The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Collingwood’s current group, its future and everything in between
The Pies are still flying high and could be set to do so for years to come, with Craig McRae’s club set to be right in the action of any big name free agent discourse. Jon Ralph analyses the Pies’ list.
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Mick Malthouse’s Collingwood left one on the table.
Like Kevin Sheedy’s Essendon at the turn of the century, the Pies would have believed they could have had more than the 2010 premiership with their star-studded list.
So as Craig McRae embarks upon his premiership defence, here is the obvious question: can Collingwood cash in on this list full of A-grade stars and A+ role players?
Some rivals have more Brownlow contenders, some have better key position stocks.
No team in footy has a better blend of match-winners, role players in critical areas and well-coached, well-developed footballers who you could argue are better because they play in the Collingwood system.
Think Billy Frampton, Tom Mitchell, Norm Smith Medallist Bobby Hill and Oleg Markov.
They know their role, they execute it to perfection, they are better because they play under the Magpies brand.
TRADE PERIOD
Rating: 8/10
Here is the scary part - Collingwood genuinely believes the list which emerged from the trade period is a superior version to the one which triumphed in the 2023 premiership.
Every premier hopes to get better through natural improvement.
But by bringing in Fremantle’s pressuring, goal-kicking forward Lachie Schultz on a four-year deal (with a fifth-year option) the Pies believe they have four elite pressuring forwards.
He joins Hill, Beau McCreery (who will get more midfield time next year) and Jamie Elliott as a game-turning forward and Schultz at 25 has seven good seasons in him.
The Pies missed on Brisbane-bound Tom Doedee, allowed Taylor Adams to move to the Swans for pick 33, and believed Jack Ginnivan was surplus to requirements as they traded him to the Hawks.
So while they traded their future first-rounder as part of the Schultz deal, they have Hawthorn’s future second and third-rounders.
They will hope the Hawks future second-rounder is only a few picks later than the future first they gave away if they can go close to winning the 2024 flag.
Acquiring Doedee would have rounded out a perfect trade period but instead he went north.
LIST HOLES
Collingwood has nine players who will be 30-plus next year, all of whom are critical to the club’s fortunes including Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Jeremy Howe, Brody Mihocek, Tom Mitchell, Jamie Elliott, Mason Cox, and Jack Crisp.
But the elite talent coming through is also immense - Jordan De Goey (27), Josh Daicos (24), Hill (23), Nick Daicos (20), Isaac Quaynor (23), Darcy Moore (28 in January), Brayden Maynard (27).
What Collingwood believes is that it has the next two years to fast-track a group of a dozen or so youngsters who will succeed the elite veterans as they are phased out.
That group includes silky forward Ash Johnson, elite runner Ed Allan, mid-forward Josh Carmichael, inside mid Finlay Macrae, medium defender Jakob Ryan, ruck-forward Nathan Kreuger and 181cm mid Harvey Harrison.
The question is whether any of them can be A graders.
Collingwood was in the Todd Goldstein race but missed out, and still has high hopes that 202cm former West Adelaide ruck Oscar Steene and 21-year-old ruck-forward Aiden Begg can provide cover if needed this year.
The club has an eye to the future with its key defensive stocks.
Jeremy Howe turns 34 in June, while Nathan Murphy’s career could be ended by the AFL after repeat concussions.
It is why they went so hard for Doedee, but for 2024 the Pies believe Brayden Maynard can play on a key forward if required, Billy Frampton can play full back, and Charlie Dean just needs a run at it with injuries to become an AFL regular.
Only one of them needs to play tall alongside interceptors Howe and Moore.
So where does the 2024 improvement come from?
Collingwood believes Jordan De Goey will only improve his consistency and fitness, Nick Daicos has only played 10 or so games as a bone fide midfielder, and Dan McStay was injured every time he was on the verge of elite form.
Throw in the quartet of small forwards that only GWS can hope to match (Toby Greene, Brent Daniels, Toby Bedford) and the Pies will go deep again.
DRAFT STRATEGY
Collingwood will take only two draft picks (they have 19, 33, 80 and 98) and hold out list spots for the summer rookie draft as well as the mid-season draft, having done so well in both those areas with the likes of Oleg Markov, John Noble and Steene.
Pick 19 will push back to the early 20s and pick 33 will come in to the mid-20s - both through academy picks - so they will likely have two tightly-grouped picks and pass with picks 80 and 98.
Herald Sun draft expert Chris Cavanagh has linked the Pies to WA mid-forward Koltyn Tholstrup after solid senior action for Subiaco.
The Pies are happy to pick in that region, even if they echo many clubs in believing there are 4-6 elite players before the draft evens out rather than 10-12 in previous years.
Markov and Johnson were just elevated to the senior list, with Will Kelly some chance to win back a rookie spot after a summer of toil with the Pies.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
John Noble was dropped for the finals after a quieter six-week patch and after many strong conversations with the Pies about his future didn’t ask for a trade.
His metres gained, disposals and pressure were above average but intercept marking and one-on-one contest work was poor.
Can he regain that elite line-breaking dash while also working on his deficiencies so he is never dropped again?
He will burn with frustration and motivation over the summer.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Collingwood would be disappointed if it didn’t make the decider next year, with the vast quantity of players already on the track and floating around the club an indicator that hunger won’t be an issue.
With a core that includes footy‘s most dynamic player in Nick Daicos, brother Josh, brilliant defender Isaac Quaynor and the mercurial Hill all under 25, they would need to bungle this list to prevent the club from contending for the next 3-5 years.
2023 PLAYER RATINGS AND A 2024 BOLTER
Nick Daicos (12th), Jordan De Goey (19th), Scott Pendlebury (46th), Jack Crisp (53rd),
Darcy Moore (56th), Josh Daicos (97th).
Lachie Schultz rated only 136th last year (above average). Can he officially join the ranks of the elite?
CAP SPACE
The chase for Tom Doedee shows how much cap space the Pies had this season despite missing out on the intercept defender.
As his price tag escalated past $750,000 - and even close to $800,000 if industry sources are to be believed - the Pies were still in it.
He chose Brisbane, so the Pies banked the cap space.
But a club in cap crisis not too long ago will have rivals quaking in their boots next year given everyone wants to play at the Pies.
They have significant cap space, a desire to consider free agents and key defenders, and a song-and-dance man in Craig McRae who has just won over Schultz with his pitch to drag him out of his existing club.
Don’t be surprised if the Pies are at the head of the queue with footy’s big free agents next year.
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2025
Credit to Ben King, who again made clear over the weekend he’s re-signing at the Suns, because he would have been a perfect fit for the Pies for 2025 with Mihocek turning 31 in February.
Collingwood is happy to keep acquiring hybrid mids - it was happy with Doedee’s medical history and believed he would have slotted in well - which means free agents like St Kilda’s Josh Battle will be players of interest.
The Pies have strong interest in Geelong’s Max Holmes - he would be a perfect Steele Sidebottom successor - so the Cats will be desperate to re-sign their emerging star over summer.
Imagine a Tim English type in the Collingwood midfield but surely if the Dogs free agent leaves the Kennel it would be to head back to Perth.
TRADE BAIT
Sceptical about everyone wanting to play for the Pies?
Every big-name Pie apart from the veterans - Pendlebury, Sidebottom - is signed past 2024.
McCreery (2027), McStay (2027), De Goey (2027), Nick Daicos (2029), Josh Daicos (2030), Crisp (2026), Quaynor (2025) and Moore (2028) are among those locked away.
Noble’s situation will be one to watch, while Murphy is out of contract in 2024 which would limit a payout if he cannot continue with concussion.
Carmichael and Macrae will have suitors if they cannot establish themselves in the senior line-up in 2024.
Pendlebury will want to play on past 2024 and why wouldn’t he after finishing fifth in this year’s best-and-fairest?
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