Can Richmond win the 2019 premiership without Alex Rance?

Richmond might still be able to defy Alex Rance’s injury to win the 2019 premiership. But it will rely on youngsters with a combined three games’ AFL experience — and a new game style.

Ryan Garthwaite is one of the options to replace Alex Rance in defence. Picture: Michael Klein

Richmond might still be able to defy the hammer blow of Alex Rance’s injury to win the 2019 premiership.

But if the Tigers hold up the cup this season they will do it in a manner unrecognisable to their extraordinary 2017 campaign.

For all their offensive weapons, the Tigers won that flag on a bedrock of defence — team defence, brilliant one-on-one defence, and a feverish tackling style that sucked the life out of opponents.

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In three straight finals they kept Geelong, GWS and Adelaide to 40, 67 and 60 points — a phenomenal feat.

And Rance was at the heart of it, denied the 2017 Norm Smith Medal only because the ball stopped getting down to him aftera sublime first half.

His probable replacements are relative unknowns — a 19-year-old Rance clone and a defender “you’d want your daughter to marry”.

Noah Balta made his debut on Thursday night as a back-up ruckman and versatile key-position player after Hardwick told Fox Footy in the pre-match that Balta reminded him of 200-gamer Rance.

Alex Rance is consoled by teammates after last night’s game. Picture: Michael Klein

He spent time in the VFL last year as a key defender, giving the Tigers the option of playing him back and bringing Ivan Soldo in for more ruck depth.

Balta has excellent junior pedigree as the No.25 draftee in the 2017 national draft, and in December Richmond forwards coach Justin Leppitsch labelled him the most impressive athlete he had seen.

However, the more likely change is third-year defender Ryan Garthwaite, who returned in the VFL on Thursday.

Drafted as the No.72 selection in 2016, he impressed as a late inclusion for David Astbury in Round 13 last year.

Captain Trent Cotchin said last year Garthwaite was the kind of person “you’d want to marry your daughter”, while Jack Riewoldt has described the blond full-back as the “nicest bloke you’ll ever meet”.

More importantly, he can play as a stopper who also flies for his intercept marks.

Richmond’s challenge of covering a champion’s injury isn’t unique, it’s just unique to the current-day Tigers.

Their big four — Rance, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin — have missed just 14 games since the start of the 2014 season.

So if the Tigers are to win the premiership this year without Rance, they might need to blow rivals off the park with high-octane offence.

They will need to score more heavily to win because they can no longer play eight defenders, and they can no longer rely on Rance repelling opposition advances like a human Pong computer game.

The club had already identified the need to tinker with their surge-based method this year under the new 6-6-6 rules.

It chased big forward Tom Lynch hard not only because he was a darn good player but also because he fitted where the game was going.

So Lynch at least gives them the chance to turbo-charge an offence that already scored heavily with less conventional methods. His three-goal first-up performance was remarkable.

There’s little doubt Richmond will win enough home-and-away games to qualify for September.

Alex Rance in pain after injuring his knee against Carlton.

But can they beat three finals rivals in match-ups that will require their defenders to stand Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, Jack Gunston and James Sicily, and Josh Jenkins, Taylor Walker and Tom Lynch?

Hardwick will slot Garthwaite or Balta into that massive back six vacancy.

But he’ll know he won’t be able to judge just how much the team misses Rance until the final weeks of the premiership season.

MATCHES MISSED SINCE ROUND 1, 2014 (118 GAMES)

Dustin Martin 2 (soft-tissue injuries in 2014, 18)

Jack Riewoldt 2 (scratch to eyeball 2017)

Alex Rance 7 (two-week suspension 2016, five weeks after a bike accident 2014)

Trent Cotchin 4 (one week with a knee injury in 2018, two weeks with fractured cheekbone 2016, one with a back injury 2015)

Total: 15

Of those 118 games there has been only one match when two of those players have been missing — Cotchin and Rance missed Round 7, 2016. Richmond lost to Hawthorn by 46 points.

ALEX RANCE IN 2018

Third-best key defender based on AFL Player Rankings

Best intercept marking key defender

Fifth-best spoiler of key defenders

Fifth-best intercept marker of key defenders