Dustin Martin on track to break Patrick Dangerfield’s Brownlow Medal vote record

DUSTIN Martin might have the Brownlow Medal all but sewn up after Patrick Dangerfield’s suspension and JON RALPH writes he could do it in record-breaking fashion.

Dustin Martin pointing out that he might just break a Brownlow Medal record. Picture: AAP

DUSTIN Martin might be on the greatest Brownlow Medal polling tear in AFL history.

Fresh from what shapes as a trio of three-vote performances, his chief rival was yesterday wiped from Brownlow contention.

But from a deeper analysis at Martin’s weekly performances he won’t just beat Dangerfield, he might wipe his Brownlow record.

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Dustin Martin pointing out that he might just break a Brownlow Medal record. Picture: AAP

Martin is on track to surge past Dangerfield’s 2016 record of 35 Brownlow votes and potentially crash through the 40-vote barrier.

Brownlow voting is historically fluky given the umpires that vote on the award and the track record of short-priced favourites getting beaten.

Yet two key indicators weigh overwhelmingly in Martin’s favour.

Last year’s 25-vote performance saw Martin poll votes in every single one of Richmond’s eight victories.

Of the 24 available votes he could have polled in those wins, he racked up 20 despite a year in which he kicked nine goals to this year’s 24 so far.

Polling in 11 games (with six best-ons) despite what is commonly accepted to be Richmond’s annus horribilis, he polled three votes in a close loss to Geelong and two in a defeat against the Dogs.

Those that know him believe he finally clicked two months into the season amid speculation about his dad’s deportation and the fallout from the off-season chopsticks drama.

Injected into more of a pure midfield role, he polled 24 of those 25 votes in the last 15 rounds of the year.

This year Martin could have polled in 14 of 18 games already, with the Tigers notching 12 wins so far.

Martin doesn’t just play well in those wins, he plays with such authority it is hard to see him not receiving three Brownlow votes.

Can anyone stand in the way of a Dustin Martin Brownlow Medal? Picture: Getty Images

He seems certain to poll maximum votes against Carlton (33 touches, four goals), West Coast (40 and 2), Essendon (30 and 1), North Melbourne (38 and 2), Brisbane (40 and 2) and GWS in Round 18 (31, 11 clearances).

Then there are a clutch of games where he could easily poll three — last week’s 34 touches and a goal against Brisbane, the Giants in Round 9 (36 touches, 10 inside-50s).

Finally there are games where his polling record suggests he could get lucky — the win over Melbourne where Jack Riewoldt kicked six, the loss to the Dogs where he could poll behind Marcus Bontempelli.

Trent Cotchin might steal some votes (Round 2 v the Pies, Round 17 v the Lions) and Alex Rance might take Richmond’s only votes in the Round 13 loss to Sydney.

But last year behind Martin’s tally of 25 votes Cotchin polled just nine votes in a solid year and Rance only seven in an All-Australian year.

Ben Griffiths (four), Brandon Ellis (three) and Jack Riewoldt (two) were the only other Richmond pollers as he took 25 of the 52 Richmond votes.

This year he has been more explosive, kicked more goals, won more matches, been recognised even more for his brilliance.

Patrick Dangerfield broke the record for Brownlow votes last year. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

The challenges come in the form of two low-level fines already accrued and two taggers about to dull his star power.

Hawthorn’s Daniel Howe was well beaten by Joel Selwood but had the better of Josh Kennedy, Dylan Shiel and Nat Fyfe and seems a likely Dusty target.

Then the following week Scott Selwood could go to him or Cotchin, having put the clamps on Bryce Gibbs and Rory Sloane already this year.

Dangerfield might still come with the clouds with 30-plus votes given his best games are extraordinary and he has 35 goals so far compared to 24 last year.

Still, even in a century where Dane Swan and Gary Ablett have been rolled as odds-on favourites, it seems only Martin can beat himself now.

RECORD PACE

With four rounds left, Dustin Martin could already have 36 Brownlow Medal votes in his keep

Analysis by Jon Ralph

■ R1 v Carlton W43

The consummate performance — four goals, 33 disposals. Lock in three votes.

■ R2 v Collingwood W19

25 disposals, two goals, but Cotchin had 26 and two and is likely to get three votes. Dusty one or two.

■ R3 v West Coast W11

40 disposals, two goals. Certain three votes.

■ R4 v Brisbane Lions W52

16 disposals, looked sore. No chance.

■ R5 v Melbourne W13

32 disposals, nine clearances. Jack Riewoldt six goals, Michael Hibberd 27 disposals. Not in AFL coaches votes, landed two in Herald Sun. One or two votes maybe.

■ R6 v Adelaide L76

25 disposals, one goal. Tigers smashed. No votes.

■ R7 v Western Bulldogs L5

28 disposals, two goals, but Marcus Bontempelli clear best. Not in coaches votes, Herald Sun gave him two. Could he sneak in for two?

■ R8 v Fremantle L2

27 disposals, one goal. No Herald Sun votes, no coaches votes. No chance.

Dusty had a big game against the Giants. Picture: Michael Klein

■ R9 v GWS L3

35 disposals, 10 inside 50s. Alex Rance best with coaches, Dusty best with Herald Sun. Two or three votes?

■ R10 v Essendon W15

30 disposals, one goal. Maximum coaches votes, three with Herald Sun. Lock in the three.

■ R11 v North Melbourne W35

38 disposals, two goals. Clearly best afield. Three votes.

■ R13 v Sydney L9

23 disposals, two goals. Rance huge. Not in top seven in coaches votes. No.

■ R14 v Carlton W26

30 possessions, six clearances, seven inside 50s. Clearly best ahead of Matthew Kreuzer. Three votes.

■ R15 v Port Adelaide W13

36 disposals, one goal, best in coaches award over Kane Lambert. Three votes.

■ R16 v St Kilda L67

19 disposals, one goal. Tigers annihilated. No chance.

■ R17 v Brisbane Lions W31

40 possessions, two goals. three votes in Herald Sun, nine coaches votes. Two or three votes.

■ R18 v GWS W19

31 disposals, 10 inside 50s, 11 clearances. The triple-double. Three votes for sure.

■ R19 v Gold Coast W33

34 possessions, one goal, seven inside 50s. Not as dominant but still likely three votes.

With Dangerfield out of the picture, many believ just needs to behave and stay on the park to win the Brownlow Medal. Picture: AAP