Wreck it Ralph: Your club’s hits and misses from trading top 10 picks in the past decade
Richmond have copped some heat for the Tim Taranto deal, however the last time they made a swing like that, it worked. Check out every club’s hits and misses when trading top 10 picks.
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In AFL list management there is no riskier move than trading a top-10 pick to a rival club.
The benefits are club-defining and the downside is immense, especially if that selection is a future pick that could leave your club with egg on its face.
Wreck It Ralph delved into the last 10 drafts to analyse every trade that involved a player and a top-10 pick.
It should come as no surprise that Richmond, Geelong, Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs nailed calls that delivered them premierships.
Remarkably, Collingwood’s pick swap with West Coast delivered the Eagles a midfielder called Dom Sheed who delivered the Pies agonising grand final pain.
Here are the winners and losers from your club’s trades involving top-10 picks since the 2013 national draft.
ADELAIDE
The Crows’ most recent decision to hand over a top-five selection looks a masterstroke.
The critics wondered if Izak Rankine playing in the pressurised environment of his home town would suit him, but trading pick 5 (and a swap of later picks) already looks a steal given he is only 23 years of age.
In the 2017 trade period the Demons handed over pick 10 and a 2018 first-rounder for Jake Lever and Adelaide’s pick 35.
It was an excellent haul but the Crows then gave up the king’s ransom for Carlton’s Bryce Gibbs. They handed over 10, 16 and a future second-rounder for Gibbs, Carlton’s 2018 second-rounder and Carlton’s 2018 third-rounder.
Carlton finished last, which helped, but Gibbs played just 37 games in Adelaide colours.
Similarly in 2015 the Crows did brilliantly to extract maximum compensation when free agent Patrick Dangerfield departed in a trade – pick 9 (Wayne Milera), 28 and Dean Gore – but eight years in the injury-prone Milera has played only 81 games.
RATING: The Crows executed the right deals but the failure of Gibbs and Milera to fire significantly slowed the rebuild.
BRISBANE LIONS
If you are going to give up a top-10 pick you can only hope they turn into a Brownlow Medallist and captain.
It is exactly what happened when the Lions handed over picks 6, 19 and 55 for Fremantle’s Lachie Neale and pick 30 (which shuffled back and turned into Tom Berry).
If they win a flag it could be Neale holding up the premiership cup – and winning the Norm Smith Medal.
If they kept that pick Connor Rozee and Ben King were available, but when Neale wants to come to your club you don’t say no.
In 2014 the Lions gave up picks 5, 25 and Jack Crisp for Dayne Beams and pick 67.
Pick five became Jordan De Goey and while Beams played only 58 games for the Lions he was their skipper and they got back 18 and a future first-rounder when he left.
It wasn’t a top-10 pick but the Lions’ decision to give up pick 12 for Charlie Cameron in 2017 was a masterstroke.
RATING: Excellent return for the Lions but the sliding doors moment – how good would Crisp have been if he had stayed at Brisbane?
CARLTON
Carlton is finally beginning to reap rewards from big trade investments after some poor returns handing over very early selections.
In 2021 the Blues gave up pick 6 (which turned into pick 8, Jye Amiss) and a 2022 third-rounder for Adam Cerra.
It continued a theme from the previous year when they handed pick 8 (which became pick 10, Zach Reid) and a 2022 third-rounder to Essendon for Adam Saad.
Saad is an out-and-out star and Cerra could be.
In 2017 they got back 10, 16 and a future second-rounder for Gibbs, their 2018 second-rounder and 2018 third-rounder.
It was a great haul but pick 10 became Lochie O’Brien, they traded pick 16 (which became Ed Richards) and they separately took Paddy Dow with pick 3 in the same year.
In 2014 they gave up pick 7 for Kristian Jaksch, Mark Whiley and pick 19. And took Blaine Boekhorst with pick 19.
RATING: Saad is still only 28 and Cerra 23 so the Blues’ middling record on trading early picks could turn into a win if that pair can play in a flag. But that looks a long way off right now.
COLLINGWOOD
The Pies would like their time over with two of the three trades involving top-10 picks, even if one has a silver lining.
In 2020 they traded their 2021 first-round pick to the Giants in exchange for picks 24 and 30, plus a 2021 fourth-round pick.
It was all in pursuit of extra points for a Nick Daicos bid, but by finishing second-last they gave the Giants the overall No. 2 pick.
Pies fans won’t care – they have Nick Daicos. But imagine if the Pies had a Daicos-Finn Callaghan draft double act, or even Daicos-Josh Rachele.
When Dayne Beams moved north they secured picks 5, 25 and Jack Crisp for the Pies mid and pick 67.
Pick 5 became Jordan De Goey and Crisp has 190 mostly excellent games for the Pies.
But they traded two late first-rounders back for Beams four years later, the second of which could have been used for Mitch Georgiades (pick 18) or Sam De Koning, taken with pick 19.
In 2013 Collingwood gave up pick 11 (the Dale Thomas free agency compensation), 31 and 49 to trade up to pick 6 (Matt Scharenberg) with West Coast.
West Coast used pick 11 on a player called Dom Sheed, who would break Collingwood hearts five years later.
RATING: The Beams deal could have been a trade heist if they had decided against luring him back. And while the Daicos points swap decision hurts, a team that had played finals the previous three seasons could never have believed they would fall to 17th the next year.
ESSENDON
To secure Dylan Shiel the Dons gave up pick 9 (Jye Caldwell), a 2019 first-rounder (which became pick 14, Miles Bergman) and got back a 2019 future second-rounder from GWS which they on-traded.
Shiel improves by the year but the Dons need finals success to make it a win-win deal.
In 2015 when they secured pick 5 for Jake Carlisle (and gave up pick 14) that selection shuffled back to pick 6 and they used it on Aaron Francis.
It is the Essendon conundrum – did Francis fail through coaching, development, culture or a combination of those reasons?
In 2017 they gave up pick 11 and a third-rounder for Devon Smith, pick 25 and a 2018 second-rounder and got Jake Stringer for the cheap price of that pick 25 and pick 30.
Stringer’s career has been a rollercoaster but if the Dons eventually win a final you suspect he will be the one turning the game.
RATING: Shiel’s best is exceptional (he was second in the Crichton Medal in his first year at Essendon) but he finished only equal ninth from 19 games last year. Essendon has made bold moves but they are yet to fully pay off.
FREMANTLE
You can make plenty of mistakes and still come out a winner if you secure pick 2 for Lachie Weller (and pick 41) and turn it into Andrew Brayshaw.
That was Fremantle’s free hit in 2017, but the overall record is a mixed bag.
In 2018 the Dockers gave up Lachie Neale for pick 6 in a larger package, but instead of taking Ben King they wanted a ready-made forward so handed GWS picks 6 and 23 for Jesse Hogan. He played only 19 games at the Dockers.
In 2016 they gave up pick 3 for Cam McCarthy but got back 7 (which became Griffin Logue) plus 34 and 72.
McCarthy lasted only four years and played only 49 games.
RATING: The search for a key forward led the Dockers to overpaying for two players who never realised their potential, but Brayshaw should be a 300-game captain.
GEELONG
Let’s face it, the Cats smashed it out of the park.
Last year they won the Jack Bowes sweepstakes by giving up a future third-rounder for Bowes and pick 7 in a Suns salary dump (and turned that pick into Jhye Clark).
In 2015 they didn’t flinch on free agent Patrick Dangerfield and gave up picks 9, 28 and Dean Gore, who didn’t play an AFL game for the Crows.
They weren’t top 10 picks, but the Cats gave up picks 13, 15 and 20 for Jeremy Cameron (and got two second-rounders back) and while they didn’t get him as a free agent they have the most dominant player in the game.
RATING: No body does it better. Which is why they are the reigning premiers.
GOLD COAST
The Suns are playing with one hand tied behind their back in the list space given their retention challenges, which explains many of the decisions that on face value looks strange.
They did everything right with Izak Rankine last year but he still left, yet with that pick 6 they turned it into Bailey Humphrey, who looks like he could be anything.
They saved $1.6 million in cap space by shedding pick 7 along with Jack Bowes, and while it looks ridiculous if they can use that space to re-sign Ben King over summer it will be worth every penny.
In 2018 when they lost their co-captain in Steven May they turned it into King, who says he wants to play out his career at the Suns.
And while they gave up pick 2 for Queensland-raised Lachie Weller and pick 41, he is six years into what should be a 12-year career at the Suns and gives a touch of class off half-back and wing.
RATING: Tough decisions forced upon them but the Suns would say they extracted 10-year players from unenviable situations.
GWS GIANTS
The Giants have had so many top-10 picks that they have been able to play fast and loose where others guard them like precious gemstones.
Last year they traded up to get the No. 1 overall pick for Aaron Cadman (giving up pick 3 plus pick 12 from the Tim Taranto trade), even though he would likely have fallen to their selection anyway.
They could do so in part because they had secured Finn Callaghan in a spectacular trade with the Pies the previous year that netted them the No. 2 overall pick as Collingwood tried to secure points for Nick Daicos.
This year they have the Tigers’ pick (currently No. 6) as part of the Jacob Hopper trade, which looks advantageous for GWS.
In 2013 they gave up pick 9 (Christian Salem), Dom Tyson and pick 53 for pick 2 (Josh Kelly), 20 and 72. Given the Dees used the later pick on Jayden Hunt (it shuffled to 57), that trade now looks very much win-win.
In 2014 they gave up Tom Boyd for Ryan Griffen (55 games at GWS) and Caleb Marchbank, while also giving up Kristian Jaksch, Mark Wiley and pick 19 for pick 7, who they used on Paul Ahern.
RATING: It’s been a decidedly mixed bag but if Callaghan and Cadman turn into 15-year players the future is bright.
HAWTHORN
In 2016 the Hawks gave up the king’s ransom for Jaeger O’Meara in a spectacularly complicated deal which involved pick 10 plus a future first-rounder which became pick 7 (Hunter Clark).
The reasoning was sound but O’Meara never played in a winning final and they are currently paying some of his salary to play elsewhere.
The Chad Wingard trade hasn’t paid off either but the highest pick used was No. 15 (Xavier Duursma) along with 35 and Ryan Burton.
RATING: The Hawks went all in to top up after the three-peat and then were forced into a massive rebuild, so hindsight shows it was a considerable error.
MELBOURNE
The Demons are sneaky good at this stuff, combining canny trading with exceptional recruiting with early selections and back-end picks.
In 2019 they had pick 8, which they turned into pick 10 and 28. Pick 10 pushed back to 12 (Kozzie Pickett) and 28 turned into 32 (Trent Rivers).
In 2018 they traded Jesse Hogan for pick 6 and turned it into brilliant All-Australian defender Steven May (plus Kade Kolodjashnij).
In 2017 they traded pick 10 and a 2018 first-round selection for Jake Lever and pick 35.
The 2018 first-rounder was used for Carlton’s Liam Stocker (pick 19) and Melbourne used pick 35 on Harrison Petty.
So for pick 10 and pick 19 they got premiership players Jake Lever and Harrison Petty, who is still only 23.
In 2015 they turned pick 6 and a future first-rounder into selections 3 and 10. Pick 3 turned into a red-headed kid called Clayton Oliver, and while they eventually used pick 9 on Sam Weideman (now at Essendon), Oliver will play 300 games as a Demons premiership hero.
The 2013 trade that saw them give up pick 2 (Josh Kelly), 20 and 72 for pick 9 (Christian Salem), Dom Tyson, pick 53 (Jayden Hunt) isn’t far from a win-win.
RATING: Just brilliant.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Like Gold Coast, the Roos have been forced into difficult choices.
Forced to trade No. 1 overall pick Jason Horne-Francis, they at least got picks 2, 3, 40 and 42 and Port’s first-rounder this season.
Harry Sheezel is a jet and George Wardlaw should debut this week. Both should play at the Roos for 12-15 years, and Horne-Francis would have left this year if they didn’t trade him last October.
In 2018 the Roos knew their pick 11 would be swallowed up by a bid on NGA prospect Tarryn Thomas, so they traded 11 and a fourth-rounder for Jared Polec, Jasper Pittard and pick 48.
It was a disastrous deal, even if it didn’t strictly involve a top 10 pick.
RATING: Let’s focus on the positives. Given what Jason Horne-Francis has said about his homesickness he was going to leave at some stage. As the Roos unwrap the gift that is Wardlaw at least they have maximised their assets from a bad situation.
PORT ADELAIDE
The Jason-Horne Francis deal gets better by the week.
The Roos traded pick 8 plus future first and second-rounders in the mega-deal that got them Horne-Francis and Junior Rioli.
Those 2023 picks are currently sitting at 15 and 33 given the Power’s strong showing this year, and Horne-Francis could be a generational talent.
In 2019 they traded pick 10, Dougal Howard and Paddy Ryder for pick 12, 18 and a Saints third-rounder.
They effectively turned those early picks into Miles Bergman (pick 14) and Mitch Georgiades, after creeping up the order from pick 18 with another pick swap for the Georgiades selection.
Now comes the task of keeping both those uncontracted rising stars.
In 2015 they gave up pick 10 and a second-rounder for Charlie Dixon, and he has given eight years of service and 135 games, so that is a win.
RATING: An extremely strong showing given every time they have given up a top-10 pick they have turned it into a bigger return, including the Chad Wingard trade.
RICHMOND
Richmond would tell the Tim Taranto naysayers that their last bold deal of a similar value only harnessed them three flags.
In 2016 they gave up pick 6 and 24 for Dion Prestia. They traded 24 for Josh Caddy and got pick 56 back. Pick 56 turned into Jack Graham, who took down Rory Sloane in a brilliant 2017 grand final performance.
In that same year they traded pick 44 for Toby Nankervis and turned a Ty Vickery compensation pick into Shai Bolton.
Their trade of pick 12 and 19 for Tim Taranto doesn’t involve top-10 picks but while he is scrappy by foot he provides everything they want in their game style – territory gains, huge pressure numbers, elite two-way running, the kind of clearance stats that allow them to minimise their rivals’ clearance dominance.
But Richmond needs to rise up the ladder to ensure the Jacob Hopper trade is more balanced, because currently they are giving up this year’s pick 6 and last year’s 31 for 53 and 63.
RATING: A dynasty-defining investment that will look much better on the Hopper front if they make a finals charge.
ST KILDA
St Kilda has only two trades involving a top-10 pick in the past decade, and both of them are complicated.
In 2019 they gave up pick 10, Blake Acres and three more picks to get Brad Hill and a 2020 third-rounder.
They paid Hill a bucketload of cash and while he is playing very well this year, players available in that 2019 draft with that pick (which shuffled back to 12) included Kozzie Pickett (taken at pick 12), Will Day, Miles Bergman and Cody Weightman.
In 2015 they gave up pick 5 for key back Jake Carlisle, who immediately found himself in a white powder controversy.
He played 66 games at St Kilda but more to the point the Saints also secured pick 14 from Essendon and used it on Jade Gresham, who is still going strong.
RATING: The Gresham-Carlisle trade is a win (especially given Essendon used that pick on Aaron Francis) but St Kilda paid too much for Hill from a picks and salary perspective.
SYDNEY
Sydney’s retention challenges, regular finals finishes and massive wage for Lance Franklin means they haven’t traded a top 10 pick in the past decade.
WEST COAST
Last year the Eagles turned the overall No. 2 pick (which was eventually used on Harry Sheezel, pick 3) for pick 8, 12 and Port Adelaide’s second and third-rounders this year.
They also gave back pick 40.
So far homegrown Reuben Ginbey (taken with that first pick) looks the equal of any of that draft crop and pick 14 Elijah Hewett saw some early senior action but is now out with an ankle.
For the Eagles it is hard to argue with the rationale given they believed Sheezel was a strong flight risk.
The 2019 Tim Kelly trade didn’t involve a top-10 pick but the Eagles gave up picks 14, 24 and a 2020 first-rounder (which ended up at pick 18) and got back picks 37 and 52.
History will say they paid big-time just as they were falling out of premiership contention and into a deep dark rebuild.
RATING: Limited action, with a win-win draft pick split and a big investment into Kelly. Will they split their 2023 first-rounder, currently at pick 2.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The only trade involving a top-10 pick in the past decade won the Dogs a flag.
They gave up the departing Ryan Griffen and pick 6 for Tom Boyd, and his grand final performance was one for the ages.
He played just 52 games for the Dogs and then selflessly gave up a huge contract when he retired.
The Adam Treloar trade didn’t involve a top-10 pick but the Dogs gave up pick 14 and a future pick which became 35, and got Treloar, 26, 33 and 42 back.
Given the Pies are paying a chunk of his salary it’s a superb deal.
RATING: Made the best of their captain’s departure and squeezed the Pies to get the best deal on Treloar, so could scarcely have done better.
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