The stunning stat behind the NFL’s new Super Bowl favourite: NFL Week 12 preview

There’s one standout stat behind the NFL’s new Super Bowl favourite: will they continue to dominate heading into Week 12?

Week 11 of NFL saw the Dallas Cowboys Stadium perfectly reflect the team it houses by quite literally falling apart, a classic Steelers-Ravens arm-wrestle, and it also saw the Kansas City Chiefs lose to Buffalo, breaking a 15-game win streak that stretched all the way back to Wham’s favourite day - last Christmas.

Most remarkably, it also gave us a new Super Bowl favourite.

Yes, for the first time in history, the Detroit Lions – a franchise best known for ineptitude, winless seasons, disappointing their fans on Thanksgiving and being on Tim Allen’s T-shirts when he was starring in ‘Home Improvement’ – are favourites to win the Super Bowl.

Detroit (9-1) has also now won eight games straight and nine of its first 10 games for the first time in the NFL-era and before World War 2 (1934, to be exact) and quarterback Jared Goff – a week after throwing five interceptions – is third-favourite to win MVP.

The #Lions are the new favorites to win Super Bowl LIX 🏆🦁 pic.twitter.com/xP4KVw1ypw

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 19, 2024

The Lions are now on top of the NFC and favourites for the Super Bowl thanks to numerous things – including its elite passing defence – but one simple stat stands out.

They’ve scored the most points of any team in the NFL.

With 336 points so far, Detroit is averaging an absurd 33.6 points a game.

That’s ranked 15th all-time, and the most since the 2018 Chiefs.

Detroit is also only the fourth team EVER to score 52+ points in consecutive home games, and only the third team in the Super Bowl-era with three 35+ point wins in the opening 10 games of a season.

So yeah. Detroit is flying.

As such, the Super Bowl odds currently have the Lions slightly favoured ahead of the Lions and Buffalo, with Philly and Baltimore rounding out the top 5. Those five teams all sit in the top 7 of DVOA as well, with Minnesota and San Francisco the two teams DVOA currently likes ahead of their Super Bowl odds.

With the Dallas Cowboys season, stadium and Jerry Jones’ hopes and dreams of another Super Bowl falling apart, there was also turmoil in New York, with the Giants benching their $160M QB Daniel Jones in favour of Tommy DeVito and the Jets fired their GM Joe Douglas.

Because when faced with the choice of a malcontent 40-year-old QB who hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2020 season and the guy who drafted Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner, Breece Hall, Will McDonald, Braelon Allen, Jermaine Johnson and Michael Carter II, obviously smart franchises side with… the 40-yo malcontent QB?

Amazingly, despite that 52-6 head-kicking at the hands of the Lions that saw the Jacksonville Jaguars slip to 2-9 and the very bottom of the AFC, head coach Doug Pederson still has a job, while another embarrassing home capitulation wasn’t enough for Jerry Jones to move on from Mike McCarthy.

Anyway, elsewhere, the playoff race in both the AFC and NFC getting heated: at the top Kansas City (9-1) is now being challenged for the AFC’s #1 seed by Buffalo (9-2) and Pittsburgh (8-2), and the Eagles (8-2) and Vikings (8-2) pushing the Lions hard in the AFC.

In the remaining playoff slots, the surprising Denver Broncos will spend the rest of the season trying to fend off the Colts and resurgent Dolphins (and perhaps the Bengals).

The bottom half of the NFC hinges on the divisional races in the NFC West and South, with the Cardinals and Falcons currently the three and four-seeds by virtue of leading their respective divisions, but that could change with the Rams, Niners and Seahawks trailing the Cards by a win, and the Falcons being flakier than plans with an unreliable mate.

Following a Week 11 that saw some lopsided results – favourites are still winning at a 53% clip across the season, while total point over-unders remain almost even, with overs hitting at 51.5% and unders at 48,5% for the year.

It means that Week 12 is shaping up as a defining round and it offers up a fascinating slate of games, with an interesting divisional matchup for Thursday Night Football between AFC North foes Pittsburgh and Cleveland doing battle.

There’s also the Niners staring at a season-defining game against Green Bay in a repeat of last year’s Divisional Round playoff game, while the Eagles visit the LA Rams in a huge Sunday Night Football matchup, while the Chargers host the Ravens in a mega AFC tilt.

As for the Aussie NFL players, Jordan Mailiata of the Eagles returned last week from injury, Baltimore’s Daniel Faalele has been growing in confidence, while the bevy of Aussie punters – Mitch Wishnowsky, Michael Dickson, Matthew Hayball and Tory Taylor – are all having excellent seasons.

Aussie NFL fans have a terrific Week 12 slate to dig into, so watch the NFL Straya breakdown above to see who should win and why.

Will Kansas City take out some frustration on Carolina?

Do the Commanders bounce-back from two straight losses with a win over their hated rival Cowboys?

Can Green Bay further ruin the Niners season from hell?

Will the Rams-Eagles and Ravens-Chargers prime time games deliver the goods!?

Find out with NFL Straya’s NFL Week 12 preview and in the breakdown above.

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NFL WEEK 12 SCHEDULE

FRIDAY 12.15am AEDT

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

MONDAY 5am AEDT

Minnesota @ Chicago

Detroit @ Indianapolis

New England @ Miami

Tampa Bay @ NY Giants

Dallas @ Washington

Kansas City @ Carolina

Tennessee @ Houston

MONDAY 8.05am AEDT

Denver @ Las Vegas

MONDAY 8.25am AEDT

San Francisco @ Green Bay

Arizona @ Seattle

MONDAY 12.20pm AEDT

Philadelphia @ LA Rams

TUESDAY 12.15pm AEDT

Baltimore @ LA Chargers

Byes: Atl, Buff, Cinc, NO, NYJ, Jacksonville

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Originally published as The stunning stat behind the NFL’s new Super Bowl favourite: NFL Week 12 preview