Dustin Martin on track to break Patrick Dangerfield’s Brownlow Medal vote record
DUSTIN Martin might have the Brownlow Medal all but sewn up after Patrick Dangerfield’s suspension and JON RALPH writes he could do it in record-breaking fashion.
Richmond
Don't miss out on the headlines from Richmond. Followed categories will be added to My News.
DUSTIN Martin might be on the greatest Brownlow Medal polling tear in AFL history.
Fresh from what shapes as a trio of three-vote performances, his chief rival was yesterday wiped from Brownlow contention.
But from a deeper analysis at Martin’s weekly performances he won’t just beat Dangerfield, he might wipe his Brownlow record.
BROWNLOW GONE: CATS ACCEPT DANGERFIELD BAN
PRESENTATION: DANGER ASKED TO PRESENT ON BROWNLOW NIGHT
ROBBO: THE TRIBUNAL GOT IT WRONG ON DANGER
Martin is on track to surge past Dangerfield’s 2016 record of 35 Brownlow votes and potentially crash through the 40-vote barrier.
Brownlow voting is historically fluky given the umpires that vote on the award and the track record of short-priced favourites getting beaten.
Yet two key indicators weigh overwhelmingly in Martin’s favour.
Last year’s 25-vote performance saw Martin poll votes in every single one of Richmond’s eight victories.
Of the 24 available votes he could have polled in those wins, he racked up 20 despite a year in which he kicked nine goals to this year’s 24 so far.
Polling in 11 games (with six best-ons) despite what is commonly accepted to be Richmond’s annus horribilis, he polled three votes in a close loss to Geelong and two in a defeat against the Dogs.
Those that know him believe he finally clicked two months into the season amid speculation about his dad’s deportation and the fallout from the off-season chopsticks drama.
Injected into more of a pure midfield role, he polled 24 of those 25 votes in the last 15 rounds of the year.
This year Martin could have polled in 14 of 18 games already, with the Tigers notching 12 wins so far.
Martin doesn’t just play well in those wins, he plays with such authority it is hard to see him not receiving three Brownlow votes.
He seems certain to poll maximum votes against Carlton (33 touches, four goals), West Coast (40 and 2), Essendon (30 and 1), North Melbourne (38 and 2), Brisbane (40 and 2) and GWS in Round 18 (31, 11 clearances).
Then there are a clutch of games where he could easily poll three — last week’s 34 touches and a goal against Brisbane, the Giants in Round 9 (36 touches, 10 inside-50s).
Finally there are games where his polling record suggests he could get lucky — the win over Melbourne where Jack Riewoldt kicked six, the loss to the Dogs where he could poll behind Marcus Bontempelli.
Trent Cotchin might steal some votes (Round 2 v the Pies, Round 17 v the Lions) and Alex Rance might take Richmond’s only votes in the Round 13 loss to Sydney.
But last year behind Martin’s tally of 25 votes Cotchin polled just nine votes in a solid year and Rance only seven in an All-Australian year.
Ben Griffiths (four), Brandon Ellis (three) and Jack Riewoldt (two) were the only other Richmond pollers as he took 25 of the 52 Richmond votes.
This year he has been more explosive, kicked more goals, won more matches, been recognised even more for his brilliance.
The challenges come in the form of two low-level fines already accrued and two taggers about to dull his star power.
Hawthorn’s Daniel Howe was well beaten by Joel Selwood but had the better of Josh Kennedy, Dylan Shiel and Nat Fyfe and seems a likely Dusty target.
Then the following week Scott Selwood could go to him or Cotchin, having put the clamps on Bryce Gibbs and Rory Sloane already this year.
Dangerfield might still come with the clouds with 30-plus votes given his best games are extraordinary and he has 35 goals so far compared to 24 last year.
Still, even in a century where Dane Swan and Gary Ablett have been rolled as odds-on favourites, it seems only Martin can beat himself now.
RECORD PACE
With four rounds left, Dustin Martin could already have 36 Brownlow Medal votes in his keep
Analysis by Jon Ralph
■ R1 v Carlton W43
The consummate performance — four goals, 33 disposals. Lock in three votes.
■ R2 v Collingwood W19
25 disposals, two goals, but Cotchin had 26 and two and is likely to get three votes. Dusty one or two.
■ R3 v West Coast W11
40 disposals, two goals. Certain three votes.
■ R4 v Brisbane Lions W52
16 disposals, looked sore. No chance.
■ R5 v Melbourne W13
32 disposals, nine clearances. Jack Riewoldt six goals, Michael Hibberd 27 disposals. Not in AFL coaches votes, landed two in Herald Sun. One or two votes maybe.
■ R6 v Adelaide L76
25 disposals, one goal. Tigers smashed. No votes.
■ R7 v Western Bulldogs L5
28 disposals, two goals, but Marcus Bontempelli clear best. Not in coaches votes, Herald Sun gave him two. Could he sneak in for two?
■ R8 v Fremantle L2
27 disposals, one goal. No Herald Sun votes, no coaches votes. No chance.
■ R9 v GWS L3
35 disposals, 10 inside 50s. Alex Rance best with coaches, Dusty best with Herald Sun. Two or three votes?
■ R10 v Essendon W15
30 disposals, one goal. Maximum coaches votes, three with Herald Sun. Lock in the three.
■ R11 v North Melbourne W35
38 disposals, two goals. Clearly best afield. Three votes.
■ R13 v Sydney L9
23 disposals, two goals. Rance huge. Not in top seven in coaches votes. No.
■ R14 v Carlton W26
30 possessions, six clearances, seven inside 50s. Clearly best ahead of Matthew Kreuzer. Three votes.
■ R15 v Port Adelaide W13
36 disposals, one goal, best in coaches award over Kane Lambert. Three votes.
■ R16 v St Kilda L67
19 disposals, one goal. Tigers annihilated. No chance.
■ R17 v Brisbane Lions W31
40 possessions, two goals. three votes in Herald Sun, nine coaches votes. Two or three votes.
■ R18 v GWS W19
31 disposals, 10 inside 50s, 11 clearances. The triple-double. Three votes for sure.
■ R19 v Gold Coast W33
34 possessions, one goal, seven inside 50s. Not as dominant but still likely three votes.
Trading places? How the biggest AFL deals will get done
Almost every AFL club is poised to get busy this trade period. See who your club is looking at, who they should be chasing and how they will get their deals done in our ultimate guide.
Lucky 13? How Suns can unlock Trade Period — again
Gold Coast holds the keys to another AFL Trade Period as the opening day of official dealing approaches, with its first-round pick set to shape the fates of several clubs — and key players.