Ultimate Brownlow Predictor: Check out who will poll the most votes at all 18 clubs
THE race for No. 1 won’t be the only thing to watch come Brownlow night, with bragging rights up for grabs at all 18 clubs to see who will be the top vote getter. Check out SuperFooty’s ultimate club-by-club guide here.
Brownlow
Don't miss out on the headlines from Brownlow. Followed categories will be added to My News.
TOM Mitchell won’t be the only winner on Brownlow night, with bragging rights up for grabs at all 18 clubs to see who will be the top vote getter.
In some cases, the race is so one-sided, it’s more interesting to look at who will come second.
While at other clubs, the battle to finish on top is so tight, there is literally nothing separating two players.
There is a lot to work through but fear not, we’ve done all the heavy lifting for you.
TOUGH CALL: CAN BIG MAX WIN THE BROWNLOW?
HOT TIPS: WHO THE EXPERTS LIKE IN SEPTEMBER
ALL OVER: WHY MITCHELL WILL WIN THE BROWNLOW
In SuperFooty’s Ultimate Brownlow Predictor, we’ve got every match for 2018 covered with votes and analysis as well as overall and club by club leaderboards.
Then scroll down for even more detailed insights on your team, including the key games that will decide each count and find out who is capable of causing an upset.
ADELAIDE
Winner: Matt Crouch $4.50 (TAB)
Next best: Rory Laird, Bryce Gibbs
When it hits Round 17 on Brownlow night, Matt Crouch might only have two votes to his name.
But strap in, because he is going to charge home like an absolute steam train, with 11 votes potentially coming in a four-week period.
While Crouch edging Rory Laird for top honours goes against what the bookies are saying, the final result could come down to one of the toughest games of the season to predict.
In Round 19, the Crows lost a close one to Melbourne and Clayton Oliver is the clear choice for three votes.
But from there, it gets a little murky.
No Melbourne player had more than 23 disposals and it’s tough to say how much the umpires will value Max Gawn’s 66 hit-outs and 12 touches.
Enter Crouch, who we think will swoop on the two votes after a 32 disposal and eight tackle game.
If he polls at all in this game, it will go a long way to helping him finish as the top Crow. If he doesn’t, it will be ultra-tight between him and Laird.
BRISBANE
Winner: Dayne Beams
Next best: Dayne Zorko $1.45 (TAB)
Dayne Beams cannot and will not lose this count.
But the race for second is where things get interesting. It will likely be decided between rounds 7 and 9, when Dayne Zorko was on fire. Here are his stats in that period.
Round 7: 34 disposals, four goals, 10 tackles
Round 8: 24 disposals, four goals, 18 contested possessions
Round 9: 20 disposals, one goal, 12 tackles
The spanner in the works is that the Lions only win one of those games.
Zorko needs seven votes from this stretch or else it spells trouble, with Stefan Martin and Hugh McCluggage the main dangers.
CARLTON
Winner: Patrick Cripps
Next best: Kade Simpson $1.30 (TAB)
Seeing how the umpires evaluate Patrick Cripps come Brownlow night is going to be one of the most interesting subplots to this year’s count.
Will they consistently reward a player whose team is being smashed by upwards of 10 goals and in some cases 100 points?
We have Cripps landing the three votes in four games and only one of those was a win. It doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence.
The other thing that caught our eye with the Blues is the lack of votes for Charlie Curnow. We see him as having two chances to poll.
Round 1: 19 disposals, five goals
Round 14: 19 disposals, three goals
Despite losing both games, Cripps is a lock for the three votes. Will the umpires really reward another Carlton player despite the result? If they do in Round 1, it should be Kade Simpson while plenty of Magpies were good in Round 14.
COLLINGWOOD
Winner: Brodie Grundy $1.40 (TAB)
Next best: Steele Sidebottom
There are plenty of reasons to be nervous for anyone backing Brodie Grundy to be the top Magpie.
There is no doubt his 2018 was exceptional, averaging 20.8 disposals, 38.5 hit-outs and 5.5 clearances a game, helping him book a place in the All-Australian team.
However, we also have years of history saying ruckmen don’t poll well in the Brownlow. With prolific midfielders Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury and Adam Treloar (pre-injury) all posting massive numbers and Jordan de Goey enjoying a breakout season, the umpires are going to be spoilt for choice when it comes to dishing out votes for Collingwood players.
While we have Grundy on 22 votes, Champion Data has the big Magpie on 16.
ESSENDON
Winner: Dyson Heppell $1.38 (TAB)
Next best: Zach Merrett
It’s going to be a head-to-head battle between two star Bombers to take out this count.
The case for Heppell:
We’ve got the majority of Heppell’s votes coming in either twos or threes, meaning he is an excellent chance to at least poll something in those games.
For Merrett, he has four one-vote games where he is in a dogfight with a host of other players to be recognised by the umpires.
If the whistleblowers look elsewhere a couple of times, he will be in trouble.
The case for Merrett:
We’ve got seven of Heppell’s votes coming in the first eight rounds of the season.
The Bombers went 2-6 in that time.
Will the poor results impact his ability to poll? Meanwhile, 18 of Merrett’s votes come from Round 9 onwards, when Essendon went 10-4.
The umpires will be looking to reward the Bombers and Merrett is in prime position to cash in.
FREMANTLE
Winner: Nat Fyfe $1.10 (TAB)
Next best: Lachie Neale $6
This will be a count of two halves for the Dockers.
Expect Nat Fyfe to absolutely dominate up until Round 13, where we think he will reach a whopping 20 votes. However, from then on it will be all eyes on Lachie Neale.
It could all come down to the last game of the year, where Neale is in a battle for top votes with Magpie Brodie Grundy.
Neale: 34 disposals, four tackles, one goal
Grundy: 24 disposals, 34 hit-outs, four tackles
We gave Grundy the edge in a winning side but it is tight. The Dockers only lost by nine points which is close enough for a losing player to land the three votes.
GEELONG
Winner: Patrick Dangerfield $1.60 (TAB)
Next best: Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett
At Round 16 we had Joel Selwood on a whopping 21 votes, with the skipper in prime position to take this one out.
However, Selwood is expected to pick up just two votes in the final seven rounds while Patrick Dangerfield comes home faster than Usain Bolt.
From Round 17, we expect Danger to poll in five games and pick up 12 votes, which will be enough to hand him a narrow win.
This is going to be extremely close though, with the big games to keep an eye on coming in rounds 5, 7, 15 and 20. That is when we have both Selwood and Dangerfield polling in the same game. If the umpires go a different way, it blows this wide open.
GOLD COAST
Winner: David Swallow $5 (TAB)
Next best: Jarrod Lyons, Brayden Fiorini
Speaking of wide open counts, this is the Grand Canyon.
For David Swallow, it will all come down to Round 1, when we have him getting three votes in a win over North Melbourne.
What makes this tough though is that this game was played in monsoonal weather conditions, with the ground almost flooded and the players absolutely drenched.
Given the standard of footy that night, it is almost impossible to predict who the umpires will land on for the maximum.
The contenders:
David Swallow: 32 disposals, three tackles
Jarrod Witts: 25 disposals, 34 hit-outs, five tackles
Aaron Young: 27 disposals, nine tackles, one goal
Jack Ziebell, 21 disposals, three tackles, two goals
Whoever gets the most votes here might win the Gold Coast’s entire count.
GWS
Winner: Stephen Coniglio $2.10 (TAB)
Next best: Lachie Whitfield, Josh Kelly
Rounds one to five are where this one is going to be decided.
Stephen Coniglio starts the year like a house on fire. We’ve got him landing two best on grounds to start the year and picking up another five votes in the next three weeks.
However, the game to keep a close eye on is the Round 3 loss to Sydney. Coniglio had 27 touches and kicked a goal but if the umpires chose to reward the winners, he could be squeezed out by Callum Mills and Josh Kennedy. That will change the final outlook of this count very quickly.
His two main rivals, Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield, do all their polling in the back end of the count, so he is going to need to have a big lead at the end of Round 16.
HAWTHORN
Winner: Tom Mitchell
Next best: Jaeger O’Meara $2.75, Luke Breust $2.75 (TAB)
Forget about runaway winner Tom Mitchell. The real battle here is for second place between midfield star Jaeger O’Meara and gun forward Luke Breust.
O’Meara well and truly fits the model of someone who is going to poll well on Brownlow night. He wins a stack of ball, has highlights that are memorable and is always under the umpire’s nose.
Breust has hardly been a vote getting juggernaut throughout his career, having 16 votes to his name through his first 113 matches.
In 2014 he kicked 57 goals and finished with five Brownlow votes. In 2015 he booted 52 and finished with three.
What return will his 53 goals during the 2018 home and away season bring him?
For O’Meara, the biggest game is a Round 17 loss to Brisbane where we have given him two votes. He had 27 touches and kicked four goals but a host of Lions were good. Watch this one closely.
MELBOURNE
Winner: Max Gawn $1.35 (TAB)
Next best: Clayton Oliver, Angus Brayshaw
This is very similar to Collingwood’s count.
Max Gawn is the best and most important player for Melbourne. But how confident can you be that the umpires will reward him when they constantly look for midfielders?
The Demons have two of the best young ball winners in the game who could get in the way here.
Clayton Oliver is expected to post big numbers after another prolific season in the middle.
However, we are tipping Angus Brayshaw to be equally well rewarded after he put together a brilliant year in the guts. This one is going to be extremely tight.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Winner: Shaun Higgins $1.18 (TAB)
Next best: Ben Cunnington
When the Roos were on fire to start the season, Shaun Higgins was the man driving the bus.
He was absolutely dominant, highlighted by a purple patch between rounds 11 and 15 where we expect him to pick up nine votes.
However, things dry up from there.
His main rival, Ben Cunnington, is expected to poll three votes in rounds 16 and 19, meaning Higgins will need to be at least six ahead at the end of Round 15.
If he is any less than that, this could turn into an upset very quickly.
RICHMOND
Winner: Dustin Martin $1.05 (TAB)
Next best: Kane Lambert, Trent Cotchin
Shut the gate on anyone catching Dustin Martin here.
But leave it open for Trent Cotchin coming in second. Despite what the bookies are saying, we’ve given the edge to fellow ball magnet Kane Lambert.
We’ve got Lambert finishing on 12 votes while Cotchin only secures eight, all of which come before Round 10.
So when Round 11 begins, ideally Lambert will be on five votes, but no worse than three.
We have him in the mix to poll in rounds 13, 15, 16, 18 and 20, so if he is close enough, he is more than capable.
The curveball is that Lambert only has two Brownlow votes for his career. However, in 2018 he is posting individual best numbers for disposals, marks, goals, clearances and rebound 50s.
PORT ADELAIDE
Winner: Ollie Wines $2.40 Robbie Gray $1.70 (TAB)
When we say there is nothing separating Ollie Wines and Robbie Gray, we mean it.
Both Power stars finish on 13 votes here, in one of the toughest counts to pick a winner in for the night.
This will likely be decided between rounds 12 and 14, where we have Wines picking up three best on grounds in a row.
When it is this tight, there is no margin for error. Wines is going to need every one of those to fall his way.
Meanwhile, watch closely in Round 20. Gray is awarded the Showdown Medal for this performance against the Crows. However, the judges voted before the final siren and Adelaide stormed home to win. Will that change things? We think the umpires will reward Matt Crouch.
ST KILDA
Winner: Jack Steven $1.25 (TAB)
Next best: Seb Ross, Jade Gresham
After a horror 2018 season, there aren’t going to be too many highlights for Saints fans come Brownlow night.
In the games they play well in, Jack Steven should be rewarded.
Round 1: Lock for three votes after dominant game against the Lions
Round 5: Will poll in draw with GWS
Round 10: 36 disposals and a goal against Richmond
Round 13: Led the charge in comeback against Gold Coast
Round 17: Owned Carlton on Friday night footy
This one is over!
SYDNEY
Winner: Josh Kennedy $3.25 (TAB)
Next best: Lance Franklin, Luke Parker
It feels like we say this every year, but once again the Swans are one of the hardest teams to predict.
Their fighting style, which usually involves a range of contributors across the board, makes giving out the 3-2-1 a tough process.
There is enough margin for error though to be confident Josh Kennedy is the man. Although he starts the year a little slow, he is expected to poll exceptionally well during a purple patch from rounds 6 to 15. However, there isn’t any margin for error.
Buddy is a lock for three votes after sinking Collingwood and GWS in the run to the finals.
If it is neck and neck at the end of Round 19, the advantage will be with Franklin.
WEST COAST
Winner: Andrew Gaff $2.25 (TAB)
Next best: Elliot Yeo
Will Andrew Gaff’s late season brain fade cost him here?
At the time of his punch to Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw, Gaff was outright second favourite for the Brownlow and was arguably the only man capable of taking down Tom Mitchell.
He missed the final three rounds of the season and now the bookies have him second favourite behind Yeo to be the Eagles’ leading vote getter. Is that an over-reaction?
Post Gaff’s ban, Yeo is expected to pick up just two votes. So if you thought Gaff was likely to be the top Eagle before that Round 20 brain fade, there isn’t much reason to suggest things will change.
It’s certainly tight, but we are giving Gaff the edge here.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Winner : Jack Macrae $1.05 (TAB)
Next best: Marcus Bontempelli
It doesn’t get more straight forward than this at the Kennel, with Jack Macrae and Marcus Bontempelli a clear one-two.
Before his injury Macrae was absolutely on fire, and could have as many as 17 votes by the time Round 9 finishes.
Meanwhile, the Bont took a little while to warn into 2018, and will do his best work at the back of the night.
He should pick up eight votes during a standout patch from rounds 20 to 22 to lock him in second place.
Watch every match of every round of the 2018 Toyota AFL Premiership Season. SIGN UP NOW >
How a baby stole the show at the Brownlow
A very special ‘plus one’ guest at the dazzling Brownlow Medal night has turned heads.
Daicos’ chance to emulate Judd’s Brownlow feat 20 years on
The early years of Nick Daicos and Chris Judd’s careers have often been compared. Now, the Collingwood star has a chance to emulate Judd in his third season at tonight’s Brownlow Medal.