Melbourne plays perfect brand of footy to topple Sydney, and achieve big things in September
AS Melbourne prepares for a huge Friday night clash with Sydney, SAM LANDSBERGER reveals the stats that show these Demons are very much the real deal. Vote: Can the Dees win it all?
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MELBOURNE has the perfect blueprint to take-down Sydney at the MCG on Friday night and a gamestyle that stacks up with a decade of premiership forces.
The Demons are the AFL’s No.1 keepings-off side — the one tactic intrinsically tied to the Swans’ nightmare start to the year.
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A deeper breakdown shows a fairytale flag in coach Simon Goodwin’s first season is a real possibility with the Demons out to break a 53-year drought stretching back to The Beatles’ first tour of Australia.
While John Longmire’s Swans sit on top of the form ladder since Round 7, they have been smashed in uncontested possession in every defeat since Round 1.
Hawthorn’s disposal dominance in Round 10 was the catalyst for its shock victory at the SCG, which was Sydney’s only stumble after a 0-6 start.
The Hawks won 100 more uncontested possessions and chipped, chipped, chipped their way from the back pocket to captain Jarryd Roughead, who kicked the winning goal deep in the last quarter.
Essendon won 29 more uncontested touches in its 30-minute blitz on Friday night, as the Dons piled on 7.2 to 0.1 before their calamitous finish.
The Dees sit second on the form ladder and are averaging 38.7 more disposals per match than their opponents.
On average the Swans were beaten by 50.8 disposals from Rounds 2-6 as they fell to Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, West Coast, GWS and Carlton.
But while Sydney’s worrying trend could be exploited by the league’s best retention team, the Demons must butter up for their fourth match in 18 days.
Goodwin identified this trio of six-day breaks as a challenging patch when the fixture was released last October and the Demons have tailored their training loads successfully so far.
Behind Adelaide, the Demons are the No.2 team for scoring from turnovers — a style which has proven sustainable in September.
Scoring from turnovers trumps stoppages in finals with every premier from 2007-2015 ranked either No.1 or 2 for that source.
And the Demons’ flexibility is reminiscent of last year’s champion Bulldogs outfit, with both teams becoming the new kids on the premiership block.
Like Dogs counterpart Luke Beveridge, Goodwin has happily spun the magnets this season.
The Dees are predictably unpredictable. Their No.1 forward target from Rounds 9-13 wasn’t Jack Watts or Jeff Garlett or Christian Petracca. It was surprisingly the aptly named Tom Bugg.
Bugg was overtaken by Tom McDonald this week, the five-goal hero who made his name playing out of the opposite goalsquare but has also helped in the ruck this season.
Last season the baby Bulldogs bravely battled on with captain Bob Murphy, Jason Johannisen, Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae and Mitch Wallis injured for sizeable chunks of the year.
This season the Demons are 8-5 with only four games from Max Gawn (hamstring) and Jesse Hogan (illness/suspension) with captain Nathan Jones (quad) sidelined for another month.
The Demons are the only club in the land with an unbeaten interstate record, edging West Coast at Subiaco on Saturday night with the fourth-least experienced Round 14 line-up.
It is a red and blueprint for success. The Beatles had Paul McCartney and Melbourne has development guru Brendan. Let it be.
FLAG FORM — Points differential from turnovers