. Cook’s defensive workrate has increased over that span, and his 2020 run numbers were higher than those of 2019. In short I’m not buying the theory that either defences have worked out Cook or that Wayne Bennett’s game plan has cruelled his SC output. Rather I’m backing Cook to add a few points to his 2020 average and with everyone jumping on the bright shiny Harry Grant shaped thing he could be a bit of a POD early.
EQ. 6. RAIDERS: Wests Tigers (13), Sharks (11), Warriors (7), Titans (10), Panthers (2), Eels (5), Cowboys (15), Rabbitohs (6). Total: 69
Analysis: Ricky ‘The Road Worrier’ Stuart won’t be thrilled with Canberra’s start to the season with the Raiders facing two trips to Sydney and two to Queensland in the opening eight rounds. And to make it worse, there’s just a five-day gap between playing the Cowboys up in Townsville in round seven and taking on the Rabbitohs in Canberra in round eight.
Player to watch: If, as expected, Joseph Tapine is named to start at lock then I’ll be tempted to find a way to fit him into the Beasts. Tapine closed out 2020 playing lock in the final four regular season games averaging 71PPG (54BPPG) and 54MPG. Priced around his 62PPG season average I’m not sure he’s a bargain, but he is a forward with the ability to produce plenty of attacking stats.
EQ. 6. KNIGHTS: Bulldogs (14), Warriors (7), Wests Tigers (13), Dragons (8), Titans (10), Sharks (11), Panthers (2), Roosters (4). Total: 69
Analysis: The Knights play five of their opening eight games at home, travelling for matches against the Warriors, Titans and Panthers. The opening portion of the draw is pretty kind too, though it closes Panthers, Roosters (then Raiders in round nine) which will sorely test Newcastle.
Player to watch: Could the answer here really be anyone other than Kalyn Ponga? The brilliant fullback took his game to the next level in 2020 averaging 80PPG and busting out 150+ scores three times with a season high of 172 in round 13. Always dangerous, Ponga relished the open space that the six-again rule interpretation created lifting his output to average almost 15 runs per game with better than 60% of those runs over eight metres. He’ll cost a pretty penny to start the season, but many a team will find a way to fit him in. An honourable mention goes to Daniel Saifiti. The big prop averaged a stellar 63PPG across his injury-shortened 13 game season. If you subtract the two-injury affected games and the final round — where the Knights clearly placed their props in cotton wool with the aim to be fresh for the finals — his average jumps to 72.7PPG.
8. COWBOYS: Panthers (2), Dragons (8), Titans (10), Sharks (11), Tigers (13), Bulldogs (14), Raiders (3), Warriors (7). Total: 68
Analysis: Based so far away from the rest of the teams in the NRL, travel is part and parcel of being a Cowboy so even though they face three trips out of Queensland and one of those is the longest regular road trip in the NRL (Townsville to Mt Smart) I don’t think the travel is too much for North Queensland. No five-day turnarounds is a bonus in a draw which sees NQ play two games everyone will expect them to lose (Panthers/Raiders) and then six 50/50 games which will quickly tell us wether the club is going to bounce back from a poor showing in 2020.
Player to watch: Despite him coming into the season underdone after a stint playing NFL I had a mid-priced Valentine Holmes marked down as a value proposition going into 2020 and his hot start of 69, 63 and 102 points in the opening three rounds had me kicking myself for not selecting him early. Then Holmes lost his mojo in a big way averaging just 27.25 over the next four games (two of which saw him play limited minutes due to injury). After a lengthy lay off Holmes returned in round 16 with a so-so 46 points playing on the wing. So ‘why the watch tag’ I hear you ask. Well in round 17 Holmes regained the fullback role and went on to score 93, 63, 41 and 109 in the final four games. Coming into 2021 with a full NRL off-season under his belt, Holmes will once again be a very tempting mid-priced fullback option (can we pick more fullbacks this year Tommy??)
9. ROOSTERS: Sea Eagles: (12), Wests Tigers (13), Rabbitohs (6), Warriors (7), Sharks (11), Storm (1), Dragons (8), Knights (9). Total: 67
Analysis: Away matches against the Rabbitohs, Storm and Knights make what already profile as hard games even tougher and the Rabbitohs match comes after just a five-day turnaround. Distance travelled not really an issue though with just that Melbourne game out of state.
Player to watch: I wrote up Victor Radley in our 21 to watch in 2021 yarn and so feel I should find another Rooster to recognise but it’s tough. James Tedesco was immense in 2020 averaging a league best (Charlie Staines’ two game cameo excluded) 95PPG with six scores of 100+ including 199 in round five against the Bulldogs. But the price … it’ll blow your budget. Angus Crichton averaged 76 and so would appear priced out of contention but then one sees that from rounds 2-9 inclusive Crichton averaged 85PPG when playing the full game on an edge. If he were locked in for that role again then you could certainly argue Crichton is worth a start – but will he play 80 with Cordner, Tupouniua and Butcher also available not to mention Radley and Liu at lock? I’m going to sit this one out for now and come back to you when we’ve seen some pre-season form/have some inside word on possible rotations.
10. STORM: Rabbitohs (6), Eels (5), Panthers (2), Broncos (16), Bulldogs (14), Roosters (4), Warriors (7), Sharks (11). Total: 65
Analysis: Opening at home against Rabbitohs then facing back-to-back trips to Sydney to play the Eels and Panthers in rounds two and three the defending premier Storm face a tough task early. The frequent flyer points keep coming with a trip to Perth to play the Bulldogs in round five. Then to close out the stanza there’s a welcome run of three games at home – though the last of those against fierce rivals Cronulla comes on a five-day break. Melbourne are a great side, but even they’ll be tested early.
Player to watch: Can I have two here please? Ryan Papenhuyzen — yes another fullback — finished off the 2020 regular season in red-hot form. In his final seven games (with a couple of rests between them) Papenhuyzen averaged 88.5PPG. Priced at his season average of 71 you could make the case he’s a bargain. Then there’s Harry Grant, back home at Melbourne after his season-long loan deal with the Wests Tigers ended. Grant averaged 71PPG in 74MPG with the Wests Tigers. Now he may have some sort of timeshare at hooker with Brandon Smith but that’ll be offset by the fact he’s playing with a far classier support cast than he enjoyed at the Tigers. If we can get some clarity regarding his minutes then Grant looks a must, and despite a plethora of fullback options being available Papenhuyzen is profiling the same way.
EQ. 11. WARRIORS: Titans: (10), Knights (9), Raiders (3), Roosters (4), Sea Eagles (12), Dragons (8), Storm (1), Cowboys (15). Total: 62
Analysis: You know what would have been fair after their 2020 heroics? Giving the Warriors home games for every week of 2021. However, the paths of justice and commercial reality rarely, if ever, intersect and so it’s four at home and four in Australia to start the season for the Warriors. The three toughest games, Raiders, Roosters and Storm are all away too which perversely I’m putting down as a bonus because only mad fans like Anton Posa expect the Warriors to win those, so save your home ground advantage for where it has the potential to make the most impact I say.
Player to watch: Take a bow Tohu Harris. Just three Warriors broke through the 1,000 point barrier in 2020, with Harris finishing on 1,384 over 300 clear of second-placed Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (I’m willing to bet that none of you can guess who the third one was*). And yet, despite these heroics I’m not making Tohu the man to watch in 2021 – I just wanted to acknowledge his tremendous effort. I spent all 2020 saying Tohu’s run would come to an end and it didn’t but I feel the addition of quality middles like Ben Murdoch-Masila and Addin Fonua-Blake and to a lesser extent Kane Evans will see Harris play far less middle and far more edge in 2021.
So instead I’d like to turn the spotlight to Chanel Harris-Tavita. CHT started the season at five-eighth, was bounced out to become a utility bench player but then in round 13 he locked down the starting halfback job and played seven of the possible eight games left in the season. Harris-Tavita also locked down the goalkicking duties for the final five rounds. In his seven games at halfback, CHT averaged 65.4 (kicking 19/24 shots at goal in final five weeks). That run of games included the Panthers, Eels, Sharks, Raiders and Knights so that’s a fair effort. A young half on the up playing behind an improved forward pack, if he is earmarked as the first-choice goalkicker for 2021, Harris-Tavita makes strong appeal.
EQ. 11. WESTS TIGERS: Raiders (3), Roosters (4), Knights (9), Eels (5), Cowboys (15), Rabbitohs (6), Sea Eagles (12), Dragons (8). Total: 62
Analysis: They might not have the worst draw to start 2021, and travel isn’t an issue with their longest journey being down to Canberra, but I could see the Wests Tigers being 2-6 after the opening eight weeks. It’s a very tough opening four weeks and while the draw opens up a little after that it’s more likely than not that they are coming in to round five 0-4.
Player to watch: There’s only one Wests Tigers player that you want in your best 17 and it’s David Nofoaluma. But do you want to pay what will be a very high price (Nofo averaged 76PPG in 2020) for a player with a stiff draw? Well, yeah it’s tempting. Nofoaluma played the above opponents a total of 11 times in 2020 and finished with an average of 71.6 which is pretty close to his season average and is outstanding for his position. I went the entire 2020 without Nofoaluma and while I had my best ever finish (#126 humble brag – let me enjoy it because I know I won’t repeat in 2021) I do wonder what might have been if I’d joined the bandwagon …
13. SHARKS: Dragons (8), Raiders (3), Eels (5), Cowboys (15), Roosters (4), Knights (9), Bulldogs (14), Storm (1). Total: 59
Analysis: I must admit that when it came to writing this bit I looked at the draw containing Dragons, Cowboys and Bulldogs and thought I must have miscalculated. But the numbers are right and to be fair those easier games are offset plenty by games against the miserly Raiders, Roosters, Eels and Storm. Travel not too bad with two interstate games being Storm in Melbourne and the Cowboys (though only so far as the Sunshine Coast not all the way to Townsville). No short turnarounds.
Player to watch: There can only be one answer here and it’s my guy Siosifa Talakai. But again I write up Talakai in our 21 for 2021 article so let’s see if we can find another noteworthy Shark … nup can’t do it. If Talakai can bring the same hunger for hit-ups and lovely late offloads to the game that he had in 2020 then even paying his 55PPG price you’ll get a steal. I just need to convince Tommy that his time at CTW (both as originally selected and where he filled in due to in-game injuries) warrants the coveted DPP eligibility.
14. BULLDOGS: Knights (9), Panthers (2), Broncos (16), Rabbitohs (6), Storm (1), Cowboys (6), Sharks (11), Eels (5). Totals: 56
Analysis: The Bulldogs have recruited well in the off-season, and they’ll need to have those new recruits firing if they are to get away to a decent start with six of their opening eight opponents finishing in the top eight last year including the top three Panthers, Storm and Eels. To add to their woes the ‘easy’ games of Broncos and Cowboys are both away games up in Queensland and the air miles keep coming with the Storm match being over in Perth.
Player to watch: The Bulldogs’ best KFC SuperCoach performer of 2020, Aiden Tolman, was let go and Jayden Okunbor (who missed most of 2020 due to an off-field disciplinary matter), who I think has all the attributes of a KFC SuperCoach CTW keeper, did his ACL in the final game of the season so it’s a tough ask. I do think Luke Thompson could improve on his 2020 output but cover that here and so I keep digging and land at Adam Elliott. The lock forward was having a peach of a season last year before his year ended in the 54th minute of round eight due to a shoulder injury. Elliott averaged 61PPG but played just 12 minutes in round three due to a failed HIA and if you remove that game from his average it lifts to 68PPG which is good enough to finish in the top 10 2RF. Sneaky POD anyone?
15. BRONCOS: Eels (5), Titans (10), Bulldogs (14), Storm (1), Rabbitohs (6), Panthers (2), Eels (5), Titans (10). Total: 53
Analysis: As a number of wags have noted, every team the Broncos are drawn to face finished above them on the ladder last year. Storm, Panthers, Eels twice is tough and to that you throw in two matches against a significantly beefed up 2021 dark horse in the Titans and it’s easy to see how Brisbane finish so lowly here. There are of course some things in their favour too, the old one-horse town draw sees Brisbane play on Friday night five times, Thursday night twice and just the one Saturday afternoon. Cushy! There’s one trip to Melbourne, just one to Sydney and then the Darwin sweatbox in round seven.
Player to watch: The ‘stacked’ Broncos’ pack is a little less of a logjam following the off-season moves of David Fifita to the Titans and Joe Ofahengaue to the Wests Tigers. Payne Haas will still demand big minutes in the middle but the likes of Tom Flegler and Jordan Riki both look set to benefit in 2021. It’s also a big year for Tevita Pangai Jr. Nobody doubts TPJ’s ability on the field but off-field disciplinary issues limited the wrecking ball to just nine games last year. New coach Kevin Walters is happy with the way Pangai prepared in the off-season/during his suspension and has indicated he wants to use TPJ more through the middle than on an edge in 2021. He won’t come cheap after averaging 70PPG in 2020, but TPJ’s best position for KFC SuperCoach is in the middle and his superb offload game means he has a higher ceiling than most at the position. An intriguing option.
16. MANLY: Roosters (4), Rabbitohs (6), Dragons (8), Panthers (2), Warriors (7), Titans (10), Wests Tigers (13), Panthers (2). Total: 52
Analysis: Opening the season with Roosters, Rabbitohs and Panthers as their opponents in three of the first four rounds is tough but at least it will tell Manly fans where they stand early. There’s a fair amount of travel too with trips to Auckland, Mudgee, Bathurst and Wollongong in the opening eight rounds. No short turnarounds which is a bonus.
Player to watch: If it weren’t for the tough draw I’d be writing up Daly Cherry-Evans here but I’ll try to find someone other than a playmaker/fullback. What I’d like to do is take it on advisement. Joel Thompson has departed Australia for the UK Super League and that leaves a big fat juicy edge available at Manly. Jack Gosiewski was the man who filled in for Thompson in 2020, and is tipped to have the lead to make the roll his own in 2021. I kinda hope that doesn’t happen as Gosiewski lacks the workrate required to make him a KFC SuperCoach buy. How about I promise to come back to this one when we have a clearer idea of who is where in the pecking order at the Sea Eagles?
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach NRL 2021: Strength of schedule — draw analysis
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