Who’s the new Super Bowl favourite trying to flip decades of futility? NFL Week 16 preview

With three weeks left in the NFL season, there’s a new Super Bowl favourite: with a longtime nemesis injured, can it turn around years and years of losing?

After a wild Week 15 and a massive injury blow dealt to the reigning champs, this might just be the most wide-open NFL season fans have seen in a while… and as a result, once again this season, there’s a new Super Bowl favourite and another that has leapt dramatically to the fore.

Since Josh Allen got engaged to Hailee Steinfeld, the quarterback has been on a tear to end all tears – throwing for 852 passing yards and 7 TDs, while ALSO ripping off 168 yards on the ground to go with a further 6 rushing TDs… all with no INTs thrown! – to cement his MVP favouritism.

Never a doubt‼️https://t.co/Vl8gXcXhG6 | #BillsMafiapic.twitter.com/lyeCaaTKe0

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 18, 2024

As a result, his Buffalo Bills – the moribund franchise that lost four straight Super Bowls back at the start of the ‘90s and hasn’t been back since – have leapt ahead of the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs to the top of the Super Bowl odds. Even with a defence that has given up 44 and 42 points the past two weeks, the Bills offence has scored a remarkable 30+ points in eight straight weeks… equalling the all-time NFL record.

They now have a chance of surpassing the 2000 Rams, 2007 Patriots, 2010 Patriots and 2013 Broncos and put up a ninth straight 30+ game as this weekend they go up against a New England Patriots team that’s given up 30+ five times this season.

With Patrick Mahomes suffering a high ankle sprain - which has been declared ‘mild’ and reportedly the back-to-back champion QB will try to play this week - and Buffalo 0-3 against Mahomes in the playoffs, is this the Bills best chance at getting their first ever Super Bowl win?

Behind the Bills in Super Bowl favouritism sit the Philadelphia Eagles, suddenly the most complete team in the NFC with a dominant defence that’s allowing the fewest points (17.6) AND yards per game (275.6 - 21.8 less than the 2nd placed Titans) in the league.

On offence, the Eagles are also still scoring the 9th most points a game and gaining the 6th most yards in the league, meaning they’re ranked 5th overall in DVOA.

Not a bad profile.

But with three weeks left in the NFL season – and KC, Baltimore and Houston hitting a brutal stretch of 3 games in 10 days – big questions remain about just about all the remaining teams.

Four teams. Two doubleheaders.

See the @HoustonTexans, @Chiefs, @steelers and @ravens face off in the NFL Holiday Remix starting this Saturday! pic.twitter.com/qNr4BROM8N

— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2024

With three divisions sown up – the AFC East, West and South – but three teams at the top of the NFC tied at 12-2 and the AFC 1-seed still up for grabs – this is where the playoff seed jostling really begins and every result from here on out with have mammoth repercussions.

13-1 Kansas City is dealing with an ankle injury to Patrick Mahomes and seemingly can’t score anyway, with its offence amazingly not going above 30 points all year.

Detroit were the Super Bowl favourites, but its defence had already been decimated by injury… and lost a further THREE defensive players last week.

Baltimore’s offence behind Lamar Jackson – who threw more TDs (5) than incompletions last week (4) – is still singing like a combination of Adele and Whitney Houston, but is the only wannabe contender with a bottom-10 defence.

The two sneaky teams that might be legit and hiding in plain sight, however, are the NFC North pairing of Minnesota (12-2) and Green Bay (10-3).

With Detroit faltering last week and battling the injury bug, the Vikings will like their chances to not only win the NFC North, but if Philly drop another game, they could even snag the No. 1 seed.

Likewise, Green Bay might be the most dangerous team on both sides of the ball outside of Philly and Minnesota: the Packers are ranked 3rd in DVOA and exactly no one will want to face them in the playoffs.

That those two teams are outside the top 5 of Super Bowl favourites feels like an oversight.

Further down the playoff equations, seeding is still to be determined across the board, but in the AFC the playoff teams are all but locked in: KC, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Houston, Baltimore, Denver and the LA Chargers, with LA having a two-game gap over the Colts and Dolphins.

In the NFC it gets a lot murkier, with Tampa Bay (8-6) on top of the NFC South, Atlanta (7-7) remains a slight chance but have also just benched veteran QB Kirk ‘Oh shoot’ Cousins in favour of rookie Michael Penix, while both the LA Rams and Seattle Seahawks tied atop the NFC West at 8-6, while Arizona is still lurking at 7-7.

Essentially, the NFC has four playoff teams already locked – Detroit, Minnesota, Green Bay and Philadelphia – and another six teams – Washington, who look locked in, along with the Rams, Seahawks, Bucs, Falcons and Cardinals – all vying for three playoff spots.

Chaos!

As for other trends, following a wild Week 15 that delivered some chalk results – favourites are winning at a 52.5% clip across the season, while total point over-unders remain slightly slanted towards the over, hitting at 52.3% for the year.

With the season now hitting its crescendo and seven teams already eliminated from playoff contention and another seven likely out of the running as well, Week 15 is the start of legitimate fighting for playoff seeding.

As for the Aussie NFL players, Seahawks punter Michael Dickson wowed fans with his ‘Australian kick’, while fellow punters Matthew Hayball and Tory Taylor are doing great work, and Mitch Wishnowsky and Cam Johnston on IR.

In fact, one of the best stats to track this season has been Taylor’s punting: after being told he wouldn’t have to punt too much, Taylor has more punting yards (3,209) than his quarterback Caleb Williams has passing yards (2,937).

Meanwhile, both Jordan Mailiata of the Eagles and Baltimore’s Daniel Faalele have been instrumental in helping their superstar running backs – Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry respectively – become the NFL’s top two leaders in rushing yards.

With games on Friday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday this week as the NFL ramps up for their new Christmas games, Aussie NFL fans have an absolute glut of football to dig into.

In fact, Week 17 begins on Boxing Day, so fans will also have games the following Thursday, Friday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, with games on nine of the 12 days until the calendar hits 2025.

It’s a Merry Christmas indeed for NFL fans!

So, watch the NFL Straya breakdown of Week 16 above to see who should win and why.

If you're not in the Playoff hunt, you're utter butt 😓

Week 16 #NFL Power Rankings: Part 1! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/GrDZ8UqZ9E

— NFL Straya (@NflStraya) December 18, 2024

Can the Chargers get their season back on track against the Broncos on Friday?

Does Patrick Mahomes’ injury put a dent in Kansas City’s three-peat chances?

Can Baltimore overcome Pittsburgh and try to steal back the AFC North?

Will Minnesota and Seattle deliver fireworks?

Can Tampa Bay keep up its run to the NFC South title against Dallas?

It’s a massive week ahead, So find out with NFL Straya’s NFL Week 16 preview and in the breakdown above.

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NFL WEEK 16 SCHEDULE

FRIDAY DEC 20 12.15pm AEDT

Denver @ LA Chargers

SUNDAY DEC 22 5am AEDT

Houston.@ Kansas City

SUNDAY DEC 22 8.30am AEDT

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

MONDAY DEC 23 5am AEDT

NY Giants @ Atlanta

Detroit @ Chicago

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Tennessee @ Indianapolis

LA Rams @ NY Jets

Philly @ Washington

Arizona @ Carolina

MONDAY DEC 23 8.05am AEDT

Minnesota @ Seattle

MONDAY DEC 23 8.25am AEDT

New England @ Buffalo

Jacksonville @ Las Vegas

San Francisco @ Miami

MONDAY DEC 23 12.20pm AEDT

Tampa Bay @ Dallas

TUESDAY DEC 24 12.20pm AEDT

New Orleans @ Green Bay

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