Essendon season review: The awkward question Brad Scott must answer after finals failure
Does Brad Scott know if Essendon is close to contending or needs rebuilding? As CALLUM DICK writes, it’s a question that needs answered ahead of a defining 12 months for club and coach.
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Before a ball had been kicked in anger Essendon coach Brad Scott moved to temper expectations around the Bombers’ finals hopes in 2024.
Club great Matthew Lloyd had warned fans would be readying to “tear down Windy Hill” should its finals drought continue but Scott suggested the list profile more closely resembled a team in rebuild than a September contender.
All the pre-season posturing had been forgotten by the time the Bombers posted a 20-point win over the 6-2 GWS Giants in round 9, which lifted Scott’s side into third on the ladder.
At the end of round 15 there they remained but, 11 weeks later, had fallen outside the top eight entirely to finish the year in a familiar 11th.
That Giants win was the last time the Bombers bested a future finals contender. For the second straight year, a promising start to the season ended without a September showing.
While early opinion was divided on the Bombers’ finals credentials entering the season, an 11-win campaign would have only been considered a passing grade by a handful of optimists.
But given the 9-4-1 start and subsequent slump, fans have a right to feel a little aggrieved.
The club had lured Ben McKay out of North Melbourne on a mammoth contract and brought in veteran ruck Todd Goldstein to strengthen the position. Jade Gresham and Xavier Duursma were prized recruits out of St Kilda and Port Adelaide respectively and while serviceable, were hardly game changers.
Assessing the Bombers’ season depends entirely on your expectations entering 2024. Using the simplest metrics, wins and ladder position, it was identical to 2023.
But Scott wanted to see growth in his list and the upside was there for all to see.
Superstar midfielder Zach Merrett enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career and was unlucky not to earn an All-Australian blazer.
Jye Caldwell and Sam Durham emerged as genuine A-grade midfielders and Nic Martin shone as a running defender on the rise. When first round draftee Nate Caddy got his opportunity, he took it with both hands.
It would be wrong to say the Bombers went backwards in 2024. But how far forwards did they go? Ultimately, probably not enough.
OFF-SEASON MOVES
Much of Essendon’s heart and soul walked out the door when Dyson Heppell decided to call time on his career after 253 games — five of those finals, for zero wins.
But it could be the bittersweet changing of the guard the Bombers need to begin the steep climb back into September contention.
Nick Hind, Kaine Baldwin and Tex Wanganeen were jettisoned at the end of the season following the prior departure of luckless 2023 mid-season rookie draftee Jaiden Hunter, whose continued battle with injury the club could wait out no longer.
There was an apparent looming call to be made on mercurial forward Jake Stringer, however the 30-year-old has hit a trigger for a one-year contract extension and will play on in 2025.
Hind’s delisting came as a shock to many Bombers fans but hinted at the feeling within Windy Hill that they boast a surplus of midfield talent. The bookends are what needs addressing in the coming weeks and months.
Still more than a month out from the trade and free agency period commencing, the Bombers have been linked to exactly nobody.
Jack Lukosius has been given permission from the Suns to speak with rival clubs but the draft capital cost to acquire would be expensive, and the general consensus is that if the key forward does leave it will likely be to South Australia.
With pick 8 – possibly 9, should St Kilda receive first-round compensation for Josh Battle – Essendon is close enough to the pointy end of the draft board to add a quality piece.
Given this year’s draft is incredibly deep at the midfield position, and the Bombers are one of the few clubs who won’t be in the market for one, they have a chance to snag one of the top key position prospects.
Tall forward Harry Armstrong leads the line as the best forward in the draft, while his Sandringham Dragons teammate Luke Trainor has shown a knack for playing at both ends of the ground and could be a desirable swingman option at 194cm.
Then there is the mobile 200cm Murray Bushrangers forward Jack Whitlock to consider, while at the other end Gippsland Power’s Alix Tauru has jumped up draft boards to be among the top-ranked key defensive prospects.
OFF THE FIELD
Scott is now halfway through the four-year deal he signed in September 2022 and after a stagnant season will want to show measured improvement next year.
On balance the Bombers ended the year with more positives than most teams in the bottom 10 but with the weight of two decades’ worth of finals failures on his shoulders, Scott will be among the coaches most under pressure entering 2025.
Despite being the No.1 disposal team in the competition, the Bombers ranked 13th for points-for and 15th for points-against this season. Only the bottom three of West Coast, North Melbourne and Richmond ended the year with a worse percentage.
They were the No.4 inside-50 team in the competition yet only kicked 100-plus points four times – and two of those in defeat. Eleven times they were held to 80 points or less. Five times they lost by five goals or more.
It all speaks to inefficient ball movement, inefficiency inside 50 and a propensity for the backline to break against the best opposition.
Whether those deficiencies are down to game plan or list strength is a question Scott and co. must answer quickly, because it will dictate not only their draft and trade priorities but also expectations next season.
2025 PREVIEW
Next year looms as a make-or-break campaign.
Essendon must decide exactly where it sits in the AFL pecking order, because it has two drafts to go before Tasmania enters the competition and cannot risk its list being caught in no-man’s land while the competition’s 19th team owns a monopoly on the top talent.
Scott needs to rule on whether the list is a few pieces away from contending, or still requires time and young talent before it is ready to hit its straps. If it is the latter, can he afford to wait that long, with a fan base crying out for finals success?
We will know much more about the club’s short and long-term outlook in 12 months’ time.
If Scott can harness the young talent at his disposal, add a few key pieces to the puzzle and get the most out of his veterans then finals is absolutely a possibility — it could and should have happened this year.
But in a competition that moves quickly, there will be plenty of bottom-10 teams also jostling for a place in September.
WAY TOO EARLY PREDICTION: 10th: 12-11
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