Best bets and value play for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup Day meeting
Developing three-year-old Keeneland can continue his march to the Victoria Derby with another win while the Anthony and Sam Freedman camp could go back-to-back in the Caulfield Cup.
Horse Racing
Don't miss out on the headlines from Horse Racing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Caulfield Cup meeting.
BEST BET
KEENELAND (Race 3, No. 1)
Entered the Derby picture with a resounding win at Flemington. Has a great racing style and can win again over 2000m.
VALUE BET
DENY KNOWLEDGE (Race 9, No. 15)
Led and proved too good in Group 1 company last Saturday to continue her development. She drops 6.5kg and will be hard to run down in the Caulfield Cup
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 2, 5/1, 3, 5, 7/1, 8, 10/2, 3, 6, 8, 12
$100 flexi for 55 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 1, 2, 6
Race 8: 2, 4, 8, 11, 16
Race 9: 2, 4, 7, 12, 15, 17
Race 10: 1, 2, 8, 11
$100 flexi for 27 per cent
RACE 1: 12.15PM LAMARO’S HOTEL PLATE (1400m)
The forecast rain makes predicting the track rating difficult, but SUGAR COAT (1) has won on good and soft tracks and can overcome a tricky gate to win the first. GETAFIX (2) went down narrowly in Sydney last time out and is showing ability. TAKEN (11) is still a maiden but didn’t have the best of luck at The Valley. LAKE FOREST (7) beat a handy filly at Benalla first-up and will improve.
SUGGESTED BET: Sugar Coat to win.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Taken $10 – $9.
RACE 2: 12.50PM LISTED GOTHIC STAKES (1200m)
Tricky race but LOFTY ARCH (8) is a promising type that was solid in Group 2 company at Flemington at only his second start. RESERVE BANK (6) also comes out of the Danehill Stakes and should be the hardest to beat. STOLI BOLLI (5) impressed with his win at The Valley and is hard-fit for this after four runs in. GALLANT SON (7) will be fitter for a solid first-up second.
SUGGESTED BET: Back both Lofty Arch and Reserve Bank to win.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Gallant Son $4.50 – $4.
RACE 3: 1.25PM GROUP 3 CAULFIELD CLASSIC (2000m)
Everything looks set for KEENELAND (2) to complete a hat trick of wins after drawing perfectly for his on-pace racing style. RED ACES (2) improved significantly when up in trip at Flemington second-up and the 2000m suits. SCARY (5) just peaked on his run late at Flemington but will continue to improve. KINGOFWALLSTREET (8) did his best work late over 1800m second-up and can add value to exotics.
SUGGESTED BET: Keeneland to win.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Keeneland $3 – $2.80.
RACE 4: 2PM GROUP 3 ETHEREAL STAKES (2000m)
TOO DARN DISCREET (1) has emerged as a talent in her last couple of runs, including a strong win at Group 2 level at Flemington. The jump to 2000m won’t worry her. KILLCARE BEACHGIRL (5) led and boxed on well at Flemington and should be in this for a long way. ALL KINDS OF FOLK (7) is getting better with racing and won’t be far away. FEMMINILE (3) should enjoy another rise in distance.
SUGGESTED BET: Too Darn Discreet to win.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Too Darn Discreet $3.90 – $3.60.
RACE 5: 2.35PM LISTED ALINGHI STAKES (1100m)
The impeccably-bred ISTHMUS (8) has returned from a spell in super form and can handle the jump to stakes class here. GUMDROPS (1) was OK when resuming at The Valley but is unbeaten second-up. FLYING FIZZ (9) is consistent and can show something first-up. NIANCE (10) is unbeaten first-up and won’t be far away.
SUGGESTED BET: Isthmus to win.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Pondalowie $9.50 – $8.50.
RACE 6: 3.10PM GROUP 2 THOUSAND GUINEAS PRELUDE (1400m)
Tricky race but TOBEORNOTTOBE (2) was sound behind the smart Bellatrix Star second-up and looks ready for the jump to 1400m. BENAGIL (8) trialled well before having little luck at The Valley and can improve. GEEGEES MISTRUTH (3) has gone well at both Melbourne starts and should be considered. ZEITUNG (6) didn’t have a lot got her way at The Valley and can improve.
SUGGESTED BET: Tobeornottobe to win.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Tobeornottobe $8.50 – $6.50.
RACE 7: 3.45PM GROUP 2 MILLENNIUM SPRINT (1200m)
ESTRIELLA (1) drops in class for this after two excellent efforts in Group 1 company to start her spring campaign. SPACEWALK (2) has a solid first-up record and was narrowly beaten in this race last year. ASHFORD STREET (4) gave a great sight in front last start and would relish soft ground. SANS DOUTE (6) can improve on her first-up run in heavy ground at Flemington.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 2, 4, 6.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Rey Magnerio $4.80 – $4.
RACE 8: 4.30PM GROUP 2 TRISTARC STAKES (1400m)
LADY IN PINK (11) can provide value after an excellent first-up run in which she was caught wide before closing well late at Flemington. SKYBIRD (4) hit the line well first-up and can race closer from the perfect draw this time. SO GLAMOROUS (16) started her campaign with a sound effort down the Flemington straight and will be fitter. REVOLUTIONARY MISS (2) won a similar race at Flemington and should be thereabouts.
SUGGESTED BET: Lady In Pink each-way.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Poifect $16 – $12.
RACE 9: 5.15PM GROUP 1 CAULFIELD CUP (2400m)
Even edition of the Caulfield Cup but DENY KNOWLEDGE (15) impressed when leading throughout at Caulfield last Saturday and drops 6.5kg for this. MURAMASA (12) will be fitter for two runs in and should have every chance from the draw. BUCKAROO (2) has been a revelation this time in and should go close again. POSITIVITY (17) has raced well in Melbourne and is another lightweight chance.
SUGGESTED BET: Deny Knowledge to win/box trifecta 2, 12, 15, 17.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Duke De Sessa $23 – $18.
RACE 10: 5.50PM GROUP 3 MOONGA STAKES (1400m)
Interesting race to finish but GENTLEMAN ROY (2) looks nicely in at the weights and won a Group 2 race over this course two runs back. WAR MACHINE (1) is lightly-raced but talented enough to measure up to this after a good first-up effort. WA galloper RIPCORD (8) is up in trip after a promising Melbourne debut at Flemington. PINSTRIPED (1) pulled up with a problem after the Makybe Diva Stakes but can threaten if he is right.
SUGGESTED BET: Gentleman Roy to win.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Pinstriped $4.50 – $3.80.
Originally published as Best bets and value play for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup Day meeting
Damien Oliver’s Caulfield Cup tips: Why the start holds the key
Legendary jockey Damien Oliver thinks Buckaroo is the key form horse leading into Saturday’s Group 1 Caulfield Cup … but he’ll have his fingers crossed as the horses jump. Get Ollie’s inside mail on Saturday’s $5 million feature.
Endresz reveals he nearly died after heart attack scare
Alligator Blood’s former owner Allan Endresz was only minutes away from death when he had a massive heart attack last week, but a split-second decision saved his life.