Recruiting expert Gary Buckenara looks at how things have gone so wrong for Adelaide and how the club can recover
Adelaide is paying the price for list decisions made years ago. And there is one big one that stands out. It would have been a gutsy move but this was the moment the Crows should have considered trading some big names.
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I feel for Matthew Nicks. He has inherited a team that has seemingly lost its connection and spirit.
But just where or how did it all go wrong?
I have taken a look back at the Crows list. In 2016 I ranked them as having 18 players of A and B grade standard.
In 2017 I ranked them as having 17 players in the same category — which fits into my model of having 15-plus A and B grade players to be able to contend for a premiership.
Since then the Crows have dramatically dropped away.
Last year, I ranked their list as having 10 players at an A and B grade level — with seven aged under-21 who were capable of fitting into that group within one-to-five years.
But this year they have fallen away again — they have just seven players of A and B grade quality and seven developing players who might rise to that level.
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Looking at the way the Crows approached the trading and draft periods in 2016 and 2017 they obviously felt they were in a window to win a premiership.
Indeed, they played off in a grand final in 2017 only to be thrashed by Richmond.
This is when the wheels fell off.
Following a disastrous pre-season camp in 2018 a wedge was seemingly driven between the club’s leaders, coaches and board.
They sent Don Pyke packing and appointed Matthew Nicks as coach.
He has had to pick up the pieces and try and bring together a fractured club.
Not only that, but I look at the 2018 national draft as a lost opportunity for the Crows given there were so many talented SA players available.
They should have done everything possible to get some multiple picks in the top 10 given that Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine and Connor Rozee were up for grabs.
Any of these three would have made a difference as they are the types of players the Crows desperately needed within their list model.
Yes, it is easy to say and much harder to do, especially with hindsight.
But that is the job of list managers and recruiters — work together to look at future drafts and the talent in them.
At that time, the Crouch brothers had currency with the Gold Coast Suns and Mitch McGovern wanted out.
So I believe they could have packaged up or used these three players to get at least one top 5 pick.
The problem for the Crows as I see the list is that the midfield is slow and the forward line has no bite at all since losing dangerous small forwards Charlie Cameron and Eddie Betts as well as mobile big men Josh Jenkins, McGovern and Hugh Greenwood.
It has left the club with limited forward options.
Taylor Walker is limited because of what appears to be back or hip issues. He can’t jump like he used to, is poor at ground level and slow.
Unfortunately, he has become a liability in the side apart from his leadership.
Once he reaches some upcoming milestones it should be time to look at a younger player such as Darcy Fogarty to take on a key role.
Tom Lynch is a high half-forward who has struggled because he is getting the best defenders each week, and instead of getting up the ground where he plays best he is having to stay closer to goal because of the Crows’ lack of structure.
Given the Crows lack of A and B grade players they need to go to the draft this year to add young talent and hope that players such as Fogarty, Chayce Jones, Fischer McAsey, Ned McHenry, Lachlan Murphy, Harry Schoenberg and Josh Worrell quickly develop into A and B-grade players.
It is super important for these players to be developed and nurtured so that they fulfil their talent.
But the environment has to change or improve. The club, as a whole, has to find a way to unite everyone with a vision for the future.
Even then it takes time and patience to see the list rejuvenation through to its completion. It could take between two and five years.
The Crows need to look at adding some outside speed with skill and another talented tall agile forward — a Tim O’Brien (Hawthorn) or Lukosius type.
It also needs to find or develop a couple of clever small forwards.
I think the Crows best back six players can hold up OK.
So it is the midfield, ruck back up for Reilly O’Brien and forward line that needs to be looked at closely.
They need to revamp with talented younger players and be brave by playing them and developing them.
The 2020 draft will hold some extra challenges for the Crows recruiters as the best area of talent is the NAB League in Victoria and it has been cancelled this year.
The Crows are definitely at the crossroads and it’s time for all the stakeholders within the club to smoke the peace pipe, devise a plan going forward and stick to that plan.
This is the only way forward for the Crows, in my opinion, as there is little value on their list to trade apart from captain Rory Sloane and some of its talented younger players.
But it would be a mistake to go down that pathway as I see it.
As I have often said, the list management and recruiting decisions you make three years ago affect your list today.
For the Crows, the decisions they made after 2017 and 2018 are now affecting the on-field performance.
This is why I have said often that list management and recruiting is one of the most important areas in a football club and I am amazed to see clubs appoint people without any real experience or success into these roles and that boards allow these decisions to go through.
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If the board believes it has the right people, then everyone must buy-in to the rebuild, back coach Matthew Nicks and be patient because success will be at least three years away.
The board also has to be prepared for more poor results to follow in the coming years as the rebuild takes shape.
But if the results do not improve after three years then obviously the board has backed the wrong people and should also accept the blame for the decisions or non-decisions they are about to make in 2020.
DRAW ANALYSIS: CAN CROWS AVOID WINLESS SEASON?
Matt Turner
As the Crows deal with the grim reality that Matthew Nicks is off to the worst start of any rookie coach in history and the perennially competitive club is 0-10, the focus is turning to what comes next.
Can Adelaide avoid being the first team to go winless in a season since Fitzroy in 1964?
And what changes will it make at the end of the campaign to get out of its predicament?
The Crows’ latest ignominy was an under-fire Melbourne kicking seven majors to one in the final term at Adelaide Oval on Wednesday night to blow a two-goal three-quarter time deficit to a 51-point hammering.
That fade-out came just four days after Nicks apologised to supporters for his side’s performance in a 69-point thumping by North Melbourne.
Dual Crows premiership coach Malcolm Blight said Adelaide, which was without a victory since August 3 last year and had lost 13 matches in a row, was going “as disastrous as anyone’s done for a lot of years” and the club was no certainty to avoid a winless season.
“From a grand final in 2017 to now, the downturn’s been enormous,” Blight told SEN.
“It’s been such a massive fall and such a quick fall.
“Those sides that have terrible years seem to win one … but you’ve got to remember, this is an unusual year and a 17-game season so you’re missing out on five more chances.”
Adelaide has just seven opportunities left to break its duck this season.
After hosting last year’s grand finalist Collingwood on Tuesday, the Crows will play fifth-placed Geelong in Adelaide in Round 13, then face Richmond (third), GWS (seventh), Western Bulldogs (eighth), Carlton (13th) and Hawthorn (14th).
Crows defender Luke Brown said he was shocked the club was 0-10 and, like Nicks 12 hours earlier, he remained confident of a win before season’s end.
“Absolutely – I’m really positive about that,” Brown said on Thursday.
“We’re not shying away from the fact it’s a hard road but we’re ready to embrace that challenge.”
While uncertainty remains about where the Crows’ next win is coming from, there is no doubt club officials will already be planning for next season, including another potential coaching restructure and squad overhaul, after a clean-out last year.
There have been calls for the Crows to beef-up their coaching department to help Nicks but any decisions will be challenged by the league’s soft cap reducing from $9.7 to $6.2 million.
Martin Mattner (defence) and Paul Thomas (development) were let go due to the COVID-19 crisis in April and March respectively.
Ben Hart (forwards) and Michael Godden (midfield) are believed to be out of contract at the end of this season.
Adelaide football manager Adam Kelly told SEN the club was yet to finalise its 2021 coaching structure but it would start discussions with everyone soon.
Nicks, whose contract ran until the end of 2022, said although the reduced soft cap presented a major challenge, the club would “find the best we can and develop people from within”.
On the playing front, Brad Crouch, Rory Atkins, Kyle Hartigan, Riley Knight and David Mackay head the club’s list of players out of contract at the end of the season, while Bryce Gibbs, who has a deal until the end of next year, remains on the outer.
Atkins, Knight and Gibbs were all dropped among nine changes for the clash with Melbourne.
All clubs will need to weigh up decisions for 2021 against the expected reduction in the salary cap and list sizes.
“There’s no doubt there’s some papers being stamped of players they’ve had a look at, put back (dropped), had a look at, put back,” Blight said.
“They’ve made it quite clear I reckon that this is the year we’re going to have a look at some of these kids that have been sitting in the wings and see what we’ve got.”
Two more of those youngsters, Lachlan Sholl and Harry Schoenberg, made their debuts on Wednesday night, making it eight first-gamers for the club this season – the most at the club since nine in 1999.
The Crows will add more talent at the draft, where they will almost certainly hold their best hand – picks No. 1, 12, 19 and 29 as it stands, and possibly No. 2 as well, if free agent Crouch leaves on a huge deal.
West Adelaide key forward/ruckman Riley Thilthorpe could be an option with the first selection and Kelly confirmed the Crows were closely tracking Luke Edwards, son of Crows great Tyson Edwards.
Blight, who famously cut club greats Chris McDermott, Tony McGuinness and Andrew Jarman as part of a huge list rebuild in 1996, 12 months before steering the Crows to their first flag, said the club should also seek to trade for SA players at rival teams.
In the immediate term, Adelaide will be targeting a breakthrough win against the Magpies – a team it has not beaten since 2016.
“It’s a great challenge,” Brown said.
The same can be said of how the struggling club turns its on-field fortunes around.
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Originally published as Recruiting expert Gary Buckenara looks at how things have gone so wrong for Adelaide and how the club can recover