Essendon could achieve rare piece of history by coming from bottom of the ladder to AFL finals

THEY’RE in the eight and starting to build, but can Essendon maintain the rage in the back half of 2017? Or will they fall away? CHRIS CAVANAGH on the Bombers’ 2017 chances.

WOODEN spoon one season, finals the next?

In the past 20 years, just three teams have completed that feat.

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Essendon is shaping as a very real possibility to be the fourth.

The Bombers had unique circumstances last year, the club winning just three games in the absence of 10 senior players who served doping bans.

There were plenty of questions coming into this season, with no one really sure how the returning players would fair or how well a new-look Bombers outfit would jell.

While this season has been somewhat of a rollercoaster ride for Essendon fans, most would be pleased with the direction their team is taking.

John Worsfold’s side is the No.1 pressure team and has built a game based around fast rebound from defence.

While a changed midfield mix in recent weeks has improved clearance numbers slightly, Essendon has won the inside-50 count just twice in its 12 games, instead being forced to defend and rebound the ball from the back half.

Ranked 12th for inside-50s overall, the positive for the Bombers has been a well-functioning forward line which has been producing shots at goal from 58 per cent of entries — seven per cent above the competition average.

After Round 12, Essendon had four forwards in the top 23 goalkickers in the competition.

The shift forward for Cale Hooker (23 goals) is working, Joe Daniher (34 goals) has kicked three or more goals in eight games and Orazio Fantasia (25 goals) and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (19 goals) provide speed and forward pressure.

The Bombers proved their capabilities with a 70-point thumping of Port Adelaide in Round 12, former Hawthorn champion Jason Dunstall labelling that game the best he had seen from Essendon for “five or 10 years” while former Brisbane Lions captain Jonathan Brown said the performance had proven finals were more than just a pipe dream.

“The Bombers can make the eight, don’t you worry about that,” Brown said on Fox Footy.

“They’ve got stars. Their goal-to-goal line is fantastic and a really highly functional forward line which a lot of clubs don’t have.”

Defender Michael Hurley has been the standout among the returning players.

With improvement still to squeeze out of the playing group and a favourable run home which includes just two interstate trips, it seems the sky is the limit for the Bombers this year.

Michael Hurley has been a star in 2017. Picture: Tom Huntley

ROBBO SAYS

In it to win it and, after the Port Adelaide performance, the Bombers proved they have weapons to worry every team.

They don’t travel well (three losses on the road) so need to avoid interstate trips if they make finals.

Their midfield was poor until the Port game, but if they can find consistency at stoppages and improve between the arcs, the second half of the year will be better than the first half — with a favourable draw.

If Joe Daniher can go to another level again, if Cale Hooker keeps his form and Tom Bellchambers stay fit, the Bombers will worry many sides.

Brent Stanton (centre) hasn’t had his best season. Picture: Darren England.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE BOMBERS

MONEY MAN

ZACH MERRETT

Won Essendon’s best and fairest last year and has taken another step forward this season. Still just 21 and has averaged 32 disposals, 577 metres gained and more than six score involvements per game through the midfield. He is also the sixth highest SuperCoach scorer in the competition.

SURPRISE PACKET

ORAZIO FANTASIA

Has not come out of nowhere but his stocks have risen significantly this season. A steal at pick 55 in the 2013 national draft, the 21-year-old forward has averaged 14 touches per match and has kicked an accurate 25.9 from 12 games after booting 29.25 in 19 matches last year.

GONE BACKWARDS

BRENT STANTON

Finished seventh in Essendon’s 2015 best and fairest but is one of a number of Bombers struggling since returning from last year’s 12-month doping suspension. The 31-year-old is averaging just 16 disposals (lowest since 2004) and has been dropped three times.

SEASON SNAPSHOT

POSITION: 8TH

WINS: 6

LOSSES: 6

PERCENTAGE: 102.9%

LAST YEAR: 18TH

STORY SO FAR ...

Rd1 Hawthorn W25

Rd2 Brisbane W27

Rd3 Carlton L15

Rd4 Adelaide L65

Rd5 Collingwood W18

Rd6 Melbourne L28

Rd7 Fremantle L37

Rd8 Geelong W27

Rd9 West Coast W61

Rd10 Richmond L15

Rd11 Essendon L16

Rd12 Port Adelaide W70

THE RUN HOME

R14 Sydney SCG

R15 Brisbane ES

R16 Collingwood MCG

R17 St Kilda ES

R18 North Melbourne ES

R19 Western Bulldogs ES

R20 Carlton MCG

R21 ADELAIDE ES

R22 Gold Coast MS

R23 Fremantle ES

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti is a fan favourite. Picture: AAP

THE STATS THAT MATTER

SUPERCOACH POINTS (ave)

Zach Merrett 112

Brendon Goddard 103

Dyson Heppell 103

Michael Hurley 98

Jobe Watson 89

DISPOSALS

Zach Merrett 32.3

Brendon Goddard 27.4

Dyson Heppell 26.6

Jobe Watson 25.6

Michael Hurley 23.4

KICK RATING

Brent Stanton +7.9%

Orazio Fantasia +7.0%

Josh Green +7.0%

Conor McKenna +6.7%

Mark Baguley +6.3%

CONT. POSSESSIONS

Dyson Heppell 11.6

Jobe Watson 10.3

Zach Merrett 9.2

Brendon Goddard 8.8

Darcy Parish 7.5

UNCONT. POSSESSIONS

Zach Merrett 22.7

Brendon Goddard 18.7

David Zaharakis 17.4

Jobe Watson 15.5

Dyson Heppell 15.2

Zach Merrett has continued his superb form this season. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

METRES GAINED

Zach Merrett 577m

Michael Hurley 429m

Dyson Heppell 387m

David Zaharakis 338m

Joe Daniher 328m

INTERCEPT POSSESSIONS

Michael Hurley 8.1

Matt Dea 6.0

Patrick Ambrose 5.8

Martin Gleeson 5.6

James Kelly 5.4

SCORE INVOLVEMENTS

Joe Daniher 7.5

Brendon Goddard 7.2

Dyson Heppell 6.9

Jobe Watson 6.8

Orazio Fantasia 6.6

PRESSURE POINTS

Zach Merrett 48.3

Jobe Watson 46.4

Dyson Heppell 44.7

David Zaharakis 38.9

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti 38.0

GOALS

Joe Daniher 34

Orazio Fantasia 25

Cale Hooker 23

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti 19

Josh Green 12

Source: CHAMPION DATA

Could Dustin Martin end up at the Tigers? Picture: Getty Images

TRADING PLACES?

COMING?

Plenty of hype around the Bombers and with the supplements saga well in the rearview mirror it means Essendon is well placed to land a big fish. The spine looks secure, but what about some extra cream around the edges? Dustin Martin has been linked to the Dons, as has dashing Bulldog Jason Johannisen. Kurt Tippett could be on the lookout for a new home and if the Bombers didn’t have to pay all his contract, he would provide another ruck option.

GOING?

It’s unlikely many will want out of a team seemingly on the rise, but can any be prised away? David Zaharakis is yet to re-sign but he’s making all the right noises. The Bombers look well placed.

FINALS ANALYSIS

Odds for eight: $1.90

Odds for flag: $26

The Bombers need to show greater consistency but as it stands they are a strong chance to play finals. Six games to come on their favoured track at Etihad Stadium and just two interstate trips in the run home.