Melbourne is the worst side in the competition at its most important kick, the one going inside 50
There’s been an injury list that won’t quit and an inability to defend, but Melbourne’s hellish season is born from something else — and the Demons are as bad at it as there’s been in the competition, ever.
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This is the stat that proves Melbourne’s “connection” is broken.
Just 39.9 per cent of Demons kicks inside 50 are retained by the beleaguered side — the lowest percentage ever recorded.
Ladder-leader Geelong, by comparison, is going at a league-high 51.2 per cent.
That kick inside the attacking arc is by far the most important one in the game.
Get it right and your side will almost always have an opportunity to score, but get it wrong and you are likely to be scored against at the other end.
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The top three teams in this statistic — Geelong, Greater Western Sydney and Collingwood — also occupy the top three spots on the AFL ladder.
Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin has run through the laundry list of problems this season, with last year’s preliminary finalists now an unthinkable 16th at 3-7.
They’ve been smashed by injuries and easy to score against, but Goodwin’s thoughts after a Round 5 loss to St Kilda perhaps best encapsulate their woes.
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In that game, the Saints scored a stunning 8.0 (48) in chains originating in their back half as Melbourne found new ways to torch the ball going forward.
“We need to connect with the ball. We had lots of opportunities where our fundamentals forward of centre just let us down,” Goodwin said on that Saturday night at the MCG.
To emphasise the scale of this flaw, Melbourne has won the inside 50 count in all but three games this season.
Incredibly, the Demons had 72 inside 50s to Geelong’s 48 in Round 2, yet they were annihilated by the Cats by 80 points.
In that damning Round 5 Saints game, Melbourne had eight more entries in a 40-point loss.
AFL analyst Champion Data started recording the kick inside 50 retention rate in 2006.
This year, the AFL average is 46.7 per cent, but nine of the Demons’ best players are below that mark.
Midfielders Jack Viney (33 kicks at 21.2 per cent), Clayton Oliver (50 at 28 per cent) and Angus Brayshaw (37 at 32.4 per cent) are among many struggling to hit a target when it counts most.
Of course, they can never be solely to blame.
A forward line that has struggled to gain separation, present an option and influence isn’t to be ignored.
Tom McDonald (eight goals in 10 games) just isn’t the same presence as the man who kicked 53.20 last year, heir apparent Sam Weideman can’t get a game, Christian Petracca continues to tease and now Jake Melksham has a long-term foot injury.
Then there’s the trade of Jesse Hogan, who has left a hole the Dees haven’t been able to fill.
It’s low-hanging fruit when it comes to analysing this side, but the fact is Hogan’s 47 goals and 125 marks — both No.2 at the club last year — haven’t been replaced.
KICK INSIDE 50 RETENTION RATE
Geelong 51.2%
GWS Giants 51%
Collingwood 49.2%
Western Bulldogs 48.6%
Richmond 46.5%
Fremantle 46.4%
St Kilda 46.4%
North Melbourne 46.4%
Port Adelaide 46.2%
Sydney 46.1%
Adelaide 45.6%
Carlton 45.6%
Brisbane Lions 44.3%
West Coast 44.1%
Essendon 43%
Hawthorn 40%
Gold Coast 40%
Melbourne 39.9%
Source: Champion Data
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