Shane Crawford says Tom Mitchell will be ‘impossible to beat’ in this year’s Brownlow Medal
THE days of not tagging Tom Mitchell and asking how much he hurts opposition clubs are over. The star Hawk has turned into an AFL weapon and is all but home in the Brownlow race, according to Shane Crawford.
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IT was the mid-season sabbatical that has made Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell “impossible to beat” in this year’s Brownlow Medal, according to a past winner.
Mitchell was freakishly prolific in the first half of the 2018 season; since the Hawks’ Round 12 bye, he’s been all that and more, adding extra polish to his extraordinary possession count.
In the process, the star midfielder is now the $1.80 Brownlow Medal favourite, with a notable change coming in his game since mid-June.
Since then, Mitchell has won more of the ball and importantly is using it better, with a greater emphasis on winning it outside the contest.
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He has also cleaned up the one aspect of the game in which some have been critical — his kicking efficiency — and has had fewer turnovers, more target hits and a greater scoring involvement as a result.
That has convinced Hawthorn’s 1999 Brownlow Medal winner Shane Crawford that Mitchell is “unbeatable” in AFL football’s highest individual honour, with four matches to play, starting with Saturday’s clash with Essendon at the MCG.
“I think he is impossible to beat,” Crawford said of Mitchell. “He is now putting a prize on every possession.
“He gets his own footy, like Sam Mitchell. But when he is getting it now, he is starting to look more dangerous because his disposal efficiency is better; he is starting to kick the ball inside 50m a lot more and he is kicking a few more goals.
“He has that great blend of inside and outside footy now, he doesn’t backchat umpires, he just gets on with the game.
“He just gets so much of the ball and does all the basics exceptionally well. He gets front and square, he covers the ground much better than anyone realises, he has a huge engine, and he has cleaned up his possession.”
Champion Data stats have revealed there has been two Tom Mitchells this season — the first who was good in the opening 11 rounds but who still faced criticism for his use of the ball with some clubs opting not to tag him; and the second a cleaner, more efficient, more damaging version since the June bye.
“If I was a coach, there is no doubt, I would be tagging him,” Crawford said. “You just can’t afford not to let him run.”
Since the break, Mitchell has been averaging almost six more disposals per game and his kicking rating has had a positive transformation. He has added almost 50 to his metres gained per game, and he has made his uncontested possessions a weapon.
Likewise, he has had significant improvement in his inside 50s count and his scoring involvements.
Mitchell was runner-up to Dustin Martin in the Brownlow Medal last year, on 25 votes, eight behind the Richmond star.
But Champion Data’s 2018 Brownlow Medal predictor — which does take into account polling history — currently has him in front with 24.5 votes ahead of Martin (20.9) and West Coast’s Andrew Gaff (20.1).
Others in contention are Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield (17) and Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver (15.5).
They have pinpointed 10 of Mitchell’s 18 games where he is considered odds-on to poll votes and another three in which he is a given a chance of polling.
Crawford said the 25-year-old former Swan would be a worthy sixth Brownlow Medallist from Hawthorn, if it pans out as he expects.
But he insists he might not stop there, saying Mitchell is “no one-year wonder … he has produced some really consistent football for a few years now and he is going to continue that for the next three or four years. It’s a credit to him what he has done, and what he will keep doing into the future.
“The club gave him half a year last season to find his feet (in his first year at Hawthorn in 2017), but what he has done in the last season and a half has been incredible.”
Mitchell’s Brownlow hopes looked to have been in jeopardy in Round 5 where he lashed out at North Melbourne’s Todd Goldstein behind play, but he was handed a $1000 fine for the misconduct charge instead of a suspension.
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