Graham Cornes: West Lakes ‘exodus’? Don’t believe the doom and gloom around the Crows, good times are on horizon
Don’t believe all the negativity swirling around the Crows. ‘Rejuvenation’ is in the air and there’s ample reason for optimism, writes Graham Cornes.
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Never has there been so much negativity surrounding the Crows. Never has there been so much pessimism about their prospects in the coming season.
The continuous narrative about the players who are leaving and those who are simply rumoured to be leaving has reached a crescendo of discontent. Is it a reality, or is it simply mischievous hype?
Have faith, Crows fans. It’s not as bad as it is being portrayed. Besides, bottoming out to harvest early draft picks has never been an option for the Adelaide Football Club.
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Football has changed so dramatically in the past five years. The once-cherished concept of club loyalty has all but evaporated. Rory Sloane, in his poignant farewell speech to departing players at the club champion awards night, explained it well.
And it’s not just at the struggling clubs that players want new opportunities and more money.
Last week Brandon Ellis played in a premiership for Richmond. This week he is chasing bigger money and better terms at a rival club.
Still, there is no doubt that a couple of players want out of Adelaide for other reasons. Eddie Betts and his family want to move back to Carlton.
Josh Jenkins has virtually said he will play for anyone.
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Sadly, both players have played their best football for the Crows — but they are still under contract next year so the negotiations, which are complicated by the size of their salaries, have to be handled delicately. Much will depend on whether they are prepared to take a drop in salary or if Adelaide will pay a portion of their salary at the new club.
The other Crows who are listed as leaving would undoubtedly stay if Adelaide is prepared to match the offers they are receiving from other clubs. But responsible list management requires tough decisions on popular players.
Everyone loves Sam Jacobs but as a free agent he has been offered a two-year deal and an option for a third year at GWS. The Crows no longer see him as a long-term prospect and won’t match the offer. He goes with the club’s blessing and the goodwill of anyone who has ever had the pleasure of meeting him. Hopefully the move to the Crows of the highly regarded Port big man, Billy Frampton, will eventuate.
Alex Keath, Cam Ellis-Yolmen and Hugh Greenwood have both been offered incredible long-term deals at rival clubs — Keath at the Bulldogs, Ellis-Yolmen at Brisbane and Greenwood at the Gold Coast Suns.
The Crows were not prepared to offer any more than a two-year contract to the mature-age players. While Ellis-Yolmen and Greenwood have shown great attributes in recent years, they haven’t been able to put their selections beyond doubt and have been in and out of the team. They are chasing bigger money and greater opportunities. In this climate, who would blame them?
The player Crows fans will be most sorry to see go is Alex Keath but he’ll be 28 in January and has played only 30 games. It would be irresponsible to offer him a four-year contract on big money as the Bulldogs apparently have.
The players’ managers sometimes have unrealistic opinions of their players’ values but the Crows will not blink on these contract negotiations.
So with retirements, delistings and other players still being courted by rival clubs, the Crows might need to replace up to 25 percent of their playing roster in 2020. After a well- orchestrated charge to a flag in 2017 and the disappointments of 2018 and 2019, the cynics are predicting further years of mediocrity.
Club chairman Rob Chapman tried to hose down any negativity in his speech at the club champion awards on Thursday night. He spoke of having “exciting times ahead”, of having “a clear blueprint” to “transition” into a new era.
He also spoke the word that is clearly the club mantra for 2020. “Rejuvenate!” I like it. Don’t let anyone say they are “rebuilding”. It’s a cop-out for poor performances and cellar-dweller basket cases. “Rejuvenate” is a much more vital word and inspires confidence and an optimism that success is not that far around the corner.
However, with a club review still ongoing and the announcement of the new coach possibly still weeks away, Chapman’s speech remained short on detail.
The haters have been hostile towards the club throughout most of this year and given the performances there was some justification for that.
Despite the critics, the club still has the basis of a solid playing list. The defence is still elite. The midfield lacks explosive pace but contains four All-Australian players. The forward line, which depends so much on supply can still be dangerous. Reilly O’Brien was the most improved ruckman in the competition when he finally got his chance to play.
There is no doubt the Crows will approach the next two drafts aggressively with a view to bolstering what is already a solid line-up. With the continued development of young players who will now get greater opportunity, the team should be strong enough to compete fiercely. It’s not that difficult. A new coach will, without doubt, bring a shift in attitude. A playing group that has been inhibited and constrained by its collective doubts and fear of failing always finds a new lease on life with a new coach.
Assuming he is tactically sound, the new coach’s main task will be to inspire the team to play positive, disciplined, pro-active football.
Then there’s the draft and the trade period. One of the lesser-known facts about the Crows’ recruiting team and list management is the statistical modeling that it has introduced in recent years.
“Player analytics” is a powerful statistical program that the club has introduced under Binuk Koditawakku, a Western Australian with a legal background and a history of working with these models in American sports. It’s the type of program made famous by the movie “Moneyball” and while the results haven’t yet been obvious, the potential of Chayce Jones and Ned McHenry is evident.
Tyson Stengle did debut for the Crows last season and the intel from the program helped to bring the club its highest draft pick in that much scrutinised Carlton/Liam Stocker draft pick exchange.
Had it not been for the extraordinary aid package the AFL granted to the Gold Coast Suns, that pick would have been No. 3 — a win by any standards. Combined with the football nous and intuition of its recruiting team the player analytics modeling should give the club an advantage with its aggressive approach to the draft.
The critics are allowed to have their mischievous fun but the Crows are nowhere near as bad as is being portrayed.
The pessimism, the ridicule, the doom and the gloom will all disappear when the new coach and his team comes on board and the impact of innovative recruiting takes effect.
Have faith.
Originally published as Graham Cornes: West Lakes ‘exodus’? Don’t believe the doom and gloom around the Crows, good times are on horizon