The List Manager: Jon Ralph examines Essendon’s current list, its future and everything in between
Brad Scott sent a warning to his players before the 2024 season, now he might see Jake Stringer’s exit as the moment he begins to make the Bombers a powerhouse once more.
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Say what you want about the decision to trade Jake Stringer, but at least Brad Scott is following through on his word.
You can debate whether Stringer’s loss will hurt the Dons but you can’t say Scott didn’t follow up his pre-season warning in the Herald Sun.
“If you are not committed to the lifestyle that is required of an elite AFL player you won’t last here long. If I reflect over time, I have been potentially too supportive for too long,” he said.
“You can support, support and support, but if you don’t uphold your end of the bargain, we will move on really quickly.”
So Stringer is gone and Scott will see it as a club-wide shot across the bows.
As in “If you want to play for Essendon you do so fully committed, fully fit and fully prepared to tackle and chase like your life depends upon it”.
But when he made the huge judgement call to move on those Roos veterans including Brent Harvey and Drew Petrie it backfired.
Now can he use this hard-line call to turn Essendon into a serious football club.
Essendon isn’t trustworthy. Not over 20 years, not over the past two seasons of Scott’s tenure.
In 2022, they finished 11-12 and lost five of their last seven games to fall from fifth after round 18 to finish 12th.
In 2023 they finished 11-11 with an Anzac Day draw, but lost six of the last seven to fall from third in round 16 to 11th.
Deja vu.
So now Essendon fans want answers to the questions that will define the 2025 season.
Is Peter Wright a flash in the pan or about to bounce back?
Does Darcy Parish do enough damage?
Is Archie Perkins just a good ordinary player or a game-changer?
What happened to Jade Gresham, who kicked only 10 goals in his final 15 games after a bright start to his career?
Why can’t Ben McKay handball?
Can Sam Draper be a top five AFL ruckman or is he just a cult hero who is good for headlines?
What happened to 2023 Mason Redman?
Until those questions are answered Essendon will remain untrustworthy.
TRADE PERIOD RATING: 6/10
Essendon held its nerve, adamant that the club wasn’t handing Stringer a second season in a move that saw him traded for the lowly pick 53.
Then they secured Melbourne’s future first-rounder and a range of 2024 picks for NGA selection Isaac Kako but had to give up pick nine.
Fans will wonder why the club didn’t do more as it pondered some interest in GWS pick 15 Conor Stone but didn’t get it done.
The internal Dons view is that bringing in list cloggers would only have denied the existing talent on their list chances.
But Essendon is also adamant that stocking up on 2025 draft picks isn’t a message it is copping out and accepting it cannot compete in the near future.
It is still open to trades and free agency acquisitions next year, it still has plenty of cap space.
It just didn’t believe throwing away good picks on speculative players in this year’s trade period after going so hard bringing in Ben McKay, Xavier Duursma, Jade Gresham and Todd Goldstein was the right policy.
LIST HOLES
Essendon has plenty of everything on every line.
How many are the type of A-graders that will eventually take the Dons to a flag?
Case in point?
Only the brilliant Merrett made the AFL’s 44-man All Australian squad.
The club’s own analysis is that premiership teams have at least five elite players.
Right now harsh judges would say it’s Merrett and then daylight, with Durham and Martin at least possessing elite qualities.
What of that depth?
The midfield is overflowing, so much so that Elijah Tsatas, Ben Hobbs, Will Setterfield (when fit) and Dylan Shiel all struggled to get midfield time.
The forward line has enough talls and smalls to cobble together a winning score.
The backline has quality names – Ben McKay, Zach Reid, Jordan Ridley, Mason Redman, third tall Jayden Laverde.
And yet ….
Apart from Kyle Langford (and the departed Stringer) no other Don reached 20 goals, as a collection of Gresham, Matt Guelfi, Caddy (nine goals), Archie Perkins, Jye Menzie played some time forward.
No Essendon small forward since the 2000 premiership has really been able to dominate games regularly as the likes of Alwyn Davey Sr, Orazio Fantasia, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Angus Monfries have been handy types without turning contests single-handedly.
For Essendon to finish top four next year Jordan Ridley must be a James Sicily-type presence, Mason Redman must beat Dan Houston for an All Australian spot and one of Peter Wright or Langford needs to kick 50 goals.
It is too much to ask that Kako will come in and be a Nick Watson-style presence, or that Nate Caddy will take games by the scruff of his neck, or that even Reid can be a defensive weapon after nine games in four seasons given his injury run.
With Heppell and Kelly gone, who are the half backs?
Archie Roberts will again get his chance after four impressive debut season games, as will Nik Cox and mid-season pick Saad El-Hawli.
DRAFT STRATEGY
Essendon believed Melbourne’s offer for its No. 9 draft pick was too good to pass up, securing the Dees future first-rounder plus this year’s 28, 40, 46, 54, 65 (also handing over its future third-rounder).
It will give the club the points to match a bid for Kako and then if one of eight or nine players on the club’s draft board are available it could use that Dees first-rounder to get back into the draft.
But everyone wants those mid-teens picks so the price might be too high.
Ideally the Dons will take four national draft picks and leave two spots open for summer train-on players via the SSP.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP?
Not for the first time the top 10 draft trio of Zach Reid, Archie Perkins and Nik Cox are under pressure. Perkins played 18 games and Cox 20 but neither finished top ten in the best and fairest. Perkins will get more time as a forward while the retirements of Kelly and Heppell give Cox a full-time position at half back in 2025.
Essendon tried to play Perkins as more of a mid-forward this year but he got lost so the Dons will back him in as a forward who can get more looks with Stringer GWS-bound.
AFL PLAYER RANKINGS
Zach Merrett (26th), Nic Martin (57th), Sam Durham (59th), Sam Draper (93rd), Jye Caldwell (100th). In 2025 Martin can be a top 30 player if he fixes up kicking that was rated by Champion Data as poor.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Can we pass on this question? Only joking.
Essendon secured four senior players last year then went back to the draft this year.
Dons fans might be confused but Essendon believes it has a huge middle tier capable of much more and a band of kids who will get chances. So while Brad Scott says every decision has a long-term strategy in mind, this list is good enough.
SALARY CAP ROOM
Essendon still has ample cap space despite front-ending Ben McKay’s fat contract in its early years and extending players like Andy McGrath, Jordan Ridley and Mason Redman.
Jake Stringer’s trade saves the club around $500,000 so there is money for free agents and trades next year. But given the long-term strategy, is there the will to give up draft capital?
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2025
What would Essendon give for an Oscar Allen-style key forward who would straighten them up and allow Nate Caddy and Kyle Langford inferior match-ups to shine.
The club was also interested in the elite run of Hawthorn’s Finn Maginness in the trade period and while the Hawks shut down a trade he is out of contract in 2025.
Conor Stone, who they also considered, is contracted to 2026 at GWS.
TRADE BAIT
Sam Draper is a free agent who wants to stay at Essendon.
But as clubs like Adelaide circle he is expected to want to prove his worth to the Dons but first having an exceptional pre-season and then hitting the ground running early in the year.
Still, having already knocked back St Kilda as a young Don he has shown his loyalty before and will likely do so again.
Rivals will watch the progress and midfield opportunities of Ben Hobbs and Elijah Tsatas but the Dons are keen to play them early and often.
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