Adelaide Crows burning questions: No. 1 pick contenders, trade period plans, list changes, Brad Crouch compensation
Who will they get with Pick 1? What compensation for Crouch? Is Neil Balme a real possibility? Who’s under pressure? Here are 10 burning questions that will be answered from this week and beyond at the Crows. HAVE YOUR SAY.
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As Adelaide players and staff gathered at a post-season function on Sunday, planning behind-the-scenes to resurrect the proud club from the bottom of the ladder was in full swing.
Armed with the first wooden spoon in their history but Pick 1 in the draft and a preparedness to boost their playing list and football department, the Crows are determined to climb out of the abyss in 2021.
Now that their season is officially done and dusted, we look at 10 burning questions fans are asking.
1. Who’s in the mix for Pick 1?
Adelaide has secured Pick 1 and will have two in the top 10 thanks to a trade with GWS last year which gives them options to go for a midfielder and key position player early on.
“In what’s a compromised draft this year unfortunately we haven’t had 12 months to watch the Victorian boys play and there’s a fair bit of talent that comes out of that space,” coach Matthew Nicks said on Saturday night.
“It’s a matter of us making sure we’ve got our research done correctly and we get the right players in to fit what we’re trying to do.
“We’ll definitely look at midfield ... we feel like we’ve got some great midfielders in there but you often look a those really talented players that get through the midfield at under-18 or under-16 level, they’ve often got great endurance, great speed and ability to find the footy.
“So you’re always looking for those style of players but this year’s an interesting one in the draft, there are some key position players who look like they’re going to go pretty early.
“So we have to look at that where our picks come in, what sort of player looks like going around that mark and we’ll continue to add to all our areas but always have a look in that midfield zone.”
Athletic 194cm player Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is considered the best player in this year’s draft, but the Western Bulldogs have priority access to him through their Next Gen Academy although the Crows are expected to bid for him and force the Dogs to pay top price.
From there Adelaide is understandably keen on home grown product Riley Thilthorpe from West Adelaide who at 201cm presents a long-term key forward/ruck option.
But there’s also WA key forward Logan McDonald who has been compared to Richmond’s Tom Lynch, and Victorian midfielder/forward Elijah Hollands who did his ACL in February but remains very high on draft boards.
2. What is their sales pitch to recruits?
Nicks was asked this very question in the wake of the Round 18 loss to Richmond.
Because other than cash, how does Adelaide present an attractive proposition to try to lure quality players to its football club when it is in the middle of a rebuild and there’s no guarantee of finals on the horizon?
For instance other than to come home, why would Jack Graham leave premiership contender Richmond where he is getting a regular game, to play at Adelaide?
Things might be clearer for Jackson Hateley who only got six games at GWS this season and is looking for opportunity but other stars may need some convincing.
“It’s really giving them an insight into what’s happening in the walls,” Nicks said.
“Given them an understanding of what group we’ve got, we’ve got an amazing group, unfortunately this year we haven’t been able to show that externally being locked down in a bubble but some of the people we have on field and off are incredible.
“They’ve been able to turn it around and to speak to anyone about what we’re looking at going forward, there’s so much positive going on from a development point of view.
3. Is Neil Balme a realistic possibility?
Adelaide is very much in the hunt to secure his services for next year.
Balme has been a key figure at Geelong, Collingwood and Richmond in their premiership runs over the past 15 years and given the ambiguity surrounding his role at the Tigers - as a ‘senior club advisor’ rather than in their football department - he appears at least open to offers.
The Crows have a first-year coach, football manager and head of leadership who would all benefit from working closely with Balme who has an affinity with SA given his links to Norwood and at 68 would have another rebuild still in him.
“It’s quite an easy sell speaking to (potential) players and staff,” Nicks said.
“We’re all about getting better and I’ve said it before we’ll look to develop from within, we’ve done that all year and improved out of sight as a staff, players and coaching group.
“But we’ll also have a look externally and that’s the question you’re asking, you’d like to think we can attract some really good, experienced people to the club because of what they’ve seen over the last month on the field and what I’m able to talk them through about the last six to eight weeks.”
4. Who wins the best-and-fairest?
The Malcolm Blight Medal appears to be a race between two players - one standing 177cm and the other 202cm.
As Brodie Smith says, the gold jacket will either need to be a XXL or XS when it’s presented on Friday night.
Rory Laird already has one from 2018 and his move from half-back into the midfield this year has been a revelation, but hitting it to him with near perfect chemistry has been ruckman Reilly O’Brien who Nicks described as their most consistent player all year.
“When we weren’t quite getting stoppage done early in the year and not quite our contest, Reilly was still competing each week and working hard,” he said.
“I feel like his last month has been his best and it may not be looked at that way externally, but his connection he’s been able to build with his midfielders, he's been really predictable with the way he played.
“I think he’s taken a step forward and matured as a ruckman in the latter part of this season so that’s a really good sign for us going forward.”
Brisbane recruit Ben Keays may well be leading the count at the half-way point of the season while Brodie Smith and Daniel Talia should also poll votes but may not be enough to challenge for the gold jacket.
5. What is realistic compensation for Brad Crouch?
If Adelaide is going to lose Brad Crouch then this would appear to be the perfect year for it to happen.
Compensation for losing free agents comes in the form of either a first-round pick (after a club’s first selection), end of first round, second round, end of second round or third round.
The pick is determined by a points allocation system based on the player’s age and the value of their new deal.
The AFL does not disclose the exact formula but the deal must trigger a threshold to determine the value of the compensation pick.
If the offer for Crouch meets the top threshold and Adelaide is awarded a first-round pick then it would be Pick 2 which is immediately after their Pick 1.
Similarly both Gold Coast and Melbourne got Pick 3, after their first selection, when they lost Tom Lynch and James Frawley to Richmond and Hawthorn.
Where it is not advantageous for a club to lose a star free agent is when they finish at the top of the ladder like Hawthorn in 2013 when Lance Franklin joined Sydney on a nine-year $10m offer.
That triggered a first-round pick but it happened to be Pick 19 because Hawthorn only had Pick 18 in the draft.
Clubs aren’t always satisfied with their compensation. Richmond was fuming last year when they only got a second round pick for losing two-time premiership player Brandon Ellis to Gold Coast.
Brisbane and Geelong both got end-of-first-round picks (18 and 19) for losing Tom Rockliff and Steven Motlop to Port Adelaide on four-year deals reported to be worth between $2 and $3m each.
On that basis if Crouch signs a four-year deal worth $500,000-a-season Adelaide can expect a similar end-of-first-round result.
But anything above that, or even a shorter deal worth more money per year, could guarantee Pick 2.
6. Who needs a big pre-season?
What happened to Ned McHenry this year? He debuted in the Showdown and played eight games but nothing after Round 11 although he was being managed with some minor groin and hip issues.
The first-round draft pick from 2018 is yet to establish whether he’s a midfielder or small forward at AFL level and in his eight games four of them only resulted in single-figure disposal counts.
He is already an elite runner but needs a big summer to develop his game to make sure he’s one of the first picked next year.
Darcy Fogarty is another first-rounder who should embrace pre-season this year. There was a moment in the last quarter on Saturday when Fogarty showed what he’s capable of but it’s time Crows fans saw it consistently rather than in patches.
Leading from deep forward he crunched a pack and flew over two opponents to take a contested mark then went back and kicked the set shot from outside 50m.
Granted he missed a big chunk of footy with a shoulder injury this year and the Covid break at the start didn’t help anyone but Fogarty needs to fire in 2021 if Adelaide is to take another step.
7. Who’s in trouble?
It would appear that Riley Knight, Jordan Gallucci, Patrick Wilson and Ben Crocker’s time at the Crows is up, while Ben Davis and Myles Poholke would be nervous.
That’s in addition to Rory Atkins and Bryce Gibbs already announcing their departures while Kyle Hartigan and David Mackay are out of contract but may have to wait until after the trade period for a new deal.
Players will have their exit meetings with the club on Wednesday and Thursday but may not be any clearer on their futures until the AFL determines list sizes for next season.
“It’s like the entire season, be prepared to be flexible because we don’t have the information,” Nicks said.
“We have our players they’ll exit Wednesday and Thursday and they’ll be conversations around unfortunately at this point it’s not a lock on what we’re going to do into 2021.
“But we’d like to give them as much information as we can and expect going forward.
“There’s a lot of clubs in the same boat, we understand why, it’s been a season that we’ve done whatever we can to be flexible.
“I think the AFL has done a fantastic job, at this point it would be really nice for our players for us to have more clarity around what we see going forward but we’ve just got to work through that over the next month.”
8. Is ROB flying solo again next year?
But the Crows haven’t got a genuine second ruck on their list with Frampton and Himmelberg capable of pinch-hitting but not leading the ruck on their own, and doubt over whether Kieran Strachan keeps his spot on the list.
While some clubs are playing two ruckmen regularly like Port Adelaide with Lycett and Ladhams, the Crows appear content with O’Brien flying solo.
“That will depend a little bit on quarters (length). We’ve had some great development in some of our other talls,” Nicks said.
“Elliott finished off the year really well, more forward of the ball and providing that presence forward but that gives us an option and I think he’s pretty solid when he gets in the ruck and he quite enjoys being around the ball.
“Billy Frampton I thought took another step late in the year and probably not quite the opportunity for him at the end but I’d like to think that depending on where the game goes we still feel Rob has an advantage in that space - he’s an elite runner considering his size and it’s something we’ll continue to look at.”
9. Who’s to come back in and what do they need?
There’s been plenty of talk around who the Crows may bring in at the draft and trade period but two players who missed huge amounts of footy this year will be like prized recruits next season.
Tom Doedee made an encouraging return from a knee reconstruction and showed he can be the elite defender he was before going down, and Wayne Milera signed a five-year deal just before having foot surgery.
The pair played just 11 games between them this year and will benefit from an early start to
pre-season, particularly Milera who remains in a moon boot.
As for what it will target in the draft or in trade week, scoring should be a priority given they managed just 48 points per game which was the worst in the competition.
“Reidy (Justin Reid) and I and Hamish (Ogilvie) have a great connection on what we believe we need going forward,” Nicks said.
10. Who was their best first-year player?
For all their new blood this season, Adelaide did not get a single rising star nomination in the first 17 rounds but that could change this week.
Lachlan Sholl had 19 disposals against Richmond which followed his best-on-ground performance against Carlton and the cumulative affect could warrant the final nomination of the season.
But whether he’s the best first-year player they’ve had remains up for debate. Will Hamill was outstanding off half-back before going out of the team with concussion in Round 10, Shane McAdam while technically in his second season still made his debut and looks a permanent fixture at the level while Andrew McPherson and Harry Schoenberg showed plenty of promise.
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Originally published as Adelaide Crows burning questions: No. 1 pick contenders, trade period plans, list changes, Brad Crouch compensation