Damien Oliver’s 2024 Caulfield Cup tips: Why the start holds the key

Legendary jockey Damien Oliver thinks Buckaroo is the key form horse leading into Saturday’s Group 1 Caulfield Cup … but he’ll have his fingers crossed as the horses jump. Get Ollie’s inside mail on Saturday’s $5 million feature.

If, like me, you are a fan of Buckaroo in Saturday’s Caulfield Cup, keep your fingers crossed at the start.

The emerging import ticks just about every box, but his tendency to be slowly away at his past two starts – as good as they have both been – is a concern in a big field.

The Caulfield Cup was a great race to me, but in all four of my wins I found myself in a good position around midfield.

As good as Buckaroo is going – and he is certainly THE form horse of the race – he can’t afford to get right out the back.

The tempo of the race should be good, but I’m not sure it will be frantic as some are predicting.

⭕ Buckaroo ✅
⭕ I Wish I Win ✅
⭕ Warmonger ❌

Ollie's got some strong thoughts on the Caulfield Cup & The Everest, as @Quinny_1 found out 😏 pic.twitter.com/BJ1WArKd0q

— Ladbrokes.com.au (@ladbrokescomau) October 17, 2024

• Clinton Payne’s Caulfield Cup tips, runner-by-runner form analysis

Yes, Deny Knowledge will cross from the wide draw (barrier 14 if the emergencies come out), but she won’t be as fresh and fizzy backing-up within in seven days and with “Froggy” (Craig Newitt) on I’m tipping a more controlled tempo, building from the 1000m or 800m.

That would give Deny Knowledge a change of figuring right in the finish and also bring Eliyass right into it.

From the outside draw, Eliyass will look to come across with Deny Knowledge, but he’ll need the leader to settle to be able to do that and be a threat at the finish.

Duke De Sessa is another major player. I’ve liked his lead-up form, he’s well weighted and should get a perfect run from the nice draw.

Don’t sell short the form through the Metropolitan in Sydney a couple of weeks back – Land Legend and Zardozi cleared right out from the rest. It’s a plus they’ve both had that run at 2400m and they are well weighted, too.

It doesn’t surprise me there’s been strong support for the European Sayedaty Sadaty. I went back and had a look at his form and it’s good. He somehow got crowded for a bit of room in the four-horse field at Goodwood last time and ran well behind the Melbourne Cup favourite (Jan Brueghel).

He’s a European three-year-old with just 50kgs and we’ve seen before how dangerous they can be in our best staying races.

• Early Oil: Brad Waters’ tips, analysis for all 10 races at Caulfield on Saturday

Huetor and Positivity round out my main chances. Forgive Huetor on the wet and hope we don’t get too much rain before Saturday. I liked the Underwood run behind Buckaroo.

Positivity has been running well in the right form races and has no weight.

Warmonger was a long-time favourite, but I’m not sure about him. He’ll need the rain to come to have any chance for mine.

And for those playing in The Everest at Randwick, I’d like to be on I Wish I Win. He loves the Randwick 1200m and I like the way he’s been building towards the big one.

• Waller to enjoy a Buck’s party in Saturday’s Caulfield Cup

DAMIEN OLIVER’S CAULFIELD CUP TIPS
Top pick: Buckaroo
Value: Sayedaty Sadaty
Roughie: Duke De Sessa

Originally published as Damien Oliver’s 2024 Caulfield Cup tips: Why the start holds the key