Best bets and value play for Saturday’s Thousand Guineas meeting at Caulfield

A dominant Flemington win has left a Chris Waller-trained filly in contention for a Group 1 win while a $14 chance can win the other feature on the Caulfield program.

News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Thousand Guineas and Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes meeting at Caulfield.

BEST BET

AELIANA (Race 7, No. 2)

Outstanding winner against the males at Flemington last start. She’ll be powering home again at the end of the Thousand Guineas.

VALUE BET

WAR MACHINE (Race 9, No. 15)

Far from disgraced in the Golden Eagle and drops 5.5kg for what could be considered an easier race. He’ll have every chance.

EARLY QUADDIE

3, 6, 7, 9, 11/1, 3, 6/6, 8/1, 3, 7, 10, 11

$100 flexi for 66.6 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 7: 2, 4, 5, 11, 13

Race 8: 1, 4, 5, 8

Race 9: 1, 4, 7, 10, 15

Race 10: 4, 6, 9, 10

$100 flexi for 25 per cent

Aeliana and jockey James McDonald will again combine in Saturday’s Group 1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 1: 12.20PM VALE COLIN MCKENNA (1700m)

Expecting firm conditions for what looks a tricky Caulfield meeting for punters. GOLDENSTATEWARRIOR (3) could be the value runner in the first race after a solid maiden Australian campaign last time in. SURE (7) is lightly-raced but showing plenty of ability and will be suited at 1700m. NOTABADBUY (4) was a game winner at Bendigo first-up and will be much fitter. DELICIOUS TYCOON (10) boxed on well to score at The Valley and is worth thought.

SUGGESTED BET: Goldenstatewarrior each-way.

LADBROKES MARKET Ruakaka Raider $12 – $7.50.

RACE 2: 12.50PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100m)

TIFFANY VALENTINE (16) ran on well for second in solid start to her campaign at Geelong and dropped to 53kg will help her chances second-up. GIRL (12) is better than what she showed at The Valley and could improve. PANTELONE (6) has a good first-up record and likes this distance. FISSION (10) is consistent and won’t be far away again.

SUGGESTED BET: Tiffany Valentine to win.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Tiffany Valentine $6 – $5.

RACE 3: 1.25PM SHARP EIT SOLUTIONS HANDICAP (1400m)

EYE OF THE EAGLE (7) should have finished a bit closer in a $500,000 race at Flemington but is better suited back to 1400m here. MADAME ODETTE (6) might want a shade further but her trials have been solid leading up to this. SASSY BOOM (11) is racing steadily and should have every chance from barrier one. LITTLE JACK (9) is a smart galloper that could fire fresh.

SUGGESTED BET: Eye Of The Eagle each-way.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Sassy Boom $12 – $6.

RACE 4: 2PM GROUP 3 BLUE SAPPHIRE STAKES (1400m)

A small field for a $500,000 race but PISCES (3) looks suited in this after running on strongly for a first-up second at The Valley and was narrowly beaten at his only 1400m run. CAVITY BAY (6) ran on well in a Group 2 race last time and is a chance to break through despite dropping in trip. COLEMAN (1) is a quality colt that will find this easier than the Coolmore Stud Stakes at Flemington. RUNWAY RULER (8) hit the line well first-up and could add value to trifectas and first fours.

SUGGESTED BET: Pisces to win/box trifecta 1, 3, 6, 8

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Catoggio $6.50 – $5.

Dropping back to 1400m will suit consistent galloper Eye Of The Eagle at Caulfield on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 5: 2.35PM LISTED CAULFIELD VILLAGE STAKES (1100m)

MIRAVAL ROSE (6) has a good first-up record and her recent jumpouts indicate she’s ready to fire first-up in this. HOLY RACKET (8) didn’t have much luck at The Valley and could improve. CELSIUS STAR (1) chased well when resuming and his second-up record is good. LEMPICKA (2) wasn’t disgraced down the straight at Flemington and has won a couple at Caulfield.

SUGGESTED BET: Miraval Rose to win.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Kin $4.60 – $3.80.

RACE 6: 3.10PM GROUP 3 THOROUGHBRED CLUB OF AUSTRALIA STAKES (1200m)

One of the day’s bigger fields but RICH DOTTIE (3) will be fitter for her first-up win at The Valley and will be hard to beat again. GRIZINGER POD (11) resumed with a good effort at The Valley and will be improved. SHE’S GOT PIZZAZZ (7) jumps in class but there was plenty to like about her Kilmore win. ALWAYS ENUFF (10) did a good job to score at Bendigo and could progress.

SUGGESTED BET: Rich Dottie to win.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Tobeornottobe $6 – $5.50

RACE 7: 3.45PM GROUP 1 THOUSAND GUINEAS (1600m)

Hard not to be impressed with the way in which AELIANA (2) disposed of her opposition at Flemington and she looks well placed to win again. ZEITUNG (4) was a strong winner of The Vanity at Flemington and is hard-fit. BENAGIL (11) hasn’t had the best of luck this time in but is racing well and could threaten if there is enough early speed. STAGE ‘N’ SCREEN (13) showed plenty of fight after racing wide at Flemington and has drawn for a softer run.

SUGGESTED BET: Aeliana to win/box quinella 2, 4, 11, 13.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Zeitung $4.80 – $4.

Arran Bay will be one of the hardest to beat in the $500,000 Country Cups Final at Caulfield. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 8: 4.25PM VICTORIAN COUNTRY CUPS FINAL (2000m)

Tough race but ARRAN BAY (1) was a determined winner over 1800m at Flemington and races well over 2000m. He’ll be hard to beat with any luck from the draw. KEATS (5) went too hard on the speed in the Kyneton Cup and could improve. NEW YORK HURRICANE (8) drops in weight on his Kyneton Cup win and will be thereabouts. CHARTERHOUSE (8) was sound in Sydney last start.

SUGGESTED BET: Arran Bay to win.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: New York Hurricane $5.50 – $3.80.

RACE 9: 5.05PM GROUP 1 SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES (1400m)

Tough edition of the Group 1 feature but WAR MACHINE (15) could be over the odds after his good effort in the Golden Eagle while he drops 5.5kg for this. CHARM STONE (10) hit the line well over 1200m second-up and looks ready for 1400m. SOUTHPORT TYCOON (1) is the class runner of the race and is worth thought despite the awkward gate. JIMMYSSTAR (7) should get the perfect run from barrier one.

SUGGESTED BET: War Machine each-way.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Jimmysstar $3.80 – $3.20.

RACE 10: 5.40PM GROUP 3 HOW NOW STAKES (1200m)

Interesting race to finish but MISS ROUMBINI (9) could be the fresh on the scene here after impressing in her recent jumpouts. CIGAR FLICK (6) ran on well when resuming at Flemington while SHE’S BULLETPROOF (10) earned a crack at this with an easy win at The Valley second-up. NIANCE (4) was a brave first-up winner and will be fitter.

SUGGESTED BET: Miss Roumbini to win.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Extratwo $12 – $9.50.

Originally published as Best bets and value play for Saturday’s Thousand Guineas meeting at Caulfield