David King says Nick Vlastuin is the only Tiger who can fill the void left by the injured Alex Rance
Richmond will know very soon if its game plan requires tinkering or wholesale change after the loss of defensive superstar Alex Rance. And the Tigers’ midfield guns could play a key role, writes David King.
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The AFL game has never witnessed an intercepting phenomenon like Alex Rance.
It is universally agreed that an injured Rance cannot be replaced and that the “system” is the sole reason Richmond can still win the 2019 premiership.
But the problem is that the “Richmond system” became what it is because of Rance.
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The superstar defender has won the football back for the Tigers on average 200 times a season over the past five years — this is 180 intercepts more than the AFL’s second-best rated player. A large portion of those intercepts happen when Rance is assisting one of his fellow back six defenders.
In my opinion there’s only one man at Tigerland who can bridge this intercepting gulf and that man is Nick Vlastuin.
Put simply, Vlastuin must become Luke Hodge in his prime if Richmond is to win this year’s flag.
Vlastuin possesses Hodge-like courage and composure, and has all the tools to become Richmond’s elite interceptor.
Dylan Grimes and David Astbury are tremendous defenders but more classically suited to one-on-one contests.
Vlastuin’s point of difference is his speed to cover the ground, giving him the capability to assist fellow defenders more often.
The Tigers rely on an aggressive forward-half press to score which runs the risk of getting exposed out the back by an opponent’s counter punch.
The Tigers recent successful period is based on the bedrock of scoring from forward-half intercepts at a greater rate than any other team — about six goals a game over the past two football seasons.
But is this level of forward-half aggression (and reward) still sustainable without Rance?
The basic mechanics of Richmond’s defensive method is about each defender controlling the oppositions’ leading lanes.
They do this by positioning themselves in front of their opposing forward, denying an easy lead/mark opportunity.
They’re always at a consistent distance from each other, almost top and tailing each opposition forward.
Some clubs refer to this method as a “one-and-a-half defence”, which is where one defender can influence multiple contests from this starting point.
It’s a game of cat and mouse but on a larger scale.
The danger is that when the “one-and-a-half defence” fails, the opposition can then play leapfrog and stroll into goal.
Rance’s “one-and-a-half defence” separation or space that he allows his opponent is greater than most.
But his speed to close in on other contests is quicker than most and he is without peer in his ability to get back to his direct opponent when he’s guessed incorrectly.
The challenge of orchestrating a defensive unit that can forge forward without Rance falls on the shoulders of the Tigers defensive coach Justin Leppitsch.
Leppitsch’s reputation as the “key-defenders whisperer” will be an ongoing watch throughout the year.
Rance learnt the lion’s share of his defensive craft under the tutelage of Leppitsch during his first stint at Tigerland.
Noah Balta and Ryan Garthwaite will undergo a similar education process but given their lack of experience and genuine know-how it would be a stretch to expect immediate impact let alone excellence.
Can Richmond continue its aggression from clearances given the Alex Rance safety net is no longer there?
Do they need to alter their method to cope?
It may just be suck-and-see for the next three to four weeks. If it doesn’t work, tinkering or wholesale change is required.
Since the start of 2017 the Tigers have lost the clearance battle by an average of three clearances a game, which is the AFL’s worst return.
Their midfield still creates a positive clearance scoring profile, one that has outscored their opposition by an average four points, rating sixth in the AFL.
Damien Hardwick and his coaching crew clearly have assessments to make over the next month or so and time will tell as to the enormity of change required, if any.
Rance cannot be replaced.
The significance of replacing him cannot be underestimated but Richmond’s team defence needs a focal point interceptor to become a standout elite contributor.
If Vlastuin cannot become a Luke Hodge-esque figure, then Richmond won’t be winning this year’s Cup.
Richmond will still win loads of home-and-away matches but at the pointy end of the season all flaws are identified and exposed.
Tonight, Mason Cox or the Magpie clearance game just may highlight the chasm between Richmond with Rance versus Richmond without Rance.