We look at the finals contenders and reasons why they could or can’t win the premiership
TYPICALLY, the top eight has been set by now. But this year? It’s all up for grabs. Is your team in the hunt? Lauren Wood looks at why they can and can’t win the flag.
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IT’S the closest season we have seen in some time, with the largest number of games decided by a goal or less to this point of the season since 1928.
Typically, the top eight has been set by now. But this year? It’s anyone’s game.
WHO’S GOING TO MAKE FINALS? WHO’S GOING TO MISS OUT? HAVE YOUR SAY IN OUR LADDER PREDICTOR BELOW?
Who can make the finals? That’s anyone’s guess. And once the eight is finally settled, anything could happen.
The Western Bulldogs threw the age old adage of needing to finish top four to claim the flag right out the window last year, coming from seventh to prove they had what it took to take home a premiership.
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And in 2017, every team has its merits that could get it there.
In every premiership, there’s key facets of the game that indicate a team has the tools in its kit to go all the way.
There’s tackle counts, contested ball numbers and various differentials that have premiership qualities.
With Champion Data, we look at the top 13 sides and the stats that show they could — or couldn’t — be the ones lifting the cup on that one day in September.
ADELAIDE
TOP of the table and it’s looking like the prized top-four for the Crows, with Champion Data rating them a 91 per cent chance to hold on.
And it goes without saying how handy that is to have in your back pocket come September.
They’ve already notched nine wins meaning a few more could allow them to rest up a few key players so they’re ready to launch into the finals.
But it’s the gap between their best and worst that is a worry. There’s been three significant worrying losses — against Geelong, Melbourne and North Melbourne — in all of which Rory Sloane has been countered.
If they stay at home in the finals, expect them to go far. Also have finals experience.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: No. 1 points for, averaging 118.8 per game, and No. 1 for points differential from turnovers.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: Has lost contested possession count by 14 per game in their three losses, meaning the midfield can get exposed.
GWS GIANTS
A GAME clear of third, top four can be pencilled in.
Injuries have taken their toll but the Giants are set for a timely late-season influx of returning players, including the likes of Stephen Coniglio (ankle).
Know what it takes to get the job done in finals and will have the burning desire to go one — or even two — better than last year’s preliminary final effort.
They’re slick and quick and that’s two key ingredients for September success.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: Ball movement ability is worlds better than any other side. Offensive ball movement rating of +136 per cent.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: Battling defensively. Ranked just 13th for defensive ball movement, at -27 per cent.
GEELONG
Missed its opportunity to launch into equal top spot on Thursday night, but it’s not all bad.
The Cats have superstars in Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood, but it’s the ones helping them out around the contest that have taken the next step since last year’s preliminary final loss to Sydney.
They’re moving the ball better and are batting deeper in the middle, and Zach Tuohy keeps reinforcing his reputation as one of the recruits of the year with his dash and boot out of defence.
Also has to contend with recent history, having lost six of its last eight finals since claiming the 2011 flag.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: Top of the table for contested football, having won the count by almost 10 possessions per game.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: Easy to score against from clearances, ranked second in the competition. Have conceded a score 28 per cent of the time.
PORT ADELAIDE
DEFENCE wins premierships? We heard it for years and it would be proven true if the Power prevail.
Their good is very good but concerning is the vast gap to poor performances, particularly with an apparent inability to hold their nerve as was seen in Geelong a few weeks ago.
They’re also yet to prove their mettle against the competition’s top sides. In what is probably a more damning statistic, the Power have only come up against three top-eight teams so far this season and lost all three of those games. It’s a tough run home.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: Have sat among the best few in the competition for inside 50 differential and time in forward half differential all season.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: Has generated an average of less than 30 points per game from the defensive half — the fewest of any side in the league.
MELBOURNE
IT’S been 10 years but it’s looking more and more like the Demons will have to scrap the September holiday plans that have dominated the last decade.
It’s been up and down, there’s no doubt, but Clayton Oliver has starred and Christian Petracca shown glimpses of the player he will become. And it’s scary.
When it works, it works well, and they also have the ability to score strongly.
Max Gawn’s absence hasn’t been as costly as had initially been thought and the Demons will go on with confidence that they can cover where necessary.
Could they? Huge month ahead but their ability to make sides pay stands them in good stead.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: Turnover numbers. Has scored almost 11 goals per game from turnovers, and also among one of the best sides for points differential from turnovers.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: Ball movement. Currently move the ball almost 30 per cent below the AFL average and before the clash with the Western Bulldogs, were ranked 14th in the competition for that area.
RICHMOND
THE Tigers in the top four is the feel-good story of the year — Swan Street is pumping when Richmond is flying. So imagine Tigertown if they make it.
But while no one seems to think they can go all the way, the numbers tell a different story. They stack up against the best when they can hold their nerve to close out games — which they failed to do against the Swans on Saturday.
Of the two close games Richmond has won, both were in front of crowds of 85,000-plus, meaning they’re ready for the ‘G in September.
With small forwardlines in vogue, Jack Riewoldt is the only tall in attack and if he goes down, they would hope it’s not a Jenga-like collapse. Have to make more of it rather than yo-yoing in and out of the attacking 50 before finding goal.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: Makes teams pay. Have notched the most-ever forward-half turnovers per game with more than 30 per game and rank second for points against.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: Don’t make the most of it when inside 50. Have scored from less than 45 per cent of inside 50s.
WEST COAST
IT had looked to be a rucking mess for the Eagles when they lost both Nic Naitanui and Scott Lycett. Then Drew Petrie went down, too.
The load has to be spread when going in forward, particularly once two-time Coleman Medallist Josh Kennedy is back.
And they have to show they are damaging when it counts, particularly when moving the ball.
A few home games in the back-end of the season could help them build, and it sounds simple, but the Eagles must rectify their inability to win at the MCG if they expect to have any chance, having recorded just two wins from their last eight trips to the famous stadium.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: Have proven dangerous when on the attack, generating a goal more than 25 per cent of the time when going inside 50. Ranked fourth in the competition.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: Give away a lot of contested ball. Ranked in league’s bottom five for contested possession differential and clearance differential.
ESSENDON
HAVE had a handy fixture ahead, only having to play two matches against top-eight teams which should allow them to get a nice jump on the W-L count.
But it takes more than a forgiving fixture to make finals, and the Bombers’ last outing — against Port Adelaide — showed all the signs of a side that can mix it with the best.
They were pacy and clean and jelled in attack, while their defensive capabilities also stood up.
Not a lot of finals experience in their midst and haven’t won a final since the 2004 elimination final against Melbourne.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: Capitalise when inside 50. Have scored in 51 per cent of inside 50s, and are ranked third for scoring goals when inside 50, doing it 29 per cent of the time.
T HE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: Has the second worst inside 50 differential (-9.6 per game) and the second-worst time in forward half differential.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
THEY say doing it once is tough. Doing it again? Well, that’s a whole new ball game.
The Bulldogs — ravaged by injury in 2016 — have had a few issues here and there losing big man Jordan Roughead early in the year along with Travis Cloke, Jake Stringer and Dale Morris.
They don’t like to do it easy.
The reigning premiers have looked like they have been searching for the right set-up, particularly up forward, but have stayed in touch with most sides.
Their best is yet to come, there’s no doubt.
But of course there is one promising statistic in particular in their favour. They’ve done it before.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: Shut teams down. Before the clash against Melbourne, had conceded the third-fewest points and been the third-hardest side to score against once the ball is inside 50.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: Need to be better when on the attack. One of the lowest in the competition for scoring a goal when inside 50, doing it just over 20 per cent of the time.
ST KILDA
IT all looked so good — that win over Greater Western Sydney looked to be a sign of what was to come for the Saints.
And while it’s been a tough last month, they got things back on track against the Kangaroos and have still managed to tick off some major premiership indicators.
Key Champion Data statistics show that if a side delivers big tackling numbers, it will go a long way to their premiership power.
Still lacking star class, but if the likes of Seb Ross and Dylan Roberton can find some support and Josh Bruce maintains his groove up forward, it will go a long way.
Have a tough run home that will be the ultimate litmus test.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: Tackling machines. Has the best tackle differential of any side, winning the count by an average of almost seven per game.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: Scarcely score from stoppage. Has only generated an average of 25 points per game from stoppages to be ranked in the bottom handful the competition.
FREMANTLE
COULDN’T have thought we’d even have the Dockers in the finals mix after the first two rounds, consecutive losses that combined for a total of 131 points.
But here we are — the season where anything is possible.
Scoring remains the Dockers’ greatest weakness and it could come back to bite them.
Champion Data’s premiership measure has proven correct in 15 out of the last 16 years. It says teams must average more than 100 points and concede less than 86 points to reach flag standard, meaning the Dockers will need to get cracking.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: Make clearances count. Has scored 35 points per game from clearances.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: Need to score more. Averaging the league’s second-lowest total score at only 77 points per game and have scored least amount of points from turnovers.
SYDNEY
THEY took a while to get going, but the Swans are finally showing the football that took them to last year’s Grand Final — their third in five years.
But can it last?
The emerging young guns like Nic Newman and Oliver Florent lack finals experience, but benefit from older heads around them. And while those more experienced players still show flashes of their best, they’ll need to do it more in the back-end of the season to shore up the Swans’ chances.
Can’t afford to drop many from here, but would be defying the history books should they manage to do what they couldn’t against the Dogs last year.
Would be huge.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: Score, and stop others from scoring. Since Round 7, at least. Have hit their straps and rank top in the league for both points scored and points against.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: History. There has never been a side who has started the season 0-6 that has gone on to make finals, let alone win it all.
COLLINGWOOD
MAKING the finals was the pass mark for his job, coach Nathan Buckley had said.
But a flag? The Magpies still have a bit to tidy up.
Things could be very different had a few close results gone the other way, but have cleaned up their ball movement in recent weeks — finally discovering the corridor — and fired up in attack.
The midfield is ticking along nicely and pays dividends at clearances, and key players in there — namely skipper Scott Pendlebury — have plenty of finals experience.
Will be hoping Jamie Elliott is back sooner rather than later and need to capitalise more from turnover to make sides pay.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN: Stoppage beasts. Ranked among the best for clearance differential and points from clearance differential.
THE STAT THAT SAYS THEY CAN’T: Haven’t been able to punish turnovers, scoring just 49.1 points per game.
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